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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    While its solution verbatim kinda screws some of this area, add the HRRR to the list of runs (all ARW, fwiw) which are much more widespread and further south with convection tomorrow than the NMMB runs.
  2. high risk
    you're most welcome. Tropical Tidbits has nice displays - it's listed in the mesoscale section as WRF-ARW2. Pivotal Weather has it as HRW WRF-NSSL.
  3. high risk
    The ARW2 in particular is a very good model. It's effectively the same configuration as the very popular and quite skillful NSSL-WRF.
  4. high risk
    absolutely correct that the NAM nest is not being very aggressive for tomorrow, but at the other end of the spectrum, the two ARW Hi-Res Windows have a very robust event for PA/NY and MD/DE (and maybe WV and northern VA too). Both bring convection out of the midwest early Thursday and redevelop it east of the mountains, with some impressive radar signatures. Not saying this will be the outcome, but it could explain some of the more "excited" forecasts.
  5. high risk
    I like the faster timing of the 18z NAM nest. What I really like is the combination of shear and lapse rates - combinations like these are rare here, and I suspect they're driving the hits with the analogs.
  6. high risk
    I'm not surprised. The lapse rates look quite healthy for the east coast, and the shear profiles (as currently modeled) would support splitting supercells.
  7. high risk
    I'm in for Thursday, especially after seeing the NAM nest forecast soundings and simulated reflectivity, although I like areas north of our region even better.
  8. high risk
    00z NAM nest and HRRR show a pretty active Sunday late afternoon/early evening in our area with a good amount of storms, especially for those north of Rt 50 Deep layer shear isn't great, but instability is good, and there is some low-level shear. edit: looks like a possible line on the front later Monday when better deep layer shear is in place
  9. high risk
    the structure was screwy, but I don't think it was a supercell, as the 00z IAD raob wind profile is pretty sad. Was a pretty storm, though, and I got some small hail in southern Howard County.
  10. high risk
    Reviewing the morning CAMs, several of them show storms developing in northwest VA or eastern WV and then moving southeast towards the RIC area. Not a whole lot of signal for the folks in central MD. I agree with SPC, though, that there is sufficient deep layer shear to support some SVR in any storms that organize.
  11. high risk
    It's enough of a threat that SPC has outlooked us for MRGL. The hi-res guidance shows a few storms developing tomorrow afternoon and moving southeast, mainly affecting the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Instability is modest at best, but there is decent deep-layer shear and some downdraft cape to promote some wind gust potential.
  12. high risk
    I don't have any feel for the HRDPS, but all of the hi-res guidance I've seen so far this morning points to storms here tomorrow mid-late afternoon. Some of the guidance breaks out some initial waves of storms that cut down on the instability and the potential for a more organized and intense late-day line; the NAM3 puts all of its eggs into a single basket with one strong line. Whether there is a SVR threat remains to be be seen, but "good" storms seem fairly likely at this point.
  13. high risk
    Tonight's NAM3 still shows a strongly-forced squall line along the front later Friday. Instability and deep-layer shear are modest, but it's probably sufficient as currently progged to warrant a MRGL risk when the new Day 2 SPC outlook is issued in a few hours. I still think that we could eventually end up as a SLGT, depending on how much heating occurs.
  14. high risk
    Friday has at least some "sleeper potential" for severe, especially for those along and east of the I-95 corridor. The NAM3 allows for some moisture advection and some heating ahead of the front and send a nice line through the area during the evening rush. The environment has only modest instability and modest shear, so severe would be isolated, but it would be a fun event. The GFS has a lot more cloud cover which limits heating ahead of the front and would be a much more 'meh' event.
  15. high risk
    yeah, surprised we haven't even seen an MD down there yet.
  16. high risk
    Ya know, I've been saying that we need to make round 1 wimpy to increase our chances with round 2, but maybe there is some tornado potential in our area with round 1? The shear profiles won't be as good as they will be later in the day, but they'll be decent, and we'll actually have better low-level instability.
  17. high risk
    I still think that the key is how widespread the wave of early-mid afternoon showers (storms?) is. HRRR is pretty aggressive with it, and the model takes us from that 73-75 range back to the upper 60s later in the day when the better forcing and best wind profiles arrive. If we can avoid widespread cooling with round 1, I think we're in much better shape for round 2.
  18. high risk
    not to split hairs, but at least the 13z outlook gets the entire region into 2% tornado probabilities. The initial outlook with <2% made no sense. I was bullish on my tornado probs last night, but with some indication now that there will be an early afternoon wave of showers, this may hurt our better instability later in the day and lead to slightly elevated storms with less tornado potential (but certainly heavy rain potential).
  19. high risk
    NAM nest seems like an outlier with only a mid-evening show. 00Z HRRR and current and earlier hi-res windows all support a late afternoon round 1 and then an evening round 2. There is still some healthy disagreement on whether the low-level shear is sufficiently "good" by late afternoon or if the better shear sets up after dark, but I would certainly expect a 5% tornado outlook in the early morning Day 1.
  20. high risk
    I'll agree with the props to LWX for the synopsis. Looking at the early components of the 00z suite, the HRRR wants to initiate some convection during the late afternoon in the area that would have slightly better low-level instability to work with than later storms - this might be an earlier show, with lesser severe potential later at night. The NAM nest avoids the earlier convection and has the show all being later at night, with an ominous radar showing cells and line segments. That said, the cape is very tall and skinny, which reduces the severe potential at least a little, but the low-level shear is still very impressive.
  21. high risk
    I was looking at it when you posted. Sunday night could be very, very interesting around here. As I noted earlier, the NAM keeps temps well up in the 60s Sunday night, so the usual big drop in overnight instability here won't be an issue. While the overall wind profiles have some veer-back-veer in them (which can limit the ability of cells to stay discrete), and the cape is a bit "tall and skinny", the low-level shear looks truly outstanding, and the NAM NEST certainly suggests some cells out ahead of the main line. Tomorrow's day 2 for Sunday/Sunday night will almost certainly extend slight risk into our area, and it could end up as an enhanced risk.
  22. high risk
    The overnight threat Sunday could materialize better than overnight threats usually do here if the NAM is correct. It shows strong southerly winds keeping temperatures here in the upper 60s through the night.
  23. high risk
    It does, but look at the 2m dewpoint field. It has dew points rocketing up into the 62-64 range as the precip approaches which allows it to blow up the convection. Actual dew points have been falling this afternoon, more in line with what the HRRR is showing.
  24. high risk
    The key for today appears to be the low-level dew points. NAM3 moistens us all afternoon, we end up with low/mid 60s dew points by late afternoon and a pretty unstable atmosphere. HRRR mixes and advects some low dew point air into our region during the afternoon, and we end up in the low 50s by late afternoon.
  25. high risk
    yeah, I could have clarified, although the NAM3 only goes to f60...... But while Friday does have some potential, I am talking about today.
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