What about last Jan? We had cold then, didn't we? And I can remember other cold Januarys since 2016 as well...and a few where the nina just didn't deliver favorable tracks and we were cold enough but missed the precip. So I can see one example (Feb 2020) where you can say warm...(maybe another Feb 2021), but I'm not seeing the warm Januarys you're seeing here. (Again, last year around this time we had a couple threats! And Feb just did what nina Febs do, imo)