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ShawnEastTN

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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN

  1. ShawnEastTN
    GFS running now...
  2. ShawnEastTN
    That famous north and west jog used to always be prevalent in the last 24 to 48 hour window of modeling.
  3. ShawnEastTN
    @Jed33@Holston_River_Rambler@tnweathernut Absolutely, I wouldn't tap out completely yet, we see this frequently year to year where a storm's northern precip shield is vastly under modeled, on one hand if that is the case and there is more dry air in northern areas (stronger and or further south High), could help with evaporational cooling for many in northern fringes. To me a tick south at this stage in the game isn't a bad thing. The FV3 is still generous.
  4. ShawnEastTN
    That is true. I know the feeling I stay colder in WAA situations for much longer and that is missed all the time. The areas around Roane, Rhea and Meigs for some reason seem to get trapped cold and get ice much longer than most in WAA. Always annoyed me they would not notice this happening over and over year after year. The southern plateau I believe creates a sort of shadow for the areas right along the plateau in the valley where WAA rides east of us and takes longer to filter in.
  5. ShawnEastTN
    Was reading their discussion and they are expecting a lot of sleet to cut into snow totals now there. It was a dramatic change by GSP.
  6. ShawnEastTN
    I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs. I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area.
  7. ShawnEastTN
    MRX issues Winter Storm Watches for NE TN, SW VA, and Smokies.
  8. ShawnEastTN
    NAM coming in slightly weaker SLP by a mb, and slightly further south than last run at 45.
  9. ShawnEastTN
    Yep I only look at it once at 24 hours out for sure thing type of events to watch their amount trends, but only around the 24 hour mark for a storm that is an all but guarantee.
  10. ShawnEastTN
    18Z NAM out to 19, High is a mb lower but is also a tad further south by about 100 miles or so from its previous run.
  11. ShawnEastTN
    I know its not a much used/referenced model especially at the end of its run but the RGEM has pretty good feature placement at the end of its run. I love the RGEM in the short range, and while its not without its faults it has had some uncanny verifications at times in previous winters.
  12. ShawnEastTN
    You will get something and likely plenty of it you are in a much more favorable location than us in the great valley. You have much to be optimistic about. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  13. ShawnEastTN
    Winter Storm Watches are now up from New Mexico to Arkansas. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  14. ShawnEastTN
    WSW issued now from New Mexico to Arkansas. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  15. ShawnEastTN
    Yes!!! That was awful, over and over. Think that was 2 years back. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  16. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah the thing that worries me is the High seems to be pretty progressive in its move east. I am way more comfortable with the high sitting around the southern end of Lake Michigan. Or at least north or NW of us.
  17. ShawnEastTN
    12Z NAM of course at 84, but still not a bad look for feature placement.
  18. ShawnEastTN
    Closest traffic camera I could find to the band that appears to be still on going and fluctuating on radar.
  19. ShawnEastTN
    Had to travel this morning to our Sevierville office and saw some very light fine flaked snow showers this morning in Sevierville. Some cars I saw parked over night had snow on them.
  20. ShawnEastTN
    Awesome update AMZ! Jealous, but excited to see anyone in the forum especially this early in the game to be getting accumulation! Hopefully its a taste of whats really to come in winter.
  21. ShawnEastTN
    I'd also almost argue we would generally want AN or at least normal September and October to get a possible BN November, since we don't tend to keep cold air around very long in the forum especially late fall to early winter.
  22. ShawnEastTN
    Nice summer time OBS... Mt. LeConte weather station recorded an overnight low last night of 36 and high of only 53 yesterday!
  23. ShawnEastTN
    One of my favorite busts in a winter forecast in recent memory was February of 2015, its actually interesting to go back and look at the forecast thread and then the obs thread here on the forum for the event because it was such a serious bust for many. Initially the morning of the storm WWAs were issued for most of the great valley for 2-4". Then the event started in the late afternoon for southern areas around chatt, and was way over performing, MRX bumped to WSW for 3-6", then kept updating their snowfall graphic upward. Couple of those clips from the old thread below, by the time all was said and done many got between 7-12".
  24. ShawnEastTN
    93 has seared my brain forever. Almost everything you mention even for the valley is spot on, 2 days before watching WRCB in Chattanooga Paul Barys coming right out and saying very frankly we are in for a potential blizzard and used the word blizzard. I remember people saying he was crazy all the way up till the storm, then couldn't believe he was right. I do remember it raining at my house until about midnight that night, then giant wet flakes and the wind was literally howling outside. I remember waking up at about 4AM because the wind literally was loud, peaked out the door only for the wind to blow a crazy amount of snow in so I slammed it shut, then went to the window and could barely see the street light just outside the house by about 100 feet, it was snowing so hard it was blurred that much. Then to my complete shock I witnessed then and still the only time in the eastern US, thundersnow. Everything ourside went purple, I say everything but really it was just snowing so hard you could only see just this bright purple flash then the thunder which was muffled but definitely thunder after it was pretty incredible. Then of course having no power for a week afterward, and the morning after all you could smell was pine from all the fallen trees. So much damage, it was incredible. My yard averaged 20" of snow with drifts up to 5', I was 13 and 5' snow drifts were up to my armpits. Will never forget that storm!
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