winterwx21

BTW the 12z UKMET showed a 1 to 2 inch snowfall. Yeah it's quite a model spread right now. Euro barely brushes us while GGEM is too ampted and rain. GFS in between, showing a significant snow event. Hopefully we will see an in between scenario as you mentioned. Hopefully we'll have a good idea by friday. Always seems to take awhile for the models to agree.

I just watched the color loop, and the GGEM is actually is showing rain for NYC sunday.

At least it's gonna be cold monday and tuesday. So we'd have a couple days to enjoy the snow on the ground, before the big melting midweek.

A miss with the coastal storm, but CMC did give us a light snowfall sunday morning. About an inch. GFS tried to show a little something too.

Last night's Euro hit us with some snow, but today's 12z run is out to sea. GFS and GGEM are too far to the south and east as well. Obviously still plenty of time for it to trend closer. At least there is a potential storm, and it's not bad having the models too far south and east at this early point.

The 18z run of RGEM is saying maybe we get up to an inch of snow tomorrow morning. That certainly would be nice.

I see RGEM has it as light snow (a dusting to half inch) for us tomorrow morning, rather than freezing rain. Hopefully that will be the case.

I always enjoy and appreciate your posts, Don. We have a mild week coming up this week and potential for a mild late February. Sounds as if it's important to take advantage of the cold window we have coming in mid February. Cold air comes in next sunday and stays for several days. Hopefully we can get a snow event during that period.

32 degrees with snow flurries here right now. After 99% of the storm was rain, we're seeing a tiny bit of frozen precip here at the end. Pavement is just wet, but a slight glaze on the cars.

For days GFS kept insisting my area would see a horrific ice storm, but instead we ended up being all rain here. It was way off for my area. The truth for the tri-state ended up being in between GFS and the warmer models. Even though GFS overdid it, it certainly was useful since it alerted us early on that there would be an ice threat for at least part of the area.

I don't think we can say anyone busted or scored a victory, considering what a strange situation we have going on right now. It's not very often that NYC and parts of Long Island are below freezing with freezing rain while a good part of northern and north-central NJ is above freezing with plain rain. For part of the area it's a serious situation while for another part of the area it's a big nothing.

Lee Goldberg was just talking about what an unusual situation it is, with NYC below freezing while a good part of northern NJ is above freezing with plain rain. This is something we very rarely see, but some of the short range models did a good job picking up on the idea of cold air draining down into NYC but not areas just west of the city. I am still 36 with plain rain here.

An all plain rain event for our area. Still 37 degrees here.

We really got unlucky with that big storm earlier in January where Atlantic City got 13 inches while we got nothing. It would have been a great snow month for us had that storm hit us. Instead it was just a pretty good snow month with 2 moderate snowstorms hitting our area. I know a different story for the Jersey shore and Long Island, since they got huge amounts from that last storm.

50 degrees here right now. The warmest day we've had in a long time. A lot of melting.

GGEM, on the other hand, is much warmer with mainly plain rain.

12z Euro just came in warmer with a rain event, but obviously a long way to go.

It definitely can be frustrating. And I am a little frustrated that we missed out on the really big totals that the Jersey shore and Long Island are getting, but I'm still happy with this storm. It's not as if we got a small advisory level event. It was a solid warning level event here. 7 inches is a significant amount of snow. Not bad at all. After missing 2 other snowstorms to the south this month, I'm glad we didn't miss out on this one.

Thanks for the update on that. Your 7.25 is just about the same as the measurement I just got here. Still coming down decently here -- high end light snow, but the back edge is getting close. I'm probably going to end up a little over 7 and a half inches. Close to what we were expecting last night.

It's picking up a little bit here again as we get closer to the back edge. I think most amounts in Middlesex County will be between 6 and 8. I have a little over 7 here.

The snowfall rates have picked up a bit here again. Low end moderate I'd say here right now. The back edge isn't too far away though. Maybe we pick up another half inch? Ending up between 7 and 8 looks reasonable but of course it varies a little from town to town. Some in Middlesex county will be closer to 6 while some get 7 to 8.

We definitely have quite a bit more than 4 considering the size of the drifts. At least 6. Measuring is very difficult obviously. I actually have us close to 7 now but it's tough to be exact. RU848789 is in Metuchen (not too far away) and he is excellent at measuring, and reported 6 and a quarter inches a couple hours ago. So I think I'm pretty close with the near 7 measurement I had a little while ago. Too bad we missed the much bigger amounts, but this is still a very nice warning level storm for our area. We have a couple more hours of snow to go too.

It's not heavy, but a steady moderate snow. Radar actually looks pretty good. Could have a few more hours of light to moderate snow. We're approaching 7 inches now, so I think we have a good chance of getting to 8. About what we were expecting. A nice storm.

I agree. 6 to 10 inches is a very nice and significant storm. It was very frustrating that we completely missed 2 other snowstorms to the south this month. I'm just happy that we're not going to miss it this time.

Yeah this Euro run really isn't showing amounts much different than we were expecting. We know that you have to go well east of the city to get a blockbuster storm. A good 7 or 8 inches for our area is still a very nice storm.