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Yeoman

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    February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been.  I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean.  But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things!  When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does.  Now... I do something else.  Invest my time more wisely.  

    However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting.  Look at this PD threat.  It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on.  Thats valuable.  We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at.  The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance.  We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways.  The details weren't known until later.  So it depends what your expectations are.  IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that.  But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.  

    Speaking of investing your time wisely, all of those words boil down to this: Long-range forecasting is valuable for identifying threat windows in advance, but it’s useless for details, making you dumb to expect day 10+ guidance to behave like a near-term forecast. 

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    February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

    The -AO trough is lifting out, as the Polar Vortex places over Alaska at Days 3-5, flushing out the cold and warming up the US pattern. Then the N. Pacific High starts building and establishing. At that point we are already in the Upper 30s, with no cold air reinforcement: The -NAO/-AO is weakening and lifting out. The N. Pacific ridge then gets very strong, a >5820dm block. That does overwhelm weak things in February where the wavelengths are longer. Of course, the further along we go, the warmer it gets. 

    You’re assuming a clean, immediate pattern flip that the guidance doesn’t actually show. Cold erosion is gradual, downstream response lags the Pacific, and a strong NPAC ridge doesn’t guarantee East Coast warmth without a confirmed height rise, which isn’t locked in yet.

    February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

    The original thought was that we were coming out of deep -AO, rising back to neutral, so this could be the big storm. But the Pacific pattern is entering an extreme, and a now projected +450dm -PNA north Pacific High pressure is going to in trend, squash that EC trough, to at least make it warm enough to rain imo. The NAO ridge is right over top, so when the Pacific pattern changes it sometimes take 3 days to impact us downstream, this one is part of the now-time pattern, with a trough perhaps sticking beneath upper latitude ridging. The GEFS has basically brought the NAO to neutral, as you pointed out and the EPS is weakly negative. At this range the ensemble guidance and big picture pattern is the way to go. 

    That take assumes the Pacific immediately overwhelms everything downstream, which isn’t how these transitions usually work. A strong NPAC ridge doesn’t automatically squash an EC trough, especially with lingering -AO influence and a trough tucked under higher-latitude ridging. Neutral NAO doesn’t equal warm rain by default. At this range, ensembles are smoothing over key timing and structural details, so declaring this dead based on a broad Pacific signal seems dumb.

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    January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, overcautionisbad said:

    I see. Well, honestly this think is probably only going to hit Hampton Roads. I just know from experience as someone near Richmond. I feel like this one has to hit Richmond in order to hit y'all and I can tell you right now having to count on that track ain’t good.

    Well that settles it

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