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mappy

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Everything posted by mappy

  1. mappy
    60% chance with an enhanced risk. oh boy.
  2. mappy
    i hadn't checked 12z NAM yet. I see what you mean though. It has some nice cells pre-front around 18-19z, followed by the front later on 00-01z or so. i just know that we tend to need a lot of things to work out well here, and even one thing failing sends everything crashing downward. im sure somewhere there will be thunder and lightning. i'm just not sure how "enhanced risk" worthy it will be, ya know?
  3. mappy
    ^^ said it yesterday. without the lift, we won't get anything discrete out ahead of the front. LWX agrees.
  4. mappy
    pretty typical. like high risk said, i think we still see some storms, but whether they are as severe as some of us would like to be, remains to be seen.
  5. mappy
    SPCs 13z outlook wording for those who don't know where to read it, or are too lazy i remain neutral for now. all the ingredients are there for discrete cells to develop.
  6. mappy
    Agreed. I think the 5% tornado threat per SPC is generous for us. If any one wants to see a good storm, they have to hope things go discrete before the main line comes through. otherwise, you'll get embedded cells in the line that won't be nearly as exciting. ... if you're a weenie like me who wants a really good storm
  7. mappy
    updraft swaths, from 3K NAM La Plata?
  8. mappy
    SPC overnight outlook seems uncertain for today. lots of the factors in play, which seems par for the course for us around here. If we can get out of the clouds and warm quickly today, it will bode well for us later.
  9. mappy
    drive an hour or so north and you'll find it.
  10. mappy
    Sure can! Ill be home
  11. mappy
    includes Baltimore and Frederick now
  12. mappy
    thank you!
  13. mappy
    can you provide me with a good link for it? i haven't looked around to see if the paid sites have them or not. appreciate your insight, as always!
  14. mappy
    you know those are all things we need every time and tend to fail on lol if i was in Scranton, id feel pretty good about seeing some severe tomorrow. ahh, i hadn't looked at either one of those. i've always considered them weenie models (i honestly don't know enough about them) I'd be happy with thunder, I know our chances down here aren't nearly as good as those in PA/NY. But still has a chance to be a fun event to watch unfold, even if we don't get the goods.
  15. mappy
    it can work out if timing is right. otherwise if storms pop up they tend to become a blob of messiness vs discrete cells
  16. mappy
    As usual for us down here, its all dependent on how north the warm sector gets before the cold front comes through. Need enough daytime heating and lift, otherwise we see nothing. PA has a better shot because they get the better ingredients near the warm front and the lift.
  17. mappy
    yeah but its no better in PA. advertises a couple larger cells in NNE PA towards NJ, but that's it. its a very broken line of storms ahead of the front, with nothing popping up out ahead. very weird to see when there is an enhanced risk and strong wording from State college.
  18. mappy
    LWX seems uncertain in their morning AFD https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off State College though, their AFD is pretty good weenie material https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 06z NAM is pretty boring, so we shall see today brings. But I think the further north you are, the better your chances of seeing something worth a damn. All the best stuff will be in PA
  19. mappy
    SPC outlook for tomorrow -- enhanced baby! more details soon. HM was tweeting about it last night, worth a look if you're bored.
  20. mappy
    yes, public schools closed out there today. OU closed too.
  21. mappy
    they have done well so far. saw a couple tornadoes friday, some structure saturday then traveled yesterday. looks like they will be in the texas panhandled area today. doubtful they head towards OKC.
  22. mappy
    lol storms
  23. mappy
    trying to clear out in Hunt Valley
  24. mappy
    overcast and 60 in baltimore county
  25. mappy
    yup, that one!
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