jbenedet

If you’re looking for significant cold this is a West of Mississippi River story. Several pieces of guidance are pointing in this direction. At this point, I think the East-central US has some reason for excitement in January; I.e. big snow potential. Not seeing this elsewhere at the moment. This is a N to AN look for the east coast, AN favored in the northeast.

Occam’s Razor. A “simple” hypothesis is one that doesn’t make unnecessary assumptions, not one that is conceptually simple.

100%. The foundation of NWP is chaos theory. I don’t believe most in here understand this, or they think they do but in reality, they don’t at all. They’ve never seen it demonstrated, explicitly. This stuff pisses me off to no end because the physical equations are robust; it is rock solid theory. It’s the future telling that causes the significant error bars; especially 5 days + out. It’s the addiction of wanting to see the future which has people abusing the modeling tools available to the general public and entrenching in the masses minds that atmospheric science is more BS than macroeconomics. Taken together, observations are far more powerful (skill-wise) than hypotheticals built on representations of the global atmosphere 2 weeks+ out which are then used to make regional forecasts. No Skill! In other words, more work analyzing does NOT translate to more accurate forecasting results. It just means more jargon and BS explanations that dupe the naive and ignorant, “this guy must know something.” It also means forecasting accuracy is likely lower because it is more clouded, staring at variables as if they are knowns, when in reality they are unknowns because at future time points they are very poorly resolved or not resolved at all. When it comes to complexity, most often, the simplest explanations are the most accurate ones.

Someone got the AC on down there at the south shore. 35 at PSM and PWM. No wind. As normal as you get for the calendar.

Currently 35 at Portsmouth. Average high for the date at Portsmouth NH: 36 Fake cold.

Man. No kiddin'. 40F in Newington is like the 2nd most popular topic in this dumpster fire.

Yea I know this is a controversial topic, on the order of politics and religion around here...But thinking of these as coyotes is set up to get surprised in a bad way on your home turf. Seems much smarter to have in your head that these are small wolves, and adapt to that. For one I cant see a coyote taking down deer; especially the large ones around here. A small wolf, sure...Sounds alarmist, but better mindset. And how do i know they're hunting deer? There's nothing else to eat, especially not on order to sustain a pack of animals that size. Deer has to be #1 on the menu this time of year.

Somebody get this guy a squirrel. Cheer em up.

It was the perceived size of the animal generating the deep howl, and the regularity of it which threw me off. Large husky size, to my ear. It's like every day now, right after sunset.

It's cool. But def unnerving. I tie my dog on at night - these howlers sound big as if they wouldn't have a hard time taking down a 50 lb dog. These guys are hunting deer; not scavenging the local trash. I'm adapting accordingly.

Anyone else hearing packs of coywolves on the regular? 5-8 p.m. ish ? Thought it was a neighbors wolf-dog/husky for a few weeks, but it clicked when my wife matter-of-factly was like "You hear that howling? That's gotta be coyotes" I was like, "duh, oh shit, she's probably right...." I listened more closely last night, and yes, definitely not the neighbors domesticated dog... Just taken aback given I'm right in downtown dover. I hear their howls daily, loud and clear echoing from my northwest, further up the Cocheco upstream from the dam at Central Ave. They also sound large, more of a wolf-like tone to the howl...

Okay you got me. You got too much time on your hands. Anyway - it's fake cold. We're already tracking near normal diurnal. Newington will finish near 40 today; i.e. Normal.

Fake cold. Newington already near 30

Man this place turning into the mid Atlantic sub forum. On deck for today’s big local weather news: High teens for lows! —On Dec 22nd… Zzzzzzzz……..

Seasonably cold and dry to warm and wet. Rinse repeat.

I was wrong about highest winds being in/around Portland. Still can’t figure out why. Seems like there were two maxes, SE MA, then again towards midcoast Maine. In between noticeably less (coastal NH included).

Says the guy who eats squirrels.

That’s a seasonably cold and dry look. If clippers are your thing, get excited on that run. My earlier point was just that: when the cold arrives big storms aren’t nearby. Maybe we get lucky, but that’s been the general theme since November.

This is why I'm going ratter for SNE. This op run WILL change but it illustrates how misleading the H5 longwave pattern can be (especially on those weeklies). Even with -NAO, no problem for pacific Jet stemming from tropical pacific to cook the northeast.

Man if that's the case how are you expecting above average snowfall for the season. TOUGH odds. Jan and February have the toughest comps.

That's part of it, but the big piece I'm looking at is if the heavy precip stays out of canada - no man pack develops to our north/west, which portends risk of an earlier end to winter; i.e. take down March/April expectations.

What kinda sucks about this too is that a) not our cold source regions b) this snow melts within day or two of falling, even in Jan. It doesn't reinforce cold. Transient.

the interior SE and mid atlantic have better chances of hooking up with big snows in January; than SNE, I think.

Pattern is improving but from such a terrible point. I'm comfortable going ratter for SNE before first day of winter. Some observations on why: 1) Generally: Northern stream is traversing our region when big storms are not nearby. Said differently, snow potential is highest for small disturbances, rain potential is highest for strong disturbances. N to slightly BN happening mostly with dry conditions. AN conditions happening mostly with wet conditions. 2) Generally: The Pacific jet is producing our big storms; and even with -NAO in place, and blocking, sig El Nino conditions are sufficient to overwhelm confluence and the BL with p-type/accumulation issues. Blocking won't flee it will, "strangely" erode. 3) Snow-cover near all time lows by Jan 1; this includes our key cold source regions in Southern Canada.

Spotted in Newmarket today.