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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    we CAN see the in-between hours for the GFS on the mag.ncep.noaa.gov site which has the full hourly output. You'll see that the changeover is well before 00z, but as has been noted, the GFS is well-known for being way too fast in breaking down inversions and warming the low levels
  2. high risk
    That's extremely apparent if one looks at the NAM QPF for southern MD.
  3. high risk
    it was similar with the 18z cycle. very unimpressive thump, with heavier precip coming in after the switch to sleet.
  4. high risk
    yes, although it usually does really well in these snow --> sleet transitions. I think that what is happening is that the precip total on the NAM3 across the area really isn't impressive until after a warm layer sneaks in (just after 17z). It's probably cranking out a reasonable SLR when "pure" snow is falling; it just doesn't have enough precip to work with. Not saying that this is correct - just pointing out why that map looks meager.
  5. high risk
    I certainly won't defend the SREF, but it's not a hi-res ensemble (members are 16 km). The HREF is an excellent way to view existing hi-res guidance in terms of means and probabilities, although more winter products are needed. Moving towards an hourly-updated hi-res ensemble around 2021 or so.
  6. high risk
    There won't be any further upgrades to the NAM, although it's not clear when it can be turned off. As long as the GFS struggles in cold air damming events and with instability in general, the NAMs will stay. The NAM3 sometimes runs a bit cold in damming events and can be too wet, but it's far superior to the GFS in overall handling of this type of event. We saw that very clearly with the November storm.
  7. high risk
    Feel like we have to hash this out every time, but the NCEP models generate a snow water equivalent that is generated from all frozen hydrometeors (snow + sleet). TT then applies a 10:1 ratio to that, which does not work if you have a good amount of sleet. But TT also displays total positive snow depth change which is what the model actually thinks is accumulating on the ground. It sometimes runs a bit low, but it's WAY, WAY more representative of the model is doing in this mix (or wet snow) events.
  8. high risk
    for a day or two, until it's confirmed that the implementation "worked", but it won't be available to the public
  9. high risk
    NAM wants to bring a quick shot of mess through the area Sunday afternoon. NAM nest is not on board.
  10. high risk
    Yes, that is the current target.
  11. high risk
    If he did, he is wrong.
  12. high risk
    see Eskimo Joe's latest post. It is indeed fine in the southeast part of the county, but it's a massive mess in the other half. Lots of stuff on the school system FB page of cars and busses having to navigate around downed trees and overall icy conditions.
  13. high risk
    the county school system made an awful call to only have 2 hour delay today. It's fine here in the southeast part of the county, but it's a massive mess in the northwest half. But they got skewered in the press for closing yesterday and swung the pendulum too far back the other way today
  14. high risk
    If the GFS is right about the front returning north on Thursday, we have a legit shot to hit 70.
  15. high risk
    can't disagree. the hi-res models just aren't meant for short-range details of winter snow bands; they're meant for deep convection. the radar reflectivity assimilation doesn't work properly with low dbz stuff.
  16. high risk
    very meh right now but should be improving shortly.
  17. high risk
    HRRR suggests a midday break and then perhaps another very light round of snow this afternoon
  18. high risk
    If I'm reading the AFD correctly, LWX is going to issue a winter weather advisory for DC/Baltimore metro.
  19. high risk
    yes, but of the models that generate snow, most have it starting during the morning commute. That's the point.
  20. high risk
    this is going to make for another super challenging decision for schools, as if it does snow, it will fall during the morning rush. We're obviously talking about small amounts, but even a dusting would cause road issues with these temps.
  21. high risk
    can you please be more specific when identifying the 'WRF'? Since you're referring to TT, I assume you're talking about one of the three hires windows, labeled as WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, and WRF-NMM (which should be labeled NMMB, but that's another issue).
  22. high risk
    pretty much all guidance has the temperatures crash behind that arctic front
  23. high risk
    definitely some great signals on the hi-res guidance. The Hi-Res Windows (particularly the NMMB and ARW2) look awesome
  24. high risk
    they're basing that off of a single HRRR run, and while the simulated reflectivity field does look better, it's still showing 36-38 degrees during their "time of excitement".
  25. high risk
    followed by a rapid and dramatic temperature drop. would be crazy if the bigger commute issues end up occurring Wednesday afternoon instead of today.
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