Maestrobjwa

Oh you seriously moving?

Now it sounds like the hobby is making YOU miserable, lol

Well start a new period after the next 5 years and see where we at

So then...why don't ya just give up the hobby since it's obviously never gonna get better? I mean correct me if I'm wrong but it sounds like it's making YOU miserable now, lol

Overall a colder run than 6z

I don't think the "why" part is settled, tbh I mean like he said it could be some of THAT, but it sounds like others things are at play too. While it is indeed the worst period, do we give it longer to see if it's permanent? But trust me, I'm in a better place than I was 5 days ago. I'm just starting to see through the facade that this means more in life that is perpetuated by overexposure to this forum. You get exposed to a perceived negative long enough you start to believe it objectively is and life is worse because of it.

Why do you say the 0z EPS is trending that way? Looked quite similar to 12z to my eyes.

I'd imagine if there's gonna be a cave we see like...in the 2-3 days? For sniffing out the general patter D9-11, is pretty close. Seems the EPS/GEPS think the abnormal nino-like pattern continues but with more cold. Now so far, despite the frustrations with temps...has this pattern really acted like a nina? I mean I don't remember any being this warm on the front end, tbh. And of course what's happening in California, the split flow thing...Any history of another nina that behaved like this one?

SSDD?

I'm trying to understand what happened in 2015-16 though. Why was that different from the other super niños? And let's just say it's the SSTs...how did the switch flip to...whatever that quickly as opposed to gradually?

So are you genuinely perplexed or are you trying not to say what it is?

Ain't good for anybody mental health, lol I am finding that too much exposure makes ya see the lack of snow as a bigger catastrophe in life than it actually is. Disappointing? Absolutely. But in life context? Not as big as it appears...but when you're on here all the time when we're struggling for snow, you'd think the world is literally ending--but it's not quite reality.

So then...what's causing the SE ridge being as strong as modeled? Warm ocean or?

Alright so that's two caniptions over hr 384 today...lol (despite this look being better than 12z I think)

Oh no I wasn't talking about a specific threat. Someone commented on the setup in general and why some like the thump-rain scenarios.

Assuming it happens during the day, lol But ya got a limited time and then...splish splash

Yeah I mean you can barely enjoy the scenery before it goes poof! And then you're imagining what could've been, lol (like the storm last year that got yanked NW by another NS piece) Just doesn't quite satisfy, lol

Question: How do you identify an STJ at the 500mb level?

I get ya...yeah that option what just be dumbdy-dumb fail, smh So what causes an SE ridge, anyway? Warm water?

Maybe we should save the freakout for if it actually happens? Lol I mean I know it's not impossible, the last 7 years, etc but...we ain't there yet, man. I wouldn't even let my brain go there unless we get closer and it starts getting support. Question: Is it overly simplistic to say a SE ridge is caused by a warm Atlantic? Not sure I understand exactly what influences it.

Maybe this is over simplistic, but...even if the two meet squarely in the middle, that must be better than what we've had, right? Lol And I personally like the period towards the end of the month/Feb...feels like we can get another dice roll at least! (I don't count this coming weekend as a dice roll, lol)

Oh my goodness--will certainly pray she gets better soon! P.S. I snickered a bit at "family chase"

Man it's been rough here lately if Ravens and snow are two of your main winter pleasures, lol I mean dang!

For right now...I think it's just pattern tracking, basically. Ain't no point trying to track a particular threat until the pattern gets a little more favorable.

Ya don't think that would be a tad soon? I'd thought we'd need until the weekend to flush out the warmth, lol