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Yeoman

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Posts posted by Yeoman

  1. 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Funny, we were told yesterday to ignore the JMA and ICON because they aren't in the same league as the other globals. Yet these 2 models show possibly the best outcomes of the bunch (location dependent). With that said, I am taking these and hugging the ever living p!ss out of them for now. Thank you. 

    We're coming up on the 20th anniversary of JMAs last correct 5 day forecast

    • Haha 3
  2. 59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before.

    navgem_mslp_pcpn_eus_23.thumb.png.3bb8e18be85044e04e30a6b70bda8b46.png

    I assume the 120Hr map has it over Bermuda moving NW?

    • Like 1
  3. Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

    I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain.  I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew!

    I'll take the over 500 lights flickering obs within the first hour of precip

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2
  4. 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

    I find that the storm being pushed back makes the forecast even more difficult due to the storm being 5/6  days out while yesterday due to it being more saturday/sunday it was also 5/6 days out. Just something to keep in mind

    confused-no.gif

    • Haha 8
  5. 2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

    It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support.  Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way.  At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark.

    Sage analysis..

    • Haha 1
  6. 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

    Just for the record, I'm not debbing at all.  When I deb, that's when you know it's really bad.  I'm just cursing the Gyre from hell on the GFS because it's ****ing everything up on that model. 

    It's in a strong shear zone and should transition to subtropical before causing too much damage. That said, I've asked FCPS to close just in case. 

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