NutleyBlizzard

My wife has been fighting depression for years. Medication and therapy has helped some. Still there are good and bad days. So sorry for your loss.

Let them have it. They deserve it. Our time will come soon enough. When all is said and done the majority of the area will be well above snowfall for the season. Patience.

12 out of 50 members now have big hits in SNE.

There's a lot of chatter in the NE thread about this storm ultimately coming further north due to the fact of models underestimating the northern stream with a weak ElNino being present.

GFS Para was on its way to a major hit until it reached the coast of Virginia and the run gets wonky. The center "jumps" offshore. Looks to me like it may be the low chasing convection. Despite that, it was a big improvement from the 0Z run.

GFS is clueless. Its run to run changes have been downright comical. Thank god this mess of a model will be taken out to pasture next month. I'm more inclined to follow the GFS Para. Only problem is its always painfully slow to come out on tidbits. Hopefully this issue will be fixed when it officially takes over.

I agree. There are many times where these big ticket events end up further north. 6z GFS was close to a big hit for us. Southern Jersey on southward gets dumped while we still get some decent snows up here.

After a long day I'm finally getting to unwind on my recliner. What's normally a 20 minute commute from my job took nearly 3 hours. I measured 6.5'' when I got home. Great storm.

Euro+Ukie combo is tough to beat especially this close to an event. We'll see if the Meso models tick colder at 18Z.

Good to hear from you Tom! Many members are eagerly awaiting your thoughts of this upcoming winter.

Even in the most severe winters there are going to be relaxation/reload periods. If not looking at the calendar per say, winter runs from Dec. 1st thru April 1st. That's a long period of time for sustained cold. No one should expect a wire to wire winter cause you're really reaching for the moon if you do.

Check out the daily ENSO numbers. There's a very good chance this Nino will achieve moderate status. That being said, DT going with a 200% call is bold. He normally likes to hedge a bit. With him being so gungho this time around gets my attention.

February we will have a crippling triple phased blizzard when a slow moving miller A coastal gets caught up by the polar vortex. Folks down in DC will see upwards of 2 feet. Further north towards Philly will have 2-3 foot amounts. Northern half of NJ-NYC metro 3 feet plus. SNE upwards of 4 feet.

So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish.

Perhaps it'll be a year where they come right up the coastline and DC to Boston gets crushed. Just like the good ol' days.