NutleyBlizzard

My main concern is with a trough over the eastern US along with an upcoming active hurricane season, that could very well spell trouble for the east coast.

Very frustrating indeed with the lousy timing. There's hope though that we could see this pattern come fall and winter with the QBO finally going negative.

Having a west based El Nino is a great feature to have, but on the other hand, too strong of an event we would torch. So my question is would a strong El Nino kill our winter no matter where its situated at?

To think I wasted a week of sleepless nights tracking this piece of crap. Epic bust!

Up to 6 inches. Moderate snow/sleet. This storm reminds me a lot of March '93 superstorm.

3.5'' snow/sleet mix.

Moderate snow here in Nutley. 3 inches thus far. Hoping to fend off that R/S line.

EPS are east of EURO OP.

Latest SREFS are amped up. Hope its a good sign of things to come with the 00z runs.

Barring a total collapse at 12z, we will see isolated jackpots of 30 inches or greater. Back in the blizzard of '96 I received 30 inches, while Elizabeth N.J. jackpot with 36!

GFS is in dire need of an upgrade. its a lower resolution model. It can more or less handle the run of the mill snowstorm, but when it comes to the big dogs its out of its league.

Juno comes to mind. The EURO and GFS kept chasing the heaviest convection out to the east which caused a much weaker western flank.

If models have indeed started to converge on a track like currently being depicted, your jackpot of 25 might be too low. There are other issues at play here. There is robust blocking up north. Does the storm slow down or even stalls out for a while? Second, once we get within the range of the higher resolution models, they may very well pick up on the true nature with this beast as far as the CCB is concerned. If this storm lives up to its full potential I can see someone ending up with 30+.

6z GFS finally decided to join the party and caves towards the EURO.

You got that right. Those 24 hr panels are very hard to decipher.