NutleyBlizzard

Potential Gloria redux in the making. Long way to go though.

You're right Anthony. The last couple of GFS runs came close to something much bigger. The trough was coming in faster/sharper but not quite enough to capture Dorian and ride it up the coast. It's all about strength and timing of the trough. While the kicker scenario remains the most likely scenario, a capture cannot be taken off the table at this point in time. We have several days before Dorian reaches NC, so up until then any small nuances in ridging and shortwaves could have major impacts good or bad for the mid Atlantic / northeast. Long way to go with this one folks.

That's all well and good, but in the end the NHC is misinforming the public which may very well cost lives.

Euro is a Carolina crusher!

Wow that's scary. Andrew redux.

That's a beauty of a pic. Looks like Dorian is about to go into RI mode.

We're way overdue for a -NAO regime for the winter. With it being so dominate this summer, I've got a good vibe that we finally cash in.

That's why last winter predictions busted so badly and is going to cause forecasting very challenging this winter.

Whatever the reason is it could be a good sign for us. Perhaps the core of the polar vortex will reside on our side of the globe come winter.

You can't catch a break with this rainy weather. Sorry to hear your trip to Wildwood was ruined. I'll be heading down there the day after Labor Day for a few days. Hopefully the weather will hold up.

Yep. We would need stout blocking in place to overcome that firehose. With the lack of any prolonged -NAO regime in recent winters, I'm not holding my breath. Edit... This is purely fantasy talk of course. Winter is still 4 months away!!!

I agree with August. With blocking returning any warm spells will be short lived. We'll see how everything unfolds. As far as next winter is concerned, if the -NAO regime continues to dominate it would be a game changer, since the last several winters have been void of any long term blocking. My fear is the pattern will flip back positive when December rolls around.

I'll be complaining when the pattern flips and the WAR rears its ugly head just in time for winter.

I agree. With the Changing climate, pre June 1st named storms could very well become the norm. I can envision seeing the NHC start the season on May1st in the not so distant future.

Most places were on the fence with this storm. I received 6.5'', but could of easily ended up with much less. That degree or two made all the difference.