winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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We've had almost no rain here since the flooding a few weeks ago. The ground is very dry and I'm having to water the vegetable garden often. Next week looks rough with very little chance of rain during the big heat wave. The grass will be burning out. I know Walt was talking about a potential flash drought a couple days ago. I hope we're not heading towards a drought like what happened last year at the end of the summer and the fall.
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Talk about a hot Euro run. Heat wave next week, but it's even hotter in the long range for the week of the 18th. We're getting a nice break here in early August, but mid August is probably going to be the worst part of this summer. We had those extremely intense heat waves in late June and late July, but they only lasted a few days. The heat in mid August is going to be much longer lasting.
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I never said I wanted a deluge. I would have liked a couple heavy downpours to deliver a half inch to 1 inch to give everything out there a very good watering, instead of just a quarter inch. It's very dry here because we've gotten almost no rain since that flooding 2 and half weeks ago. But a quarter inch is a better than nothing ... I'll take it. Temp is all the way down to 72 too. I'll be going outside to run shortly and it will be nice to run in rain cooled air.
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I got only 0.10" from the t-storm that brushed my area earlier. Now we're starting to add to that a little bit with some steady light to moderate rain and I'm up to 0.15" for the day so far. To me it appears I'm not going to get too much rain today. Maybe we end up with a quarter inch, just barely enough to water the garden. I was hoping for more significant rain today.
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It is very dry here right now, so I'm hoping for some heavy rain. I'll take the 1 to 2 inches that this HRRR run shows for our area, but of course we don't want the huge flooding amounts that this run shows for Monmouth County. Obviously it's difficult for the model to pinpoint exactly where those jackpot amounts will occur. The next run will probably look different. Who knows.
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And I see 12z GFS now brings in the blazing heat during the 2nd week of the month, maybe the hottest weather of the summer. A long way to go for details on how hot it will get, but we have building support for significant heat as Don pointed out. We need to enjoy the comfortable 1st week of the month before it gets very hot again.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
97 with a dewpoint of 67 here. Hot, but it doesn't feel as bad as I thought it would. Dewpoint of 67 isn't terrible. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Temps on Friday are probably gonna stay around 70 due to the clouds and NE winds. That is going to be quite a shock after this tremendous heat wave. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I see Newark is already up to 98. They're probably going higher than 100 today. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Already 95 here. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Euro now brings the 90s back early to mid next week. Looks like a break for a few days and then we go back to the heat. It's 94 with a dewpoint of 67 here right now. Doesn't feel terrible today. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
92 with a dewpoint of 68 here right now. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
12z NAM 3km was a joke with how far off it was with the heavy rain it had going through this area late morning and midday. HRRR much closer to reality. I'm hoping for some rain today since it's very dry here. We've had very little since the floods a couple weeks ago. It's not looking great for rain today though ... HRRR has very little and it appears that we have only a slight chance.
