Jump to content

Yeoman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,250

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Yeoman

    Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

    I spent the past 3 winters looking at the MJO and posting it here numerous times. I came to conclusion that it means absolutely nothing for us. We fail when it is in both good and bad phases. Enso means much more. It may be that it matters more in a Nino than a Nina though? 

    When considering the history of the modern climate, we're working with a statistically insignificant dataset to determine if any of these indexes or analogs mean anything outside of being a coincidence. Best bet is to pray to the snow gods and hope for the best.. 

    • Like 1

    January Discobs 2024

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

    Still struggling to get out of the 20s

    I just dug out the downspouts and splashguards so the big melt doesn't back up.  One house behind us has huge icicles on one stretch of gutter.  They must have a clog in that one

    Lights flickering?

    • Haha 1

    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

    AND for those of you in love with having the streets staying covered overnight for days know that I'm not a fan when you get black ice and runoff freezing underneath, especially when you're on a steep incline or slope. I've had enough trips to the bottom of the driveway in three seconds!

    Hopefully people stop loving it so it never happens again.

    • Like 1
    • Confused 1

    Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    There is nothing to analyze in here right now except wild speculation about what things might evolve towards out near mid February.  The pattern is pretty much shut the blinds for a while.  Yes my post was somewhat trolling, but there was a legit point in there that its going to be so warm, at least it looks like now, that even if we did get lucky with a perfect synoptic setup within the larger pattern it wouldn't do us any good.  That is a TRUE shut the blinds pattern.  

    As for the elephant stuff, I'm not trying to start that argument again.  But I don't think its totally true that in the past we had a lot of patterns where the whole CONUS was so torched that there was absolutely no hope of snow no matter what the storm track or amplitude of a wave was.  I saw plenty of "how in the world did we get 5" of snow in THAT" kinda storms when I did my case study of every Baltimore snowstorm.  I think there was a time when we could luck our way into a snowstorm even in a bad pattern once in a while if we got a perfect track wave, but that was when warm periods were warm not scorched earth torches.  

    1998 was the best example of that kind of thing...but there is a matter of degrees...all those perfect track rainstorms in 1998 had some snow mixed in not too far NW of the cities.  My area got 20" that year from like 2-4" of slop in each of those.  And some higher elevations in WV got absolutely buried in every one of those.  Lately its all rain even in some of those places.  We aren't even getting all that close to snow even in a perfect track lately when the pattern is bad.  

    Some people don't agree with me on this.  And that is fine.  It is what it is and our opinions don't matter anyways.  

    For those who have to work, here's a summary: The weather is unpredictable, patterns change, and anything is possible.

    • Like 1

    Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, jayyy said:


    Wouldn’t be historic if we had them every year or even every two years. MECS / SECS are way more common than HECS+. There’s a reason it’s considered historic.

    Also, a week to reload the pattern / cold doesn’t have any impact on whether or not we see a HECS between early feb - march. I get being jaded from the past few years but man, you really do always look for the negatives. No model, especially a long range ensemble or the weeklies, is going to be able to tell you whether or not we see a HECS by winters end. The same exact models could show a HECS potential tomorrow. Wouldn’t worry so much about things that are several weeks out.

    2021-03-29_Captain-Obvious.jpg

    • Like 1

    Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

    Why is it when these things shift warmer 10 days out it never shifts back to snow despite there being plenty of time for models to change?

    It could be a conspiracy by Bill Gates, but more likely they were wrong to begin with.. Day 15 forecasts aren't exactly in their wheelhouse, let alone day 3.  

×
×
  • Create New...