Yeoman

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

HPC certainly doesn’t think the second wave will be south. When in doubt go with the pros.

10% chance of 4".. lock it up!

19 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I mean, it’s not the 40 inches @stormtracker was hoping for but it’s acceptable.

12" is his limit

The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1.

48 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Kinda poops out when it gets up to us tho.  Don't care..main takeway is it caved hard.

plowable?

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

For one last look. Pivotal

 

Short Pump isn't getting 9.2

Just now, m045400 said:

I have been on these boards for ten years.  I put a lot of faith in them for years, but as the season's have progressed, it is a constant buildup with "this data and this data" but it seldom plays out.  I am not a meteorologist, i'm a fighter pilot, but we obviously follow the weather.  Every storm has been the same.  It seldom plays out as modeled.  I'm sure someone will say "go to banter" and someone will say " then stop reading the thread".  That's fine, i know a lot of you on here have insecurities and that's ok.  You definitely have to have a touch of nerd in you to post/read this stuff.  Happy Monday.  

Unless it can be controlled it will be largely unpredictable, especially something like the atmosphere where countless chain reactions happen simultaneously. It's a miracle they are as good as they are.. 

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Deformed freezing rain.  First time for everything, lol.  And yes this is not a completely serious post.

Can you zoom in to see the green spot over DC proper?

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

That looks like a banana high at 141, yes?

Plantain

7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

still going at this point, most of us back to snow.

Maybe the 12th time is the charm

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL. Yes I know but typically with a precip event there won’t be that type of differential especially with cold air pressing south. 

It snowed at 37 degrees in my backyard today

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I wonder why the surface temps are so warm on that map. Doesn’t seem to jive with those 850’s. 

Because 850mb is a mile from the surface?

13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Didn’t see this posted but the Euro control is a huge hit.  

Add all of these day 5-6 snow maps up and DCA has 150" on the year

16 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Veterans Day 87 was 63 the day before, wasn’t it?

Feb '87 was also in the upper 40s the day before 11" fell at DCA

1 hour ago, high risk said:

When the model that struggles the most with maintaining cold air damming has a solid signal for a long-duration cold air damming event, I definitely take notice.

At the same time, doesn't it struggle with overdoing cold several days out?

Even using a slanted ruler I got 0.0".. just a hair under forecast

40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I still live in leesburg but have a "friend" in Sykesville 

He's in a pretty good location for this one

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm still trying to learn the Sykesville area for storms...I pretty much know leesburg like the back of Ji's neck but here not so much...like I'm stunned Columbia and Ellicott city aren't getting what I'm getting now...literally 15 minutes away 

Sykesville? Your location shows Leesburg

Mostly Rain/Some Snow mix in DC thanks to 37 degrees..0.0"

Good thing LWX and AKQ radars are down

20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement 

the ow confidence malarkey needs to go.  I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence

Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like  sweet sour . You think it is low probability?  Thats  not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast  without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers. 

 

NWS released a statement that Nostradamus was unavailable for this afternoon's discussion. They will make it up with winning lottery numbers later..

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Call LWX and tell them to hurry with their AFD.  There are important weenies out there that need this.

In the meantime I believe Sue Palka just tweeted her forecast

Will it be puking fatties?

I was just listening to WAVA while doing my pilates and they mentioned highs in the 60s for Sunday.... who do I believe???

27 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

On Channel 5 News this morning they were saying 1 - 2 inches with a mix ending as rain this Sunday. I'm confused. They didn't even indicate that totals could be higher. 

I'm confused as to why you would give a s*** about what channel 5 says?

42 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Serious question from a novice and my apologies in advance for my ignorance. 
I see what the models are projecting, and get there will be low dews and can calculate a wet bulb.  Yet, with temps on Saturday around 50 during the day, clouding up during the evening, and the inability in the immediate metro to cool down even to forcasted lows most nights (supposed to be 35 last night and never dropped below 40, and even last Friday night during the “very cold” stretch barely  ducked under 25,) how will this ever be cold enough to support accumulating snow?  I have seen dynaimc heavy snow accumulate at 34-35. I get it. But how can we be sure it won’t be just cloudy at 42 heading into the event in the immediate metro? Is just robust dynamic cooling? Again, sorry if this a stupid question. 

I remember calling NWS when I was 15 the day before the Feb '87 storm and asking the same question. It was in the upper 40s a few hours prior to the snow starting.