NutleyBlizzard

Currently under a flood warning here in Essex county, N.J. Absolutely pouring out there.

Hurricane Belle got me started.

Total of 45''. Nutley, NJ.

We most definitely have a shot at 50+. I'm currently at 45''. If my area didn't struggle with subsidence issues in March, I'd be going for 1995/96 levels by now.

Snowing moderately with 3''. Roads are snow covered too. Temp 32*.

2.5'' with moderate snow. Temp is down to 30*.

Here in Nutley snow starting to pick up in intensity a bit. Very breezy too. 36F.

Very light snow and winds starting to pick up. 36F. Waiting patiently for my beat down.

Euro's got the floor now. I'm hoping it comes north a bit to get the heavier snow axis it portrayed last night up to the NYC metro area.

Trough orientation was better. It argued for an even better solution then at 12z. Most likely a burp run. We'll see if the GEFS confirms my thoughts.

I thought the 6Z GFS was much improved if you look at the H5 levels. The latest NAM improved too. EURO/UKIE combo are tough to beat this close in. Would not be surprised if it comes in closer resulting in mixing issues for the city. Very dynamic setup indeed.

How much of a correction are we talking about with todays run? 50 miles?

I'm not sure. It could be that the NAM is just outside its range when this possible phase occurs. Could the NAM be correct with a close but no cigar solution? Sure but with the CMC and RGEM showing a bomb its definitely something we should closely monitor in future runs.

The NAM came pretty close to an epic run. The two waves came close to a phase but when it didn't occur the heights were dampened and OTS she went. If that lead wave were to slow down a bit more...BOOM!!!

I was just thinking the same thing. Also notice that the confluence is not as strong this run.