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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    roads are ok here in southern Howard County, but there is a pretty glaze on the trees.
  2. high risk
    This is a legit concern. Most of the 00z hi-res guidance increases the lull time.
  3. high risk
    This is a good catch, but the idea of that initial band having some sleet in it is an outlier solution, and the associated forecast soundings have a warm layer that is just barely above freezing. Something to watch for in the evening runs, though.
  4. high risk
    because the snow falling tomorrow morning will fall at temperatures in the 20s which always causes problems
  5. high risk
    Fantastic agreement among the hi-res models for the initial band of snow at some point during the 7-10am or so time frame (earlier for those further west) followed by a break for a few hours before the main batch of precip arrives with snow changing to sleet to (maybe a period of freezing rain) to rain through the mid/late afternoon hours (with the temps taking extra time to crack the freezing mark north of I-70). I still believe that the morning snow band is going to cause a lot of road problems with the temps in the 20s.
  6. high risk
    It's worth noting that there is really good agreement that there will be a band of snow pushing across the area during the morning tomorrow. It's narrow, and it won't last long (and it's not clear how far south it will extend), and accumulations won't be great. BUT, it will fall with temps in the mid 20s, so it will likely cause some travel troubles. It's also clear that we then get a break before the primary precip band arrives from the west. How much we can warm before it arrives will of course determine the impacts from that.
  7. high risk
    No doubts at all about the shear. NAM nest showed a strongly forced line of convection moving through very early Sunday. As Yoda notes, instability is pretty meager, but temps will be rising through the 60s Saturday night, so being able to mix down some momentum to the sfc isn't a total fantasy.
  8. high risk
    Getting stickage now in southern Howard County. Impressive rates.
  9. high risk
    Later tonight???? This event is over by 8pm at the latest.
  10. high risk
    Cwg calling for 65 5 days from now I think it's legit and may actually end up too low. Most guidance shows 850 temps approaching +15 here. Saturday and Saturday night are likely toasty, and Sunday could be too if the GFS solution is too fast.
  11. high risk
    Ah, so it's a Kuchera-derived product. And I missed that you were referring to areas well west of DC Metro. Thanks!
  12. high risk
    I'll bite. Where are you getting that the NAM ratios are 11-12:1???
  13. high risk
    I like what I've seen from the Kuchera plots. I'll admit that it drives me nuts when it's going to be an all sleet or a white rain event, and people post the 10:1 maps screaming "The GFS/NAM/whatever is predicting 14" here. LOL." The models are NOT doing that. Any sleet or snow gets tallied together into a liquid amount, and then the web sites slap on a generic ratio that makes a product with already severe limitations 5x worse.
  14. high risk
    I'd respectfully argue that it's way better than 10:1 maps in any sort of sleet or mixed events or in a daytime event with lousy rates or super warm ground. It fails in the events with it knows that that the temps are marginal and cuts amounts that can stick, but in the real world the rates overcome the marginal temps.
  15. high risk
    Nope. Still going strong....
  16. high risk
    This isn't true. It absolutely still is an operational system.
  17. high risk
    NAM actually takes most of the area up to 40 tomorrow ahead of the precip (low to mid 40s in southern MD) but has strong cooling as the precip arrives to bring most areas down into the lower 30s.
  18. high risk
    It's always worth remembering in these marginal events that the 10:1 maps do NOT represent what the model thinks will be on the ground. There is a total snowfall liquid equivalent parameter that reflects how much liquid is falling as snow out of the model. It makes no attempt to answer what the SLR will be or whether it will stick; those maps are TT throwing a 10:1 ratio on that liquid total. The accumulated snow depth plots DO reflect what the model thinks will actually accumulate on the ground.
  19. high risk
    THIS. We've had many instances over the years with temperature well below freezing leading up to an event, and even a small amount of snow turns the roads into a disaster. Tonight's event will feature temps well above freezing slowly falling to maybe around freezing. Any place that gets under a significant band could certainly see some slick spots, but it's hard to imagine a scenario with widespread travel problems (until you get further north and northwest from the 95 corridor).
  20. high risk
    Guidance had been pretty consistent on weakening this snow band and confining the remnants to northern MD, but the 00z NAM and the Hi-Res Windows now bring a dusting all the way south to Montgomery/Howard Counties (and some even into northern part of DC/PG County). Hoping to wake up to a coating here in southern Howard.
  21. high risk
    CAPE is good, and shear is marginal, but the combo overall is ok-ish, so I understand the slight risk. But it sure would be nice to see some better signals in the hi-res guidance. Maybe they're missing the potential impact of the MCV moving east, but they're certainly overall uninspiring (except for the NSSL-WRF).
  22. high risk
    terrific question. While most of the CAMs had some cells erupting in IL before 00z, there was some consensus that the biggest contributor to an MCS approaching the Appalachians tomorrow morning would be storms that fired in central IL this evening. And that development (while not SVR so far) appears to be underway, so it may still be on track. That said, that morning MCS tomorrow could end up further south than expected, although I'd still be concerned about the cloud shield further north.
  23. high risk
    I'm definitely not ready to be in for this. I do understand the SPC optimism based on the shear and the arrival of a well-timed vort. But I don't like that multiple CAMs show an MCS coming out of OH later tonight and then falling apart as it approaches around midday tomorrow. To be fair, the models that have that scenario do develop another round of convection later in the day, and it could certainly be severe, but we usually run into instability problems in those events due to the cloud shield or, in the worst case scenario, sfc outflow. I still think we can score on either 1) the original midday/early afternoon line or 2) new development later in the day , but I need to see the later CAM solutions look more favorable.
  24. high risk
    not quite severe here in College Park but pretty damn close
  25. high risk
    It's the likelihood of rainfall exceeding FFG, and FFG over part of our ahead is 1-2" in a 3h period, so I would agree that there is a 20-50% (as defines the MDT risk) of that happening within 25 miles of a point in the MDT zone.
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