jbenedet

Last time we had a -NAO was Dec 20th. Not saying it can't happen but that's clearly a break in persistence. My guess is delayed but not denied. Hedge accordingly on that front, until March

DAW 47/24. "Behind the cold front"

Less of a warm sector means less of a cold sector on the back-side. Take em' down (from big record highs) Thurs/Friday, means take em up Saturday and Sunday.

That's valid. But I think this "Cold Front" is BS; aka a misnomer. The airmass behind it doesn't even take us to normal Friday night/Sat am. The cold stays bottled up in Northern Maine and SE Canada, and escapes east. Full sun, west winds, and relatively warm aloft take care of the rest.

Okay for all locations in New England. We'll go with that.

lol the SE ridge.

Okay so what's your call?

So 33 for a high at DAW? lol. Any idea what kind of airmasses it took for DAW to peak at </=33 this season?!

Next week I see the troughing out west actually becomes more severe. There's a -NAO being advertised beyond 240 though. I think the -NAO needs to come into focus before optimism renews on big snows. Still looks outside 10 days.

MOS at hr 120. I'll take the 6z GEFS and the tenor of the season; with warm SST's, soil temps and pack beat back to the chicken coop. Thanks.

Nope not in Northfield. You're right.

Yea speed it up a bit and 50 potential is high in SNE. I don't expect guidance to ever see this though. It'll raise to mid 40's probably, near go time. The Friday CP airmass will be out in less than 24 hrs. West winds. Sun. SE ridge flex.

Take em up this weekend. More 50's and sun for SNE into SE NNE. Beautiful.

Yea it’s been unusual in that we have been lowering Friday temps, holding Thurs. but significantly raising Wednesday, as we move in. Wednesday nicer day than Friday.

I agree. I was wrong on that. Destructive interference FTL. It’s not all bad for the warm weenies though. Seems to me the trade-off has been less intense warmth for longer duration. This looks like 3 days of 55+ at PSM. The Wednesday wave warms us up but flattens out the subsequent wave and in turn, its warm sector is impinged. Still think 65 is a doable for a chunk of SNE including PSM, but the 70 number is off the table.

45/24 DAW. Another +10 Really nice in the sun. We take.

DAW 43/24. Hat and sweatshirt day in the sunny spots. Not bad.

The latest MJO guidance looks warmer as well. I'm seeing GEFS never making to phase 8. Both the bias corrected GEFS and ECMWF now end in phase 7. Could of course change but hedge accordingly.

Good to see it coming around. Last Friday’s setup got us low 60’s throughout SNE. And that was not nearly as good as this warm-up; especially timing wise. This window has a lot more “warm” tailwinds. We will be a lot warmer heading into it, in-situ airmass, and ground temps, better surface low track with warm sector pushing into southern Canada. I think 65 even at PSM is a conservative low bar.

Yea def 70’s on the table. The low end looks like low 60’s, so either way very warm. There’s pretty big differences between 0z GEFS and 18z EPS still. GEFS much warmer than EPS. The 18z EPS basically looks like this past Friday, while the 0z GEFS cuts into Ontario. The EPS look would bring with it those modeled clouds we’ve been talking about. MJO and teles all fit best with GEFS at that time frame so that’s my bet right now. And the lack of snow pack as well as warmth heading into it, adds positive tailwind to temps. Going big with 70’s Thurs.

That’s not your CF and well defined warm sector with 100% clouds in 1/3 of the CONUS. That’s all I’m saying. Doesn’t fit the bill; not at all. The rain on Thursday is a facade. That’s mesolow climo flexin’. Illusory. The real rain is on Friday. This is wonky. Sell the modeled qpf in New England on Thurs.

We’ll have to watch this aspect, but modeling of clouds 96 hrs out is like clown maps at 240. General guidance doesn’t have a socked in look at all. I don’t buy it. The cloud output looks like a wave that runs over PSM. Run of the mill, a lot of what we have seen recently. Completely different than a warm sector that lifts into Canada, which is being advertised at h5.

Records gonna get slayed Thursday. What a furnace incoming.

47/19 DAW. No wind. Mostly to partly sunny. Another great day.