jbenedet

HRRR really speeding up the end time. was right call to sell ccb with this. Sans Maine.

Looks like back end of the goods already in Central NH. Maine FTW. PWM will finish up nicely on this.

@OceanStWx snow growth dramatically improved past hr. moderate snow. Looks like this is the test here.

You’ve been in a great spot many times this season. This one especially. Cheers.

Yea still plenty of the storm left. My bet continues to be that rates are gonna have to be high end to stack, as we’ll be 33-34 ish during that window. And this system just doesn’t have the classic CCB dynamics to get excited on that front.

Pretty sure the peak measurement was 6 a.m. here for the storm. I don’t think we stack from here.

Looks like we peaked at 4” on cold surfaces. Heavy wet paste. Since that point we’ve already seen compaction and melting to more like 2-3” Rates have picked up but snow growth very poor, and often mixed with sleet. .

Speaking for south/eastern sections - The warmer than guidance temps were interesting to me because winds become easterly tonight, overcast rolls in. It's not a good wet bulbing setup. Temps will be stubborn to fall, and dews will rise ahead of the precip. We're also seeing more sun than guidance advertised. Add warmer ground, less snow pack. All these little things matter at the margin. Again, it will snow, but how much stacks is the real outcome we're interested in. 32 vs 33 matters A LOT if it endures. Of course, you interior guys in CNE/NNE can continue to not GAF about this.

Thank you for noticing and commenting. Most on here only let you know when you sucked.

The pacific improves, mid month. I'm talking specifically about the day 5 shortwave. I'm going to move over to Tip's thread.

Big changes in that regard from March 1st to 31st. So i'd hedge that statement, accordingly.

Man. When I look at history I don't take the sample size of ALL historical records. Narrow it down to similars. This year we have NOT had an issue with too much confluence; in such a season I'd absolutely agree. An ebbing -NAO with a raging pacific is problematic. Not my opinion; the snow totals this season reflect that.

Leave the house with a jacket; toss it on the ground when working in the sun type of day.

I don't like this one. Shortwave out west is generated with a bad pacific, and cold coming in behind it; at the same time on its treck east, the -NAO is ebbing.

The -AO is gonna want to dump cold on the back side of the next big threat - enters west coast day 5. This system is probably our pattern changer; with -EPO look following. I think we're warm sectored on this guy. Probably bigly.

Next week gonna look odd with strongly -AO/-NAO/-PNA Big troughs on the coasts. Early thoughts are that the -NAO wants to ease into second half, which means another deep shortwave out west is gonna be able to fight the confluence in MA, SNE.

Thanks for the balanced convo but they do suck. I've been burned before.

lol those 18z temps. We are already at/above at 15z

Trash. Those number in BOS are

Yea that's kinda what I'm worried about IMBY (dover). The heaviest comes on strong east winds; temps 33-34. That light stuff won't add up until evening, as BL takes time to cool. Wind is backing but diurnal max and lack of cold nearby. To be sure DAW is 10 miles to my NW, and it makes a *huge* difference in events like this.

*If*. But how many hours of heavy snow?

There's an IVT-ish feature that sets up overhead, looks like towards the end. But that move through at diurnal max, and I don't see cold on the back side of this. Areas not far from me, 10 miles, to the north/west will see a lot more. I think I'm gonna see a lot of snow falling from the sky but it's not gonna pile up here due to 32-34 temps throughout.

What is good? I think there's a sharp gradient where things really ramp - DAW -->west

Snow is falling but it probably aint stackin. SE NH/ Northeast MA.

Not sure. But I'm strongly inclined to say "yes" given it's not a local discrepancy, but region wide. Regarding wet bulbing - I'm focused on the eastern zones; and BL temps I believe is main issue. I believe surface temps will stay stubbornly high over night. There isn't low level CAD; winds easterly will cause dews to rise sharply out ahead of the precip. You guys in the interior are fine; plenty cold.