jbenedet

Yea, this looks a lot more like a latitude capped storm—>early occlusion, with UL heights building over top of it due to trough in the pacific and then slide ENE. The 12z CMC does not make any sense to me; 12z GFS much closer to the actual evolution imo.

I’m def more in the camp that this is a mid Atlantic—>south snow storm at the moment. However there will be a significant longitudinal gradient. Where H5 closes off, in and away from the coast, sees the jack. The GFS track/evolution was near perfect for a significant mid Atlantic storm but look at the east surface winds ripping. And they never orient N/Northeast, instead to ENE. The surface high in reality extends from eastern Canada to Bermuda, and therefore maintains the surface wind direction off the Atlantic. This is being flagged on the ensembles, with +surface temp anomalies. Model guidance has consistently been too cold with very short lead times this season. It’s ridiculous that GFS has LI in low mid 30’s with this wind and SST’s in upper 40’s. It’s a major issue for NYC metro. Hell even BOS will be 40F with this look.

There is no argument. You picked one map of two bc that fits your snow glass view. Talk to me about the EPS H5 and Pacific jet. Good luck. “See more snow” Yup. Got it.

Oh wait. Lemme get this straight—you were analyzing the output from one op run at day 8, and I’m the one grasping for straws with the EPS output. See more snow. Apt name. Accurate.

That’s 2m temp anoms. Thanks. We know. Your H5 is there also, because of that.

I believe you’re right on this. The pacific worsening as this is trying to get going is outweighing the northern stream improvements in the east.

And the weenies were rejoicing this morning on… who the eff knows. You know, you guys can run these loops too…Just sayin’. Hope springs eternal.

12z GEFS looks like dog shit for the 4th. Gone.

You guys read model output verbatim. Report on it. Thanks for the pbp. Cool. We all can read.

I think you can get an early phase; but it’s a mistake to extrapolate a further north track—it’s a cut-off slide ENE. Confluence over the western Atlantic.

That’s a robust -NAO turned to western Atlantic ridge for the 7th/8th. Thanks to the skunked pacific. -NAO be damned. Easterly flow, warm.

That’s close for areas like Richmond VA, up to ACY. 12 hours earlier phase. Boom. That region should be watching very closely.

“Ignoring”. Not the right choice of words chief. You lazy guys just need your daily dose of model crack to get through the day. Hope springs eternal.

Jan 4 is the big dog potential when the pacific isn’t skunked. It’s just too far south for us; save maybe extreme southern sections.

A whiff… And then a whiff or rain. Can’t wait.

Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air.

The serviceable airmass for 4/5 is gone by the 7th.

The 7th one is all but completely off the table. Even if the track somehow takes it north to our region, which is unlikely in and of itself, it will be flooded with tropical pacific air. Rain. Careful what you wish for. You guys…SMH

Laugh at what you want but these dumazz tik tokers would have had higher verification scores than most of the people in here —degrees and all—by studying effin’ wooly worms for 3 min. Yup that’s right, those big ugly hairy mfers crawling around your yard in late fall. But models… Sebastian Maniscalco voice: “Aren’t you embarrassed???”

Yea guy, modelology FTW.. Better off listening to the 12z CMC over the 12z GEFS. Right? That cohort of modelololgists wasting everyone’s time. Verification scores; easiest thing to check but let’s look at more garbage output because, well, we’re lazy and can’t think for ourselves. Good luck.

Yes Jan 4 threat is real. I’ve made that clear. It’s a small window before the large scale pattern reasserts. But I think this window is dry for our subforum.

Yea that’s what I’m feeling.

Yea first time since last winter season. Add it to the growing list of signs pointing to a big warmup in coming weeks.

The 2nd week of January, beginning Jan 7th-ish, looks like torchiest (?) period so far this season. Whoever gains a pack prior will be wiped out during this window. Very strong signal for significant +T anamolies with duration. Thinking this will be weenie cliff-jump period.