Yanksfan
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Everything posted by Yanksfan
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Everybody needs to chill. Any individual OP run can’t handle all the little nuances from the bombardment of waves that it’s trying to decipher. Look at the GFS for instance. It’s flip flopping like a fish from run to run. We need to focus on tonight only and forget about a storm that is days away. Once this upcoming storm passes and hopefully produces, then we can turn our attention to the next potential event.
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Great post. Someone in the NE forum several years ago said it best during a high potential period for snow, “You can’t shovel potential.”
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Wow I would sign up for half of that and run with it!
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Is it just me but I noticed when a model run shows the Saturday storm trend south, it pushes the Tuesday/Wednesday threat south due to the fact of the first wave lowering heights in its wake and vice versa. That would make it difficult to have an impactful event with both storms.
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I keep looking out the window. Looks like an icy mix of snow and sleet. Meh. Already looking ahead to Saturday nights event. -
That’s just nuts. I’d sign up for half of that. Then again maybe not!
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In an alternate universe I would have loved to see March 2001 having lived up to its full potential. I’ll never forget the forecast write up from the NWS a few days before the big bust occurred. Downright ominous.
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I want a damn KU event. We’re overdue. Make it happen!
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I’d be surprised if they don’t. Warnings need to be extended into the rest of North Jersey, the City and LI.
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I know this is insignificant in the grand scheme of things but I think Upton is playing it conservative. I think they should have gone with warnings for Hudson, Union, and the remainder of Essex counties. The city I believe should remain as an advisory with the risk of mixing, but if recent trends continue with the meso models getting colder the city just might achieve warning level status when all is said and done.
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NAM looks juicy!
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I live in Nutley township. Currently there are no advisories. Just 3 miles away in Clifton they are under a watch. Talk about being on the fence!
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Euro OP we toss.
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Woah. Now that’s a move west!
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GFS has a 1044 high in West Virginia which suppresses the storm out to see. The CMC has a trough instead which allows the storm to come right up the coast. Interested to see what EURO has to say.
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With the lack of snow in the NYC metro area (this includes NE Jersey) in recent years, I would get the usual gruff from friends and family that would say it’s climate change better get used to it. Now we finally have the cold air this winter and we still cant cash in. The response I hear is confluence and improper trough alignment, Yet when there’s a cutter forecast from 10 days out, you can bet the mortgage it’s a lock. My point is it just comes down to bad luck nothing more.
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To stay away from any conflict, I think you’re both right. Yes the EPS was an improvement but there’s obviously more work to be done. Until the Euro gets fully on board, I’m not diving in yet. Been burned too many times my friends.
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We need the Euro to come on board. Don’t necessarily need to see what the GFS is showing, but marked improvements would make the snow weenies happy.
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Wow. You can argue the EPS is just as ominous as what the GFS is showing next weekend. Not getting sucked in just yet; let’s give it a few days. The raging Pacific Jet concerns me that it could put the kabosh on it.
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Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed
Yanksfan replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Meteorologist Craig Allen says with the latest north trends he’s calling for 1-3 for NNJ and the city, with 3-6 for Central and Southern sections. -
You would think with a 500mb depiction like that I would end up with 2 feet of snow. Clown map says more like 2 inches!
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6z GFS takes the 2nd wave up the coast as a 963mb snow bomb. Another OP run another solution. It’s all about timing, spacing and a little luck. The type of pattern where we could cash in big time or end up empty handed. Right now I’m fairly confident with a solution somewhere in the middle.
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Everything is cyclical with the weather. I lived thru the ‘80’s. I thought it would never snow again.
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3” in Nutley township. Hopefully a good omen for this winter. Boy we need it.
