winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Continues to look like very little rain tomorrow. Maybe just a little light rain or a shower, with most likely less than a tenth of an inch.
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The afternoon Euro and GFS runs took us to 100 next week. Hopefully overdoing it a little bit, but we'll see.
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RGEM tonight has nothing too. I was hoping for rain because we really need it, but I know most people will be happy because it's a Saturday.
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Not surprisingly the NAM models shifted south on the 18z run. Saturday is looking like very little rain.
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RGEM was showing a big soaker, but now it shifted south. I see Euro just shifted a little south. It's still a very close call, but it seems to be going in the direction of the heavier rain missing to the south for Saturday morning to early afternoon with only some light rain up here.
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The Canadian models are a soaker for Saturday, but most other models show very little. We'll have to see if most of the rain misses to the south.
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Steady but fairly light, so maybe a quarter inch.
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We really need a nice 4th of July weekend after that terrible Memorial Day weekend.
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Yeah I got 1.05" from all those heavy downpours. The downpours were very brief but we got so many rounds that it really added up. The round of steady rain for today is about to start, but as you said it looks pretty light.
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Pouring again. Very pleased.
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Good batch of moderate to heavy rain here over the last half hour. Close to a half inch for the day, so I'm glad it hasn't been a bust here. Models show a good soaking for tomorrow too, so overall this is the best event since Memorial Day weekend. Desperately needed.
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Yep but it was a pretty good downpour. I got 0.28" here between both downpours. Enough to give things a much-needed watering, but hopefully we'll see another downpour later. And hopefully the models are right about the steady rain tomorrow.
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Pouring again. At least this downpour will last a little longer.
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Very brief. Poured for only a few minutes and I had some 40mph wind gusts. I was just barely on the southern edge of it. A quick tenth of an inch. This other downpour approaching from the southwest will be here shortly and should deliver more significant rain. Just heard a rumble of thunder from it.
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Getting a heavy downpour now with strong winds.
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It's going to be close. I can see the dark clouds just to the north from the storms that have formed and are moving into Union and maybe extreme northern Middlesex. Then we have a couple downpours just to our southwest that are moving northeast. Hopefully going to get something shortly.
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HRRR has been showing some very heavy rain for a little south of NYC, and we can see that storm on radar now. Looks like some heavy stuff will be going into Mercer, Middlesex and Monmouth. It might miss me to the south but it's going to be close.
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I see the models now longer the rain pretty much all day tomorrow, which is a change. So we should get a decent amount no matter what happens with today's convection, but hopefully we'll see a heavy downpour this afternoon.
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HRRR and NAM3km going nuts tonight, saying some spots could get 4 to 5 inches. Good to see the models beefing it up tonight. Hopefully this won't disappoint.
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Certainly would be nice if GFS is right about heavy rain across our area, but who knows. 12z HRRR has heavy rain going over our area, but obviously the day before it's very difficult for the models to predict which areas will get 1 to 2 inches and which areas only a quarter inch. Hopefully we'll get lucky with the heavy downpours. I'm desperate for heavy rain.
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12z Euro still looks good -- an inch to inch and a half for most of the area. GFS misses to the south with the heavier rain while RGEM misses to the north. Who knows at this point, but even the areas that miss the heavier rain should still get some.
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Maybe you should go look at the drought monitor map. Most of our area is now in a severe drought. Obviously you're not a farmer or gardener so you don't understand how rough these conditions are.
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I was hoping for a little something today but obviously it doesn't look good. I know SPC still has us in a slight risk most models give us nothing. Monday continues to look like our one big chance to get a soaking, so hopefully it will deliver.
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Just had a very brief moderate shower here. Only 0.02".
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I never was high on Thursday's severe threat because the timing is too early. Late morning to midday is not the timing you want for t-storms. Anyway, Monday appears to be our one big chance for a desperately needed big soaking. Hopefully that will work out, but I'm not getting my hopes up too high yet since it's 5 days away.
