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Fozz

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Everything posted by Fozz

  1. Fozz
    If something similar to the latest GFS solution plays out, I think we'd be lucky to see 2".
  2. Fozz
    Nice! I'd sign up for that right away.
  3. Fozz
    I'm expecting about 1-2" from this event, with probably more towards DC. Hopefully I'm too low, but it will seem tough to get a strong enough system to move into the ideal position for a significant event here.
  4. Fozz
    Actually no. The 5-8" is only to label the lavender color. Looks like they put DC on the line between 1-3" and 3-5". Seems reasonable to me.
  5. Fozz
    We both know 5 is not wsw in our counties:) I didn't know you moved to one of these counties. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).
  6. Fozz
    Winter Storm Warning A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period). https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Storm Warning
  7. Fozz
    It's 5" for shorter duration events (12 hrs or less), which tend to be most of our storms. But for longer duration, it's 7"+.
  8. Fozz
    That piece of energy crashing into California is a real problem. Steals energy from the storm and turns it into a string out mess.
  9. Fozz
    Mixed is a good sign of less chance for suppression Exactly what I was thinking. I don't think either of us have much to worry about, or really anyone N/W of the cities. Probably not in the cities either.
  10. Fozz
    Looks like it gives us snow showers through Monday afternoon. Would be very nice to see.
  11. Fozz
    Nice improvement from 12z. Keep it going!
  12. Fozz
    Very encouraging shift. Feeling much better about this now. Of course a moderate north bump would be nice, but I won't get too greedy on a storm that offers nice cold powder. 4-6" would be great.
  13. Fozz
    Yeah I'm no longer expecting more than maybe 2-3". But that's fine. We have a great pattern coming up with many more opportunities on the way. Most normal winters (including the better ones) don't have a MECS right off the bat after a pattern change.
  14. Fozz
    I did a Shapiro-Wilk test on the precip data through 2017, and it confirmed a normal distribution (or close enough to it). But with 2018 included, that was no longer the case.
  15. Fozz
    Not to mention October 2013...
  16. Fozz
    It wouldn't be the first time a shutdown was followed by a great winter.
  17. Fozz
    IIRC, the block in 09-10 was so strong that not only did the northeast miss out on a lot, northern New England was also pretty warm.
  18. Fozz
    Oh man.... looks almost like something from 9 years before that date.
  19. Fozz
    So either the south will steal our snow, or we'll see a few plowable events while New England gets multiple epic blizzards. Or if the weeklies are correct then we get our best year since 2013-14.
  20. Fozz
    FV3 GFS: psuhoffman gets fringed
  21. Fozz
    Probably the March snowstorm. But the big rain storms and the early March windstorm were also very impressive.
  22. Fozz
    Yes, it was a huge storm here. Widespread 12-18” totals around DC and Baltimore.
  23. Fozz
    I'll gladly take another January 2000.
  24. Fozz
    Well of course you do. But this is the mid-Atlantic forum, so all the discussions here will cater to what is best for this region.
  25. Fozz
    Its 90% rain tbh it makes no sense for it to be rain, especially with the 850mb temps being well below freezing in mid-January, and a 975 low off the coast.
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