winterwx21

Good luck getting that to work out without much cold air in place. The other models have rain, which makes more sense considering the pattern and what has been going on. 12z Euro also has another big rainstorm wednesday next week. This pattern is extremely ugly with rainstorm after rainstorm likely.

50 degrees here right now.

Rainstorm after rainstorm after rainstorm coming. Horrendous pattern. It's a huge football weekend. I say it's time to stop looking at this hopeless weather for a couple days and enjoy the weekend.

Seems extremely unlikely that the late week storm will work out with no cold air in place before the storm. 6 days out so we'll keep an eye on it, but I'm not getting my hopes up on that one.

Yeah that's the amazing thing. We haven't even had a close call. It's not as if we had a storm in which southern NJ got snow and we just barely missed out due to bad luck. We haven't even had anything close. It has been the most hopeless winter ever.

That's our hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. One huge KU in February that saves the winter. Wouldn't be a surprise with today's wild climate.

Euro probably will be right, considering how everything has ended up this winter. And even if the other models are right, it's hard to see a front end dump for the NYC area with no cold air in place. You'd probably have to go well NW.

Which is why I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows thursday's storm giving us any accumulating snow before changing to rain. It's going to be 50 degrees on wednesday before the storm. Hard to get a front end dump when there isn't any cold air before a storm.

Yeah that's a real longshot. 12z Euro isn't even close. Way offshore. It's continues to look like rain late thursday into early friday and then a dry chilly weekend. A very mild week next week.

Yep the CMC lost the idea of a 2nd low giving us some precip on saturday. Nothing even gets close. It looks like the GFS now ... some rain thursday night into friday and then a dry weekend. I'm guessing the Euro will lose it tonight too.

The event for late in the week is speeding up so much that rain might come in thursday afternoon. It's looking like a thursday night into friday morning rain and then a dry weekend.

Yep. Since January is shot, we're now down to the hope of one big storm salvaging the winter in February or March. Getting a KU in the 2nd half of the winter is our only hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. With today's crazy climate it certainly wouldn't be a shock if that happened, but overall the situation for this winter is bleak. We're going to get to late January without an inch of snow. Pretty much as bad as it gets for snow lovers.

12z Euro is earlier with the timing. Most of the rain is friday morning, and then a dry weekend. Less than an inch of rain for most of us on this run. Of course 6 days away, so it's too early to know details.

Make sure you listen to Bluewave and Allsnow from now on. They know what they're talking about.

This is as ugly as it gets for winter weather lovers. On January 6th we haven't even had a half inch of snow and the rest of January looks terrible. Most likely a rainstorm the end of next week and another blowtorch pattern after that. Sad, but we should do our best to enjoy the warm weather by doing more stuff outdoors.

Super warm. Rain all the way up into Canada.

The problem with models like GFS and CMC showing a mix storm right now (possibly a front end dump) is these things tend to trend NW and warmer as they get closer. We've seen it with our other storms this season, so I'm not very optimistic about getting a front end dump storm out of this. I think it'll likely trend warmer as it gets closer, but you never know for sure so we'll keep an eye on it. If we get lucky it would be a true thread the needle event. It's just a very brief shot of colder air late week, and then we warm up big-time the following week. So we'd really have to have great luck in a very brief window. Seems pretty unlikely with how things have been going this winter.

What a shock that next weekend's storm is already turning into a warm cutter on the models, lol. It fits with everything that has been happening in this terrible winter. It appears that we're heading towards one of our least snowy winters ever. We're probably going to get to late January without anything more than a dusting of snow here for the winter. Sad, but nothing we can do about it so I'm doing my best to enjoy the warm weather by doing a lot of stuff outdoors.

No I've never been to Musconetcong. I know it's beautiful though so I'll check it out soon. Today I did some hiking in Readington. I also like to go to Great Swamp, Round Valley Recreation Area and Swartswood State Park. Swartswood State Park up in Sussex County is my favorite hiking area.

Just hit 65 here! I'm going to take advantage of this nice warm weather. Heading out to Hunterdon county where I deer hunt to do some hiking.

I'm talking about in the longer range. Most snowstorm threats that are 7+ days out on the models fail. Snowstorms should only be forecasted when they get to the more accurate/reasonable day 5 range, IMO.

Yep. We know that most snowstorm chances fail for our area, so it's best to look for what could go wrong rather than what could go right. I like Anthony's enthusiasm, but he's always looking for what could go right rather than what could go wrong and that leads to disappointment most of the time.

It's January 4th and we haven't had anything more than a dusting of snow, and the pattern doesn't look very favorable. Obviously we can get thread the needle snow events in bad winters, so no one should be saying we won't get any snow at all this winter. But the situation is not good at all. You seem to be in denial.

Yeah I'm so tired of the GFS messing with us. It wasn't long ago that it had snow for us this friday, but of course we now know it's just gonna be a little light rain. GFS has teased us several times this winter. Horrible model that should be ignored when it doesn't have any support from other models. I just looked at the CMC and it doesn't have snow for us next week.

Euro doesn't have anything for us on friday. It just brushes southern NJ with a little rain. CMC has pretty much nothing too. For people hoping 12z GFS is right, the problem is we're coming off warm weather and it's a rain changing to snow situation. Rain changing to snow situations don't usually work out for areas near the coast unless it's a strong system. This is a weak system, so I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows NYC getting an inch or two of snow. This event is a real longshot. Probably nothing, but if we do get something you'd probably have to go well northwest to see accumulation.