jbenedet

You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season… Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety

Guidance looks way too warm at the surface today. No idea how temps rise much from here with north winds already being felt down to Hartford and clouds thickening up…

Classic cold tuck. This season? Gonna be freezing down to NYC metro

A lot of that “rain” on guidance SoP, I think in actuality will be freezing rain. To me, it’s a classic case of take the under on surface temps and the over on 950 mb -850 mb warm layer. I certainly wouldn’t be taking the guidance verbatim at the surface with how cold this year has been north of the boundary…

I mean this is a very classic ice storm look for SNE, south of pike.

This looks like a signiicant icing event south of pike with potential all the way down to 95. Needless to say, glad I’m largely missing this one to the north…

Pretty well summarize what I’ve been saying in that the northern jet which has been comfortably south of our region all winter now has a mean position right over our hood. It’s mid wintet north of it and mid spring south of it. Yesterday and today a perfect juxtaposition especially with no big storms and associated fronts, before, during or after….

If sunshine is maximized with no clouds —as it is today—it does a lot of damage to the pack.

Ole’ man winter letting us out with the seasonal change. A steady and subtle progression. Just keep ticking lines of latitude north on that northern jet with the ISR increasing and we’re good to welcome real spring earlier than in recent years.

In the middle of a snow hole. Just flurries right now. The bigly scattered precip materialized up here as I expected but the look just to my south along Ma/NH border is more impressive than thought would be… Looking further upstream in VT and upstate NY—it will continue here as scattered and light. Not expecting more than an inch here

Gonna be a brutal early spring for the immediate shore folks with near normal SST’s to start. GWDLT

First time can say “fake cold” in a while. Gonna make a run close to 40 today..

Selling this thing. Not seeing the forcing…Taking the way under on qpf around here… Maybe points south eke out a weak isentropic lift event. I’m expecting a very showery and light radar look up here… where is the surface low? Forming near our Atlantic surface high?

Exactly. It’s like we forgot that this could happen. Then start thinking back to the good ol’ climate days… Recency bias. We were in a persistent cold spot like the one in your stagnant warm backyard pool that just needs to get mixed out or cooked by increasing sun angle

Can’t get out of winter soon enough with energy prices spiking. Nat gas included…

Those big Canadian highs will keep popping but if you’re south of the boundary with zonal flow — oh well. West to east the CP airmass goes without doing much more than grazing your hood with one cold night and morning.

The northern jet has been few hundred miles further south in the northeast than in recent years. It’s been very warm outside of that area—west, south etc. With climo into March, even if the persistence sticks, the jet persistence lifts north and the boundary for BN is north of us. Last Saturday with 50’s and no real warm front, gave us a taste of what’s close by in this pattern—we just need climo progression. With that, and no -NAO on the horizon , it makes sense that our first widespread 60+ degree days in months should arrive next week…

Looks opposite from this time last year. I’m expecting AN March and April.

Wintah is ova Next three days is noise; not the signal. We are let out; and it will be earlier than last year with +NAO state.

If we can ease out of winter would be most preferred —keep the lawn pack protected until climo eliminates risk of a hard freeze. Should that happen could make for a most beautiful April… One could wish.

Effff even the big snow potentials at this point. 10 types a gawge out there now.

I’m back to highest rates of the storm. Solid moderate with a band intensifying overhead. Thinking the last quarter of this will really stack up this evening here.

This storm is remarkable in the sense that its heaviest snows are happening in the most densely populated areas. That banding that stalled over Philly last night, NYC sw CT and LI this and then Gloucester, Boston SE MA/RI CCB

Looks like a new mid level stalled band has formed - PWM-DAW-ASH-ORH