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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    That's a super nice picture! But I assume you're looking north, and we're seeing the light out AHEAD of the storm on the right side. In the referenced picture, I have to assume that the person is supposedly looking west as the storm arrives, and the light we're seeing is around the southwest flank of the cell. I just don't see how it could have possibly been light in that direction with no break in the line.
  2. high risk
    that's the one. I'm completely skeptical, as the rotation yesterday was embedded in a line, and I don't see how there would have been brightness on either side. That looks like a photoshopped HP supercell from the plains, taken at sunset.
  3. high risk
    The fake photos are out in full force today. Justin Berk's FB page has a shot that is supposed to be of the storm approaching Columbia yesterday. It's clearly a plains HP supercell at sunset photoshopped in.
  4. high risk
    Yeah, I was watching the radar late, and they almost made it! But the timing of the front was a few hours off for us.
  5. high risk
    @kmlwx We were not in lockstep with today's storms. Please get your act together for the next Step 2 event.
  6. high risk
    hard to argue with the watch with those impressive cells in central PA. supercell composite values are pretty decent. 18z NAM nest brings the cells into far northern MD before dying, while HRRR is completely unimpressed. I still think that they're going to have a tough time making it to the Mason-Dixon line due to diminishing instability, but I certainly won't discount the possibility.
  7. high risk
    This post aged fairly well.
  8. high risk
    Montgomery/Howard cell starting to bow.
  9. high risk
    I'm not closing the door on round 2; it just seems less likely unless you're further north. The obs over the next few hours will tell the story.
  10. high risk
    northern and northeastern MD are cooler than locations further south, so this makes sense.
  11. high risk
    With this line being being more widespread than earlier thought, I think it's going to be more effective at wiping out instability over a larger area. Also, the front isn't getting here until well after dark. I had said earlier that I thought that the northern-most counties could be in the game around sunset (mainly based on the NAM nest), and maybe that's still possible, but the latest HRRR runs are not excited about the I-95 corridor until you get up into NJ.
  12. high risk
    For most of us, I think this will be the show. And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability. I'd expect further intensification.
  13. high risk
    sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA. less to the east, but that will rapidly increase supercell composite around 4 or so lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream
  14. high risk
    I'd argue that our best chances are ahead of the front, with redevelopment on the flanks of whatever is left of the ongoing OH/WV storms as they move east. That front is going to arrive too far past peak heating for DC metro, but it could be ok for your area up north (as per the 12z NAM nest). Our best chances further south are in the mid to late afternoon timeframe - I'm not as bullish as I was yesterday, but the CAMs overall are not doing well with ongoing upstream convection. I'm prepared to bust badly with my optimism.
  15. high risk
    I'm still not sure about coverage, but I do think there will be SVR in the DC-Baltimore corridor later today.
  16. high risk
    THIS. If you look at what it has at 13z compared to radar, it's failing on the OH storms. The earlier runs had a much better handle on that activity and look much better for us.
  17. high risk
    The CAM solutions are a bit mixed, mostly based on how they evolve the ongoing OH storms. The "good" CAM solutions have storms forming on the outflow of that system (or least some sort of remnant boundary) and rolling through here during the 3-5pm timeframe or so. Mappy correctly notes that getting some good heating would help a ton, and most guidance makes that happen. The shear definitely supports some supercells in addition to line segments, although I think it's more of a hail/wind day than a tornado day.
  18. high risk
    12z Hi-Res Window runs are now in, and the NAM nest's uninspired forecasts for our area tomorrow are looking like an outlier.
  19. high risk
    While its solution verbatim kinda screws some of this area, add the HRRR to the list of runs (all ARW, fwiw) which are much more widespread and further south with convection tomorrow than the NMMB runs.
  20. high risk
    you're most welcome. Tropical Tidbits has nice displays - it's listed in the mesoscale section as WRF-ARW2. Pivotal Weather has it as HRW WRF-NSSL.
  21. high risk
    The ARW2 in particular is a very good model. It's effectively the same configuration as the very popular and quite skillful NSSL-WRF.
  22. high risk
    absolutely correct that the NAM nest is not being very aggressive for tomorrow, but at the other end of the spectrum, the two ARW Hi-Res Windows have a very robust event for PA/NY and MD/DE (and maybe WV and northern VA too). Both bring convection out of the midwest early Thursday and redevelop it east of the mountains, with some impressive radar signatures. Not saying this will be the outcome, but it could explain some of the more "excited" forecasts.
  23. high risk
    I like the faster timing of the 18z NAM nest. What I really like is the combination of shear and lapse rates - combinations like these are rare here, and I suspect they're driving the hits with the analogs.
  24. high risk
    I'm not surprised. The lapse rates look quite healthy for the east coast, and the shear profiles (as currently modeled) would support splitting supercells.
  25. high risk
    I'm in for Thursday, especially after seeing the NAM nest forecast soundings and simulated reflectivity, although I like areas north of our region even better.
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