Yeoman

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Do any Mets have any possible implications for this?

 

Bye bye snow, hello sleet

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, that's a kick in the balls.   BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out

NAM too dry? That would be a first..

55 minutes ago, mappy said:

I expect Monday closed. Maybe Tuesday depending on how long precip goes into Monday. If not closed Tuesday at least a delay

2/2 and 2/3, right? Next week will be canceled before the first sleet pellet falls.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Matt is saying Euro got colder?  I dunno 

Zwyts? where is he?

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Sounds like a hold. Assuming EPS and AI EPS are nominal, I think I'm gonna bump to 6-10"+ tomorrow morning.

Will you be issuing a Traveler's Advisory?

29 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely do not know your issue with me man. You’ve been on my ass when you yourself offer no commentary on our setups and haven’t been on the forum in years. It’s bullshit. As for the CMC point go back to model runs Monday and tell me which one is the closest to our current runs. It is the CMC as by and far it involved the cleanest phase out west and includes the NS lobe which the others didn’t even have at that point. Either way, you gotta chill out man; as it turns out I’ve changed since you last checked the forum and actually know what I’m talking about now. If you’d like to contest that please refer to the top 2 most popular posts in the old thread and tell me the synoptic faults I made as I am more than willing to concede I’m not perfect. 

Hey man - I'm really sorry.. I'm just a little frustrated because my family disowned me after I used my dad's credit card to DoorDash a yardstick from Ace hardware. Now all I'm left with is spending most of my day on the forum trying to make funny posts using sexual innuendo. 

In all seriousness (which is rare from me), congrats on getting into UVA and all the best

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right. 

The storm is 3 days away with an unknown outcome, so it hasn't won anything. Do they teach common sense over at UVA?

CMC also has a known bias to over-phase in the medium range

33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Was doing laundry...what did i miss?

left a sock in the dryer - must be stuck to the wall

44 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Second Synoptic Breakdown 1/24-1/26
 

Nice effort - still too much weenie bias and you’ve turned “the ingredients are on the counter” into “dinner is served” about three days before the oven even preheats. 

1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

Unlike some here, I'm not losing sleep over this stuff. If its going to snow however, I'm going to look in the direction of what 20 years of studying this hobby has taught me to look for.... favorable teleconnections, a good source airmass, and precipitation/moisture streams being present. Having strong ENS support at "range" is a part of that, and right now we have it... so yes, many would argue it's our most favorable window of the season with support. Until its not.

Small model input errors amplify with time. Even looking a few days into the future, chaos wins by default. That's why until you can control the weather, it will continue to be unpredictable. 

4 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

I wish there’d be some accountability for these social media personality Mets that can post knee jerk, baseless claims on twitter or Facebook. At least he called himself out, respect that. Next time…probably don’t call it a complete dud when we’ve seen far worse shit the blinds patterns at range.

Or you could use common sense to know a 1-2 month weather forecast is a joke to begin with.. as long as mindless weenies continue to click on it, who cares?

21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’d be fine with 3” of snow this weekend between the two systems. Just give us something. 
 

 

That's a girthy shaft for DC.. 

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

all kind of evens out between the two light events. Beggars can't be choosers but I'd like more lol

Don't forget to divide by 6

3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Well, let me inject some reality into this space. Social media brain rot dude. It runs as strong in this forum as any forum I've ever been a member of. If you don't  live in people's delusions and false realities, you get frowny face stickers and temper tantrums, just like in preschool. Social media and the people that use it are becoming extremely hard to tolerate both on the internet and in the real world.  True, working class people with good families, homes and jobs don't have time for such a silly and juvenile wastes of time.  Every day its more increasingly obvious who's spending too much time on social media and what it's done to them over the course of the last ten to fifteen years. They live every day in fear of the next and bad mouth, anybody who doesn't partake in their delusions, realities or belief systems. It may be going seemingly unnoticed here, but in the real world, people are becoming increasingly fatigue of this kind of behavior for very good reason.

Wow, that was quite a monologue.. I think you got all the DLC content for “Old Man Yells at Cloud” in one post.

Look, most of us here have jobs, families, mortgages, and unrepaired stuff around the house too. We’re just capable of talking about things on the internet without assuming every disagreement is the fall of Western civilization.

People can use social media without turning into phone-addled cultists, the same way people can enjoy coffee without becoming baristas or watch football without trying to buy a team. If someone having a different opinion online feels like a personal attack, maybe the issue isn’t the forum, maybe it’s Randy.

Anyway, thanks for the reality injection. I’ll check for side effects and get back to scrolling memes like a degenerate.

13 hours ago, eduggs said:

You cannot disprove a theory with feelings. Human quality-of-life has improved tremendously over the past few centuries (medicine [germ theory], electricity, water treatment, agriculture etc...) because (some) humans used science (data, evidence, repeatability) to solve problems instead of emotion, superstition, gut feeling etc... Human perceptions are biased and must be validated with observable data to draw reliable conclusions. Fortunately people like you (non-fact-based) do not steer social and technological policies and developments. You undoubtedly have other ways to contribute to society, but assessing the state of meteorological modeling isn't one of them.

This guy hasn't been playing with a full deck since day one.. ignore and move on

4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Doug Kammerer thinks January will be coldest month relative to normal. What is he seeing? 

https://8-ball-magic.com/index.php#anchor

Damn this sucks.. I was really looking forward to my weekend being ruined by rain.

On 8/27/2025 at 1:22 PM, WxUSAF said:

Speaking of…front at end of next week much stronger so far on 12z runs. Good for continued beautiful BN weather. Not good for immediate drought relief. 

Drought? lol.. you mean draught?

23 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Just a question that I have - any answers ? 

Back in the mid 90s as teen in NW Albemarle , just east of the mountains - I grew up on simple AM/FM radio ... I knew where each FM country station was located on the dial ... This occurred during a strong afternoon thunderstorm with very vivid - almost nonstop lightning , as the storm moved off SE toward Charlottesville I came across a unfamiliar station while scanning through the frequencies, after a few songs the dj came on and said the NWS has issued a tornado watch for all of SE Kansas - 30 % chance of storms capable of producing tornadoes this afternoon... As the lightning faded into the distance that stations FM signal faded... Have always been amazed at that occurrence - knowing that FM signals do not carry that far ,  usually a 100 miles max... unlike AM signals which can travel a thousand miles especially at night...

 Likely Tropospheric ducting, a atmospheric phenomenon that allows VHF and FM radio signals to travel over a thousand miles beyond their normal range.

Oh no.. bad news for the rhododendron. I hope we all survive!

nothing worse than cold and rain

I hope everyone's crops hold up!

On 3/24/2025 at 12:27 PM, Herb@MAWS said:

I’ve noticed past 3 days LWX has not done mid/late-morning updates (or else I simply missed them).  Service cutbacks — or coincidence!?

Nothing worth discussing?

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

You love the AI

You all are fools. AI is what weather modeling has been using since day one, which are algorithms, data, and computing power to perform forecasting that is beyond the capability of human intelligence.

The sooner everyone realizes weather is unpredictable in all but the most stable conditions, the sooner you won't bother wasting your time with these fantasy model runs. Look up the butterfly effect, chaos theory, etc.. and then find a new hobby. Embrace the unexpected..

21 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Fellas… I know we dick around in here way more than we probably should, but let’s keep the squabbling to a minimum.

LOL