Yeoman

8 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM".....

  - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area.    All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest.

  - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error.    It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF:

        Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet.    Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening.

 

Why run the model if it's known to be flawed?

It kicked every other model's ass back with our only other storm in Dec

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

The Canadian tpv is way north of the gfs but the storm isn't much more north. There are other influences

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

i think we can safely add TPV to the weenie bingo card

43 minutes ago, mappy said:

Maybe, but I mentioned it because WXUSAF lives in that area, and I thought he’d like to know. 

I'd wait for Al Roker's take before drawing conclusions

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

If the para is becoming the new gfs in a month, I am putting my stock in it.

Unless it doesn't show what you want, of course

In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though.

Anything over an inch is a crush job when you've tallied .6" over nearly 2 winters

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

It’s not great but if you blend the guidance from GFS, GEFS, CMC, GEPS, and EPS, we’re still in the game for something.

I sure hope that's liquid equivalent

2 hours ago, frd said:

Exceptionally good look considering 276 hours out.  All aboard ! 

Maybe 12 days out will do better than 10

Time to play "the models under-do CAD" card?

Next run will show rain in Chicago

1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

DT posted this snowfall map late last night for the storm early next week. Seems like he is thinking the heaviest stuff might be in SW Virginia.    

Looks like 2018

Snow block continues to impress!

If you want snow go to Hawaii

"URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Honolulu HI

338 AM HST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG

ISLAND SUMMITS...

.An upper level disturbance will keep clouds and snow showers in

the forecast for the Big Island summits of Maunakea and Maunaloa

through the day.

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Thanks Dave so yes...do you have the other Canadien?

The one that requires a stereoscope to decipher

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Doesn't that look like the Canadian?

The Canadien

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is a hopeful sigh...first wave washed out 2nd wave--takes southern route

Congrats Chicago!

5 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

BAMWX- not buying the cold

Bam Margera?

31 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

Pretty

 

 

Another late Jan climo map for 15 days - valid for any given year

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Unfortunately not.  Looks like the primary makes it into South MI

Not bad for the strongest blocking known to man

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m gonna hang my hat on the fact that the pattern looks good. Mainly because that’s the only think I can hang it on.

The block is working wonders on blocking snow and cold.. thats about it

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

exasperating.   I'm gonna hand in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart.

Just think - we only needed it to hold together for another 60 runs

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

LFG.

The 28th storm is looking good so far.  Nice H pressing down from Canada.  Solid confluence.  Big area of precip over TX blossoming.  

Oof, looks like it'll be OTS..

I'm liking the Valentines day storm - better confluence and more amped

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

My weatherbug app is showing a snow threat next Thurs/Fri.  It's been more accurate than any of the actual models so there's that...

I wouldn't count my chickens until we hear what Sue Palka has to say

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the Eps 72 hour mean day 12-15.

Honestly you won’t see a stronger signal at that range. Both GEFS and EPS are sniffing something there. It’s been on the GFS op also 

 

If day 5 maps can’t get it right, day 15 is def the way to go

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too.   Dark days in the land.  I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff.  

or at least 10 days