NutleyBlizzard

With the QBO reversal and solar minimum one would think a -NAO would be a dominating feature this winter. I'm at most cautiously optimistic because over the past several years it's been so damn elusive to develop during the heart of winter, only to show up come spring and taunt us.

Don't stress. Better to have this warm pattern now than say mid to late December. Besides other than the random nuisance snow events that could occur this time of the year, we really need everything to align perfectly for anything meaningful to happen. Bottomline once the cold air returns, we'll be in a much better place (climatologically speaking).

Looks like the temp anomaly of planet Tatooine.

GFS coming in colder/snowier for next week's event. Without looking at snow maps it looks like a good hit.

Whatever happened to the old fashioned winters when I was a kid? It would start to turn colder by mid November and more or less stay that way into March minus the week long thaw in January. Damn climate change.

In a way you are. Last winters bust was in large part of a decoupling of the pattern. In other words the pattern that was presented to us did not behave like it normally would in past analog years. That's a big red flag for me. Could it be the changing climate? Perhaps. Already there is confusion with the winter forecasts starting to come out. Some are calling for a front end winter, while others are going backloaded. All I know is we are starting to see more weather extremes occurring. What do I think is going to happen for our area this upcoming winter season? Who knows. To me any plausible scenario is on the table from a 1995/96 redux to an all out torch. At this point we should just wait another month and hope things become much clearer by then.

Models probably underestimated the strength of the block. If only this were January.

Interestinging development. If we put all other weather drivers aside like the NAO and PNA, what ENSO state is more favorable for a productive winter in our area Modoki or Neutral? Reason being I often hear Mets and amateurs alike vouch for each if you want a cold/stormy pattern.

It wouldn't shock me if the upcoming Enso model forecasts show a weak west based Nino. Whatever's the case as usual our winter will hinge on the strength and position of the western ridge and if the elusive Greenland block shows up.

Here I am looking for any posted tidbits for the upcoming winter and its 95 freaking degrees in Newark. Unreal.

Congrats to you and your future wife. It would be fitting if a blizzard occurs on your wedding day.

Potential Gloria redux in the making. Long way to go though.

You're right Anthony. The last couple of GFS runs came close to something much bigger. The trough was coming in faster/sharper but not quite enough to capture Dorian and ride it up the coast. It's all about strength and timing of the trough. While the kicker scenario remains the most likely scenario, a capture cannot be taken off the table at this point in time. We have several days before Dorian reaches NC, so up until then any small nuances in ridging and shortwaves could have major impacts good or bad for the mid Atlantic / northeast. Long way to go with this one folks.

That's all well and good, but in the end the NHC is misinforming the public which may very well cost lives.

Euro is a Carolina crusher!