PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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I would really love to see this happen tomorrow. We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise. Models are looking good. Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.
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I'd love to get another little burst of snow tonight/tomorrow since we didn't get a lot of snow with this round.
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Apologies, I meant Raleigh. And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary. I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day. I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed. We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.
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I was referring to Raleigh. Temperatures in Charlotte may actually stay at 32 for much longer which causes the ice accrual.
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important point. Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night. Lots of melting to be had. Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads. Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.
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Taken verbatim, southern wake gets about 4-5 hours of snow while northern wake could get another 2-3 hours... The subsequent rain will wash away any snow that accumulated.
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My official Wake county forecast: Extreme southern wake near JoCo/Harnett = 0-1" of snow and minor glazing. Central Wake = 1-2 inches of snow - minor glazing. Northern Wake = 3-5 inches, minor glazing.
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Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map. I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.
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Southern Wake looks like it will get blanked... or less than 1". I'm just hoping the freezing rain stays away!
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I don't think they are garbage. I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps. In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.
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SREF mean is 2" for RDU with MANY members lower than that... Not looking great...lots of mixing and ice I'm afraid.
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I'm more interested in short/medium range high-res models at this point than globals. I think RAH and other areas may cut down their totals for central NC, or at least keep them the same. I predict I'll be watching the coefficient correlation on my Radarscope app for the mixing line quite a bit... in southern Wake.
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I think we see WWA for central/eastern counties later today. I don't see Wake going under WSW
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That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday. Lots of QPF left after that time.
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Alan Huffman tweeted about the NAM. Iciest of the models and if it continues, he may have to change his call map to add more ice.
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Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017.
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Still not a great run for Wake. I could realistically see parts of Wake county get blanked on this. I don't see anything proving otherwise based on soundings and model data.
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Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him. Temperatures just aren't great for Wake. Lots of rain. Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy. I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake.
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I'm pretty shocked at some of the high totals I see for Wake from some of the mets that are usually conservative. I am not making a map because I really only forecast for the Wake area. If I did, I would have 1-3" of snow for Wake, 3" in the NW and 1" in SE. My reasons: Medium range models show temperatures borderline and warm in Central NC. Soundings also show a very borderline event with a warm nose at times. It is very hard to overcome the warm once it is there. Mixing and wet snow will cut down on ratios considerably.
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Southern Wake still sees a changeover, as usual. I'm interesting to see the next NAM run. It does a much better job at the thermal profiles than GFS.
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Meteorology is different than modelology. Models can say one thing, but looking at the actual pattern and understanding what can actually happen is why meteorologists have their job. Surface temps as well as temperatures aloft have been suspect to me for RDU the entire week. A clown map should be used to see where the heaviest snow will fall, while ignoring amounts. To me, central NC may see some snow, but will mostly be a cold rain with maybe some sleet pellets mixed in at times. I would be SHOCKED for anyone in Wake to see more than 1 inch of snow on the ground, and you may want to snap a photo of it if it happens because the rain after will wash it away.
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interesting! Yeah I'm going to be looking at bufkit and sref plumes a lot in coming days.
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Interesting point that I think is important to remember: The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick. A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain. I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.
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Greg Fishel just said either a rain or snow event. He isn't predicting a lot of mixing or in between.
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I mentioned this earlier but it got swamped in the discussion. I think one of the reasons RAH isn't sold yet is surface temperatures. The surface temps just don't look that great during the event. There will be a lot of melting and cold rain. The cold temps really don't get entrenched until Monday night/Tuesday.
