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Maestrobjwa

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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. Maestrobjwa
    What'd I do this time? Like what did I do wrong today?
  2. Maestrobjwa
    Better than measuring off the dang concrete like I'd been doin' till last year, lolol
  3. Maestrobjwa
    Thanks for the write-up! Gives a great explanation of things to look for on future model runs. Even with all the imperfections, this chance still is better than what we've had (0, lol)
  4. Maestrobjwa
    This is why I said I didn't believe in suppression this time, lol SE ridge will not be beaten down quietly...and we ain't had any weak waves (which would be the only likely suppresion scenario), and this one so far doesn't look weak on guidance. Still a long ways to go, actually...
  5. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah you right...it's very early. So I'll just say suppression would be befuddling--because that SE ridge would have to be flattened even further down to an extent we haven't seen this year, right? But again, anything is possible at this range and it's not a good idea to take anything off the table. Got suspicions, but no certainties.
  6. Maestrobjwa
    Even on there--that's just a regular cutter that run
  7. Maestrobjwa
    I wouldn't call this a Miller B. This wave is coming straight from the south.
  8. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah I'd pretty much bet the table against suppression. So this either hits us flush or cuts--a GFS would be befuddling after all the SE ridge this season
  9. Maestrobjwa
  10. Maestrobjwa
    @Ralph Wiggum Lo and behold the EPS goes and pops a...PNA ridge (did I identify that right?)
  11. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah I get ya. But yeah the pac doesn't appear that it wants to go hostile either as of now. But, still a way to go, and yes--I think at this juncture the Atl probably is more important since it's only been our biggest snow nemesis, lol
  12. Maestrobjwa
    Yep...pretty much a run. Still Day 10 though--very general idea
  13. Maestrobjwa
    Meanwhile Euro got a little slider at hr 156...
  14. Maestrobjwa
    Hey look! A positive tick inside 200 hrs (and not on an off-hour run either) Not yet a trend, but...we ain't had even this much at this range yet, lol Let's see if it carries over the next couple Zs... @Ralph Wiggum Why sad emoji? SER looks a bit better here, no?
  15. Maestrobjwa
    So basically a Cat 5 under each wing? Sounds a bit turbulent
  16. Maestrobjwa
    Canadian tried to do the thing...a bit suppresed this run, but at least it ain't show another cutter (every model run that DOESN'T show a cutter for that time frame is good..no, GREAT run, haha)
  17. Maestrobjwa
    I'm gonna go out on a limb and say if next week does indeed fail it won't be from suppresion...I'd bet my next paycheck on that too if I were a gambler, lol Ain't no way with that ridge being what it is that the moisture gets suppresed! Now interestingly only the 18z gfs has shown a cutter...everybody else has shown moisture south. Something to watch, I suppose...
  18. Maestrobjwa
    Whoa!!! Congratulations man! Well that certainly trumps even snow--yeah it's not worth it to have any attention divided to what's been going on. P.S. If it snows after your child is born we will certainly need to give it (boy or girl?) a username already
  19. Maestrobjwa
    Absolutely agree with your point about the op runs and such. But I will say though...if you indeed maintain general optimism for the season even in the face of this...sir that is commendable!
  20. Maestrobjwa
    And you know what? Getting modoki niño next winter might not even matter dude...like our historically best enso state. I mean...ordinarily you'd be encouraged by it but I'm not so sure it even works. And the SER...do we even know if that calms down next year? Smh
  21. Maestrobjwa
    Now in particular I was referring to the SER.
  22. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah but again though...given this year? I have my doubts...what, is the dang SER gonna just suddenly disappear at the start of March? Lol I mean I know the nina is on the way out, but even still...ehh
  23. Maestrobjwa
    How would that happen with SE ridge being what it is?
  24. Maestrobjwa
    Isn't this rather excessive even for a nina, though?
  25. Maestrobjwa
    I have muted expectations...but just going off of history...even we aren't THAT mediocre. If we can't break through with something big, I'd bet we'll get something where we measure just enough not to break that futility record, haha
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