Fozz

I wouldn’t call the January 05 storm a disaster.... a better word is disappointment. Still a decent storm with 6”, but the dry slot ended it much earlier than I hoped, not to mention Philly to Maine doing a whole lot better. I agree with the rest of your post though. When there’s a huge disparity between here and 40N, the mood gets nasty here.

Probably not what we want. Might squash any chance of a storm.

[annoying nerd] well technically it's a high end MECS [/nerd]

I used to feel that way, but since I have a ski pass this year, I'll take near misses since we still get cold and the northeast resorts will do well.

Yeah. Dec 5-6, 2003. Huge hit in the northern and western burbs.

Dec 1989 was probably a bit better in the southern mid-Atlantic. I know the South had several good storms that month. But as some others pointed out, front-loaded winters are inherently disappointing since they end so early. I think the one I remember most clearly is 2003-04. Started with a great December storm (especially in the colder burbs), had a very cold January and another good storm late that month, but then the rest of the season was a total shutout. I was very disappointed that February had no measurable snow at all, and of course March wasn't much better... I think it had a dusting at the most. Still a pretty good winter overall, but the premature end definitely left a bad taste in my mouth.

Just the other day in the SNE forum a few posters were arguing over whether 2015 was epic. That winter was pretty uneventful for them until late January, but we all know what happened after that. Getting multiple blizzards and a solid period of deep winter qualifies as epic in my book. If we were fortunate enough to end up with another Feb 2010 but colder and with a few more storms, I think you'd agree.

Yeah the only thing we're too late for is a wall to wall winter like 02-03 or 13-14. But those kinds of years are rare to begin with. We all know that a solid pattern starting late January can bring some great results during our peak climo.

Eric Horst from Millersville favors Feb 1 to March 15. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html

Yeah if it's just a control run then it's only one out of who knows how many ensemble members....

Honestly if that verifies then this whole wait is beyond worth it.

I'm guessing it's either a hideous snowhole over us, or an epic KU fest. EDIT: map wasn’t there when I first replied. That is incredible.

The glaze in Feb 07 was so slippery, I remember being able to slide on it as if I was skating. It was actually pretty dangerous, but then again I was 16.

It happened pretty suddenly in Jan 2007. Right on the 16th. BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, MD Daily Data For a Month January 2007 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 53 44 48.5 15.1 16 0 1.07 0.0 0 2 50 29 39.5 6.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 55 26 40.5 7.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 4 61 29 45.0 11.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 62 43 52.5 19.5 12 0 0.31 0.0 0 6 71 56 63.5 30.5 1 0 0.03 0.0 0 7 56 44 50.0 17.1 15 0 0.31 0.0 0 8 53 34 43.5 10.7 21 0 0.50 0.0 0 9 47 30 38.5 5.7 26 0 T T 0 10 37 24 30.5 -2.2 34 0 T T 0 11 42 20 31.0 -1.7 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 12 50 35 42.5 9.8 22 0 0.03 0.0 0 13 65 50 57.5 24.8 7 0 T 0.0 0 14 67 50 58.5 25.9 6 0 0.05 0.0 0 15 68 49 58.5 25.9 6 0 T 0.0 0 16 64 30 47.0 14.4 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 17 34 22 28.0 -4.6 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 18 35 18 26.5 -6.1 38 0 T 0.0 0 19 46 30 38.0 5.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 20 36 24 30.0 -2.7 35 0 T T 0 21 29 19 24.0 -8.7 41 0 0.15 0.9 1 22 33 27 30.0 -2.8 35 0 0.01 T 1 23 41 28 34.5 1.7 30 0 T T 0 24 42 29 35.5 2.6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 25 37 20 28.5 -4.4 36 0 T T 0 26 31 14 22.5 -10.5 42 0 0.00 0.0 0 27 54 20 37.0 4.0 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 28 45 28 36.5 3.4 28 0 0.02 T 0 29 31 20 25.5 -7.7 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 30 41 19 30.0 -3.3 35 0 T T 0 31 33 20 26.5 -6.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

I specifically remember the Pacific jet wrecking Jan 2006, but I'm less clear on Jan 2007. 05-06 mostly sucked... the Feb storm was great and it saved that winter from being a disaster, but I enjoyed 06-07 much better even though it had less snow, since we actually had a meaningful prolonged period of deep winter, including the V-day sleet storm. 06-07 could've been better if we had better luck, but the second half was still a lot of fun.

Sounds a lot like today.

Why was the first half of 2006-07 so awful? I remember it being an endless horrendous torch until maybe Jan 15-16th, but I don't remember all the details. I also felt nearly hopeless for some time. IIRC that was another borderline weak Nino.

We also had crappy winters from 07-09 and again from 11-13 and 16-17+ (depending on where you live). So in all likelihood we either get skunked this year, or get a nice turnaround and beat climo.

I wasn't even alive at the time, but this winter is starting to remind me of 1989-90. I'm sure many people here are familiar with it. January and February were atrocious based on all the data I've seen. Endless lukewarm torch after an amazing start, just like these past few and next few weeks.

I heard a lot of it from warm lovers back in 2014. "Ugh, I hate this trough, when will it go away??? I want spring and warmth!!!!"

Honestly if we torch this month with 60s and 70s, then I won't even mind a chilly March and April. Kinda like last year which had a chilly start to spring, but that was after many days of 70s in February, so I can live with it.

I'll take it if we only have to deal with one week of this crap before getting into a good pattern. Otherwise, I'm probably logging off for a little while.

They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated.

That's a heartbreak....look at 850 line lol All the way in NNE. For goodness sakes this is awful. Most winters this bad have weeks of 50s and 60s (like 01-02 or early 06-07), but instead we've just been lukewarm.

My brother just left for Cuba very early this morning. It would be hilarious if he ended up seeing snow there.