PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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I agree. I did the same thing. For Southern Wake it could be 4-6 hours of snow/ice before changeover. I then wonder about conditions after that and refreeze/black ice potential.
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Another Wake county special. North of 64 looks like at least a mix. South of 64 = rain. (12Z GFS)
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True, but I could see some snow and then changeover to rain that washes it all away.
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Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses? Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out. I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.
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Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake. I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need. Borderline = rain.
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Remember that ensembles are much more reliable at this point....wait until euro ensembles before getting down in the dumps.
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I'm more interested in the euro ensembles than deterministic, this far out.
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I think that's very fair at this point. It is only Monday. Plenty of time to make adjustments to schedules if need be.
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Definitely a strong CAD signature...notice the warm air to the west of the Apps. My personal forecast still favors your normal CAD areas with a rain/ice/snow mix in Central NC. We need the high to be a little stronger or the models to underestimate surface temps, which they normally do.
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For the Raleigh area, I prefer to see a suppressed look and lower totals at this time. Too amped and too far north spells warm-nose for our area. The only way to get a huge storm is to have some other dynamics play a role during the system to give a prolonged precip event. Too early to see those details. When will the players be able to be sampled? Wednesday/Thursday?
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
PackGrad05 replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I know that. I meant, is it simply surface temps that are causing that discrepancy? -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
PackGrad05 replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I'm in Willow Spring in southern wake and it is not sticking to my roads. Yet, 12 miles to my northwest, roads are covered. What difference does 12 miles make? Is it just surface temps? -
The temperatures will only drop if the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate for a sustained period of time. As soon as that lets up or stops, then temperatures go right back up.
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Really surprised how much the SREF is showing for RDU. I'm not buying it at all. I'd cut down those amounts by 75% or more.
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It is exciting because it is the first event of the season for a lot of us, but I agree with her statements. Fun to see snow flakes flying, but I'm not cancelling any of my saturday plans because of it.
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I'm beginning to wonder if Raleigh will ever get a good snowstorm anymore...always a warm nose. I also agree that this is a NW piedmont event.
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the 9Z sref did increase for RDU... Which is surprising given some of the latest model trends. I know the SREF can be overdone, though.
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The line is always through Wake County. Hilarious how that always happens.
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You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January? (that was way less marginal looking than this one) I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.
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Both the GFS and NAM bufkits are showing something frozen... though the NAM has more of a frozen mix. In addition, the SREF plumes show a little bit for RDU, but not much. For my area, southern wake, I've seen this type of scenario a million times. Cold rain while I strain my eyes to see some flakes mix in. If temperatures were colder it would be a different story. And today's 70 degrees and sunshine aren't doing any favors for soil temperatures.
