jbenedet

Kind of an irony where the simplest forecast, again, would have been the best. All the rest is BS. We’re tracking somewhere between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 snowfall wise in the CONUS. The former was a moderate El Niño, the latter a super El Niño. We’re tracking between those El Niño conditions today; strong El Niño. Shocker! Nope not at all if you can tune out all the noise. Take those years, average the outcome, run it from this point. That’s your best guess for high end snow/cold outcome from here. Hedge in favor of less than that baseline with +1C surface temps vs 06/07; 15/16 average.

It’s an important initial condition. But it’s also one among many. That’s all. It’s all a game of odds. This one piece is stacked against colder and snowier. Hedge. Accordingly.

Hey look on the bright side-Maybe we can break some all-time low records on North American snow cover over the next 5 days.

Eyeballing it, but by end of this weekend I believe North America (including south Canada only) will be tracking close to a month behind in terms of snow cover (SWE). Kinda important to add a AN bias to surface temps until/unless this gap closes. Area covered by snow: Dec 15 2023: 18.7% Dec 15 2022: 42.3% Dec 15 2015: 37.4% December 2015 was paltry snow-cover in the CONUS but manpack across southern canada, especially vs this year.

We've had 8 years of AGW, though. I'm half-kidding on this topic.

Yea it’s warm, but take up those progged surface temps with this look, Saturday and Sunday. Low 50’s make more sense across SNE away from the immediate shore. …Heavy clouds and all, this is a furnace that’s going to take the climo corrections to the woodshed. Won’t see it in guidance, ever, either—we’ll just wake up to it.

That’s a powder keg of UL forcing for Florida/GA. Wow. only 96 hours out, too

Where is the sarc tag on this.

That’s a cutter on the 18/19th. Maybe a “where no one lives special” @Damage In Tolland will surely warn of impending doom whatever it is. The following day, branches down and puddles galore. Oh the horror. Happy tracking stick season.

DAW: 45/45 ”behind the cold front”

Tropical airmass getting ingested into this system from the tropical pacific.

That NAM run was drunk.

Guidance way too cold at this hr; 47/47 at PSM as of 8:55 a.m.

Nah. It’s a background feature due to recurring split flow out west; even when it’s subtle it’s important but easy to overlook.

The El Niño is already amplifying +NAO conditions and deamplifying -NAO conditions. It’s a mystery to most bc this doesn’t show up in the index.

It’s safest to take the under on the snow accum side. You’ll have snow falling but storm racing north northeast while ground is warm and temps are in mid to up 30’s. The airmass behind it is seasonal at best. It’s the warmth and associated subtropical jet ahead of it that’s making for the fireworks.

The warmth today is a pretty big indication of the “wind” aspect of the storm potential tomorrow.

I’m actually thinking the opposite with this. Kinda like that one time out of 20 where the model guidance is not going to fail for its known biases.

Areas out of the clouds are going to blow past the progged highs today.

The subtropical jet is heavily involved in this system, and it’s being “amped” by the El Niño conditions; can trace its origins to the south central Pacific.

Yea. That’s entertainment we’re getting now, as the snow weenies post those 384 hr+ H5 maps with long wave pattern decently positioned “pattern change!” but North America effin’ torched under the hood.

At least up here... November is a greater snow producing month than April. December is a greater snow producing month than March. Kind of a big deal if you are striking and fouling through Jan 1. Just probability. You know, mathssss.... I think recent years have us biased into believing we can easily make up lost ground with one MECS+ storm. Those odds are not worth banking on.

Looking a lot like 2015 to date. Especially given the likely outcome of the big warmup starting today and then inland runner this weekend.

For the love of god; please punt this shit pattern. Seasonal, overcast and dry/cold rain is depression with the backdrop of short daylight hours. BEER.

lol on those clown maps from 12z today and earlier. White rain FTL