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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    hard to argue with the watch with those impressive cells in central PA. supercell composite values are pretty decent. 18z NAM nest brings the cells into far northern MD before dying, while HRRR is completely unimpressed. I still think that they're going to have a tough time making it to the Mason-Dixon line due to diminishing instability, but I certainly won't discount the possibility.
  2. high risk
    This post aged fairly well.
  3. high risk
    Montgomery/Howard cell starting to bow.
  4. high risk
    I'm not closing the door on round 2; it just seems less likely unless you're further north. The obs over the next few hours will tell the story.
  5. high risk
    northern and northeastern MD are cooler than locations further south, so this makes sense.
  6. high risk
    With this line being being more widespread than earlier thought, I think it's going to be more effective at wiping out instability over a larger area. Also, the front isn't getting here until well after dark. I had said earlier that I thought that the northern-most counties could be in the game around sunset (mainly based on the NAM nest), and maybe that's still possible, but the latest HRRR runs are not excited about the I-95 corridor until you get up into NJ.
  7. high risk
    For most of us, I think this will be the show. And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability. I'd expect further intensification.
  8. high risk
    sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA. less to the east, but that will rapidly increase supercell composite around 4 or so lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream
  9. high risk
    I'd argue that our best chances are ahead of the front, with redevelopment on the flanks of whatever is left of the ongoing OH/WV storms as they move east. That front is going to arrive too far past peak heating for DC metro, but it could be ok for your area up north (as per the 12z NAM nest). Our best chances further south are in the mid to late afternoon timeframe - I'm not as bullish as I was yesterday, but the CAMs overall are not doing well with ongoing upstream convection. I'm prepared to bust badly with my optimism.
  10. high risk
    I'm still not sure about coverage, but I do think there will be SVR in the DC-Baltimore corridor later today.
  11. high risk
    THIS. If you look at what it has at 13z compared to radar, it's failing on the OH storms. The earlier runs had a much better handle on that activity and look much better for us.
  12. high risk
    The CAM solutions are a bit mixed, mostly based on how they evolve the ongoing OH storms. The "good" CAM solutions have storms forming on the outflow of that system (or least some sort of remnant boundary) and rolling through here during the 3-5pm timeframe or so. Mappy correctly notes that getting some good heating would help a ton, and most guidance makes that happen. The shear definitely supports some supercells in addition to line segments, although I think it's more of a hail/wind day than a tornado day.
  13. high risk
    12z Hi-Res Window runs are now in, and the NAM nest's uninspired forecasts for our area tomorrow are looking like an outlier.
  14. high risk
    While its solution verbatim kinda screws some of this area, add the HRRR to the list of runs (all ARW, fwiw) which are much more widespread and further south with convection tomorrow than the NMMB runs.
  15. high risk
    you're most welcome. Tropical Tidbits has nice displays - it's listed in the mesoscale section as WRF-ARW2. Pivotal Weather has it as HRW WRF-NSSL.
  16. high risk
    The ARW2 in particular is a very good model. It's effectively the same configuration as the very popular and quite skillful NSSL-WRF.
  17. high risk
    absolutely correct that the NAM nest is not being very aggressive for tomorrow, but at the other end of the spectrum, the two ARW Hi-Res Windows have a very robust event for PA/NY and MD/DE (and maybe WV and northern VA too). Both bring convection out of the midwest early Thursday and redevelop it east of the mountains, with some impressive radar signatures. Not saying this will be the outcome, but it could explain some of the more "excited" forecasts.
  18. high risk
    I like the faster timing of the 18z NAM nest. What I really like is the combination of shear and lapse rates - combinations like these are rare here, and I suspect they're driving the hits with the analogs.
  19. high risk
    I'm not surprised. The lapse rates look quite healthy for the east coast, and the shear profiles (as currently modeled) would support splitting supercells.
  20. high risk
    I'm in for Thursday, especially after seeing the NAM nest forecast soundings and simulated reflectivity, although I like areas north of our region even better.
  21. high risk
    00z NAM nest and HRRR show a pretty active Sunday late afternoon/early evening in our area with a good amount of storms, especially for those north of Rt 50 Deep layer shear isn't great, but instability is good, and there is some low-level shear. edit: looks like a possible line on the front later Monday when better deep layer shear is in place
  22. high risk
    the structure was screwy, but I don't think it was a supercell, as the 00z IAD raob wind profile is pretty sad. Was a pretty storm, though, and I got some small hail in southern Howard County.
  23. high risk
    Reviewing the morning CAMs, several of them show storms developing in northwest VA or eastern WV and then moving southeast towards the RIC area. Not a whole lot of signal for the folks in central MD. I agree with SPC, though, that there is sufficient deep layer shear to support some SVR in any storms that organize.
  24. high risk
    It's enough of a threat that SPC has outlooked us for MRGL. The hi-res guidance shows a few storms developing tomorrow afternoon and moving southeast, mainly affecting the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Instability is modest at best, but there is decent deep-layer shear and some downdraft cape to promote some wind gust potential.
  25. high risk
    I don't have any feel for the HRDPS, but all of the hi-res guidance I've seen so far this morning points to storms here tomorrow mid-late afternoon. Some of the guidance breaks out some initial waves of storms that cut down on the instability and the potential for a more organized and intense late-day line; the NAM3 puts all of its eggs into a single basket with one strong line. Whether there is a SVR threat remains to be be seen, but "good" storms seem fairly likely at this point.
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