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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Another loss for the meh-teorologists.
  2. jbenedet
    I like today’s severe threat for eastern half. Clouds are breaking up. All meso guidance still clearly on board. The show is in the afternoon.
  3. jbenedet
    We haven’t seen a legit CP cold front in quite some time, going back at least a month. I mean, I can’t rule out one, but the point stands. CP air masses don’t typically arrive in the subtropics in climatological summer. That’s basically my point. We’re seeing more subtropics than mid latitude climo lately. A bit of a tangent, but even in winter we had cold fronts that brought us *down* from AN to normal to slightly AN for a chunk of the season. Faux cold. Separate factors then or partially related? Either way, appears a long term “persistence“ phenomenon in 2020...
  4. jbenedet
    Really seeming like the northeast is the mid Atlantic/southeast in this pattern. Fay didn’t recurve along a surface cold front as one would normally expect. Tropical airmass before and after she passes. Cape cod may be our OBX this year, if you will. Heads up for big TC threats if general pattern persists into August.
  5. jbenedet
    “Somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 to 50 mph gusts.” Given wind force as an exponential function of velocity, that’s worse than saying the temperature will be in the neighborhood of 30 to 50F.
  6. jbenedet
    I’ll get a for this, but this already looking like a marginal TS on vis with LLC east of OBX. The naked swirl is a distraction from what looks increasingly apparent at this point.
  7. jbenedet
    Usually this latitude is where tropical cyclones begin transitioning, non-tropical...BUT 84F SST under that deep convection...Pretty incredible given climo. Certainly conducive to development of a non-sub tropical TC, with hospitable upper level environment.
  8. jbenedet
    Yea and that’s what the 12z NAM indicated . Granted it’s the nam, but that’s all of the 12z suite we have at the moment. Latest vis does seem to show the convection-less swirl being abandoned for the deep convection east of OBX.
  9. jbenedet
    I’ll take the other side of this. The CoC is further northeast, and there has been a recent blow up of convection right in that location. I think much better shot this surprises to the upside—intensity wise—than the opposite..Next 6-10 hrs will be quite telling, as it remains over the Gulf Stream. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  10. jbenedet
    Northeast quad is where that risk is typically highest, *if* this maintains significant tropical characteristics into the northern Mid Atlantic. With that, I think Long Island, Eastern CT, RI and SE MA, might be more interesting.
  11. jbenedet
    I dunno...This passes as miserable for July weekend weather at FMH. Most obs of fog/mist/overcast. https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KFMH.html I went to Hampton beach NH yesterday, to avoid the “stuck in dank” in Maine. It took until 12:30 pm to break into partly cloudy, and then clouds came back in by 4. Really tough pattern for the beaches lately...Used to see this regularly when I lived on LI. And it’s why I never want a beach house in the Northeast as a primary residence...marine boundary layer is a bit$h.
  12. jbenedet
    I was going to head there today but forecast seems to have only steadily worsened the past 48 hrs right at the coast, especially in Maine.. Thinking will have a much better shot at a nice break further south—Rye NH on south... Damn meso-lows...
  13. jbenedet
    For Rain. Sell today buy tomorrow.
  14. jbenedet
    I’m doing a rain dance today. This line looks pathetic. Looks like being East might finally work in my favor though....
  15. jbenedet
    Not sure if you have sinus/snoring problems. But if that’s the culprit, train yourself to breathe through your nose. You will sleep MUCH better I can assure you...No drugs needed, just discipline through the day...
  16. jbenedet
    Quite the blow up of convection off the Texas Coast...
  17. jbenedet
    Not really. June heatwaves don’t get enough attention. They are brutal. Heat index, and negative precip anomalies, doesn’t capture the intensity of the sun that accompanies the heat this time of year. Anything significantly exposed to direct sunlight during a heatwave in late June just bakes.....I’d bet some of the vegetation was UV-fried more than over-dried...New England grasses don’t stand a chance...
  18. jbenedet
    Thinning but still winning
  19. jbenedet
    Yea. That’s definitely the look out by you. More iffy along the sea coast today with the CF. Nowcasting type deal...
  20. jbenedet
    Never been happy for a day of misery mist until today. I’d gladly take a day tomorrow too...
  21. jbenedet
    I got stuck with my wife about 500 ft from summit on monadnock with severe overhead. Was able to quickly hunker down under a large rock... Not sure what I would have done had I not found that...Hail, high wind, CG lightning. Will never forget the sound of the thunder rolling through the valley. Just awesome. Wife was terrified. And she didn’t even know at the time that we were literally the highest point within a 100 miles. I was scared, but probably more fascinated than anything once I found that rock to crouch under. It was a looong 10 min though...Rain nearly flooded us out of our shelter too...
  22. jbenedet
    Would think this is adequate for a 10% lemon, over next day or two. A weak cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters through Wed. Low pressure may form along the front. The front will weaken into a trough from Wed into Thu. While this takes place, a trough will linger between South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Expect unsettled weather conditions over the waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas and westward to the Florida coast for the next few days. $$ Ramos
  23. jbenedet
    We have a -NAO/ -AO pattern developing in the eastern CONUS—synoptic scale troughing will predominate. I’m thinking sell the tracks into Texas, and look from central LA coast to panhandle Fla as biggest risk. Also hedge on the faster/more progressive side of guidance...6z GEFS really picking this up...
  24. jbenedet
    Tropical disturbance near Florida, on the Gulf side would appear Lemon worthy....
  25. jbenedet
    I remember when I first moved here and was wowed by the prospect of snow in May. I also believed anything more than a flake was strictly reserved for the white mtn region....clearly having to rethink that especially given we’re 9 days into it. We’re missing accums by a few degrees, it seems, but otherwise generally impressed with the rates and lack of mixing.... Should be great for the garden and lawn.... despite the wintry appeal.
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