winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Which is why I wouldn't be overconfident about our area getting a ton of rain this weekend. It might happen or it might not. Look at all the events we had this summer. Some overperformed big-time and some were big busts. The models are wildly inconsistent.
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RGEM not impressed with tomorrow's round. Dries it up and mainly light rain during the day tomorrow with round 1. Not even a half inch for me. But whether we get just a half inch tomorrow or the wetter models end up being right and it's over an inch, I don't care. Either way it's a miserable saturday with outdoor plans ruined for everyone.
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And most of that UKMET rain is sunday into sunday night. Struggles to get it north tomorrow like some of the other models. Ends up being an impressive event on some models despite not much tomorrow.
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Who knows. Hard to predict what area will be near the cutoff as far as heavy rain vs light rain tomorrow. Stormlover is right when he says it could go either way for our area.
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Yeah that's an embarrassing shift for the CMC. It went from showing heavy rain coming in dramatically tomorrow morning to now just light rain. I think JM is gonna be on the money about the confluence eating up tomorrow's rain, but we shall see.
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You can see on the models tomorrow's precip getting eaten up as it moves north by the confluence/dry air from the high pressure to the north as jm1220 has been talking about. We could be counting on sunday to get our bigger totals.
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Yep. Most people would think we're nutty people here for spending time debating whether this will be a half inch or 2 inch rain event lol.
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I would go closer to the 1 due to the dry air issue, but we shall see. Like Stormlover said it could go either way.
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Yeah still a nice soaking on the RGEM, but like I said a significant cutback. It had been giving our area close to 3 inches of rain.
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NAM doesn't even give us an inch for the whole weekend now. RGEM has cut back significantly too. I think jm1220 has made a good point about this having to overcome the high pressure and dry air. It's going to be a miserable rainy weekend and we might get an inch to an inch and a half, but you probably have to go to the south to get the much bigger totals.
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GFS continues to not be impressed with saturday. Just a quarter to half inch for most on the 0z run, but we end up getting a good soaking for the weekend due to significant rain on sunday.
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Yeah RGEM gives most of the area 2 and half to 3 inches of rain. The Canadian models continue to be the most impressed with this event.
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And 0z HRRR really shows what you're talking about. The significant rain really struggles to get up into our area on the HRRR. It weakens and a lot of northern NJ and the NYC area gets less than a half inch. It's far from a sure thing that the first round of rain on saturday is gonna be significant. Saturday will be a rainy day for sure, but it could just be light to moderate amounts up here with the heavier stuff staying south.
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Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out.
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Yeah it still ends up a nice soaking even though the significant rain can't get too far northwest on saturday, thanks to rain continuing on sunday. There's definitely a signal from some models for significant rain struggling to get well to the north and west on saturday. Even on the RGEM our heaviest rain comes sunday morning. Saturday is gonna be a wet day, but it's possible that it's just a moderate amount of rain for our area (heavier at the coast) with our heavier rain coming sunday. But of course there are some models that get the heavier rain up here saturday, so who knows. Still will be a little while before we know the details, but overall the weekend is a big washout with a lot of rain.
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As perfect as it gets today. Mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 40s. It sucks that the weekend is gonna be a washout, but spending a lot of time outside today.
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Yesterday I was hoping the east trend would continue, but the CMC has been so consistent and everything else also gives us a big soaking. UKMET is a crazy model.
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That's the GFS. Ukie isn't out yet.
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Looks like around October 1st is when above normal temps come back.
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Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either gonna get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know.
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UKMET is well east for saturday. Just brushes the Jersey shore and LI with a little light rain.
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Yeah the idea of the whole month of September being warm didn't work out. All of the big September warmth was confined to the first third of the month. For the rest of the month it's just mostly near normal temps.
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Give it a try sometime. They do a lot of great special soft serve flavors. I am gonna get soft graham cracker today.
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As Allsnow said, we just can't get rid of this rainy pattern. I was hoping for a nice weekend, but what are you going to do. Will take advantage of the beautiful weather we have now during the week. I'm heading to Hunterdon County to do some hiking and will stop at Polar Cub for some ice cream.
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And the CMC gets 4 inches of rain to our area.
