high risk

Yeah, that's an interesting ongoing event for sure. I was wondering if that might help or screw things up later, but the 14z HRRR has a modest handle on the ongoing activity and still cranks up the later show.

Yeah, those soundings really support strong downdraft potential IF storms can organize, consistent with the SPC outlook.

The CAMs tend to not produce a lot of storms here in downsloping.... they're often underdone but on the general right track. The 12z NAM nest solution is kinda scary verbatim for the DC-Baltimore corridor. If a line can really get organized, the potential for widespread damaging winds is very real. But it's a definite "IF".

Very active period coming up for the mid-Atlantic and northeast, as noted in the previous posts. The soundings for today certainly do look great (per CAPE's post), but as noted by SPC, storm coverage is a question. All of that westerly low-level flow and low-level dry air due to the downsloping makes for amazing DCAPE but also makes storm maintenance tougher. A few recent HRRR runs actually have a convective MIN in the DC-Baltimore corridor, for what that's worth. Tomorrow looks like poor timing for us. I wouldn't rule out Thursday, as even though the bigger show will be well to our north, there is really good flow and hard-to-time shortwaves. Was a bit surprised to see a Saturday outlook - the upper trough looks sweet, but I've been under the impression that clouds and rain from the remnants of Laura will keep our instability low. Fun tracking for sure!

SPC Day 2 now has has the DC-Baltimore corridor included within an ENH.

I still like a number of things about tomorrow, although downsloping always complicates an event like this. The nice shortwave and moderate downdraft cape certainly suggest a wind threat for any storms that do make it into our area. Wednesday has even better wind fields, but right now, the shortwaves don't time well for us - that could change......

I'm definitely on board with the SPC day 4 outlook. Even though the best dynamics will be northeast of here, it looks like we'll have good lapse rates with moderate instability, some downdraft cape, decent flow aloft, and height falls with a well-timed short wave. Definitely a wind damage threat for DC metro and points north and northeast if the current models solutions hold.

That storm here in southern Howard was far more impressive than I was expecting. No thunder, but the rain was torrential, and winds gusted over 35 kt for sure.

most guidance has a decent (albeit slightly broken) line moving through during the dinner hour, but yeah, soundings are not very impressive. That said, if the storms really do organize and form a cold pool, a few decent gusts are not out of the question (consistent with the SPC MRGL).

I can report that over here in Howard County, we don't have as high of reflectivity values as over Montgomery, and it's still absolutely pouring

while we're clearly not going to get the Sunday soaking that some of the guidance had been advertising, I think it's going a bit far to suggest a sunny afternoon. Most of the forecast soundings and simulated satellite products I've seen have clouds (and perhaps some light rain or drizzle) persisting well into the afternoon. But I certainly hope I'm being too pessimistic.....

https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand. You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation). The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth.

Probably not Thursday and Friday. Still potential for huge soakers, but the weaker steering currents argue against widespread coverage. The weekend could be a different story, with a very favorable upper pattern and tropical moisture still in place.

Definitely. The ground is already very wet in parts of the area, there could be more storms later tonight, storm chances are good tomorrow and maybe Friday, and we then have to deal with the weekend.

I would say that it does, although I would not be surprised is there is some very weak rotation on the cells tonight, as there is some very modest curvature in the hodographs tonight.

overnight convection? the CAMs say maybe; the radar is really lighting up to our southwest

the PWs are really impressive, and earlier HRRR runs looked wet and suggested backbuilding, but that model has really backed off now.

certainly some chance of SVR this evening and later tomorrow, but I'm really starting to like the look for late Monday. NAM nest has an impressive connective signature in an environment with some shear. My biggest concern, though, is that the model looks slow with Isaias, so we could have a much wetter environment Monday than progged (and more of a flash flood thread than a SVR threat)

I'm not writing it off, but I'm not very excited right now. Far more interested in a potential PRE on Monday.

I have to admit that I wasn't paying close attention to tomorrow, but the HRRR and the Hi-Res Windows all some some impressive cells across northern VA later Saturday. Wind profiles have some definite directional shear, although there is probably too much weakness in the speeds in the lower levels to have a robust TOR threat. Slight risk seems completely justified to me.

actually, the deep layer shear needed for an organized severe threat is overall lacking today, which explains the lack of a slight risk. that said, I do think we'll see a few isolated severe warnings later today.

very pleasantly surprised to get a heavy shower. All of the guidance I had seen today had this activity dying out well before reaching the I-95 corridor.

I'm not ready to buy in to heavier rain making it back to the I-95 corridor, but I'm definitely not ruling it out. The NAM nest is certainly most aggressive, but there is some support from other CAMs for the precip bands extending further west, although even those solutions make it clear that the NAM nest is too fast. It's also worth noting that the GFS tends to not generate sufficient precip on the west side of east coast storms, although there is more evidence for that with winter storms than with tropical hybrids.

Watching the 5th good cell today miss me by a couple of miles. Still stuck at a trace.

Yeah, this is comedy watching the whiffs here today. HRRR still says I get soaked in a few hours. Debating whether to water the garden.....