Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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I agree, which is why I ran the numbers using the entire period from 1871 to 2017. I'm not all that comfortable with a sample size of only 30 if I can do better.
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I'm not sure of their exact methods. I guess it would make sense to do that with their 30 year averages since the sample size isn't so big. I know they reduced the totals of Dec 2009 and Feb 2010 a few months after that winter, probably because of measurement issues or some other reason I can't clearly recall.
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I did a Python analysis on Baltimore's precip totals, just cause I felt like it, and it turns out that 2018 single-handedly wrecked the normal distribution. Precip totals are now skewed to the right. Sometimes one extreme outlier is all it takes. Baltimore's final total of 71.82" is over 4 standard deviations above the long-term pre-2018 average.
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I know this is kinda weenie of me to mention, but government shutdowns have usually been followed by good winters. Just sayin.
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A lot of these weenies would've been miserable in December 1995.
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Yeah I've noticed that too, and I don't really know why that happens. It's been an incredibly consistent pattern since at least January 2000. Jan 2014 was one of only a handful of exceptions, but for the most part it's just nickel and dime if we get anything.
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Jan 2, 2014 Didn't most of the region get 3-6" from that storm? It was one of the better Miller Bs that we've had..
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Temp shot up from 38 at 4pm to 58 at 11pm.
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Yup. If we assume a normal distribution of precip totals (which I haven't checked, but I'll probably plug it into Python when I get a chance), then that is the probability of getting a precip total that extreme on the high end (3.8σ to be exact). It's an incredible deviation from the average. And 120+ years is a decent sample size too, so I think it's at least pretty close to a normal distribution.
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You're right, but I was talking about only the wet tail of the curve since that's where we are at.
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It's fine to care about it, but you just need to have realistic expectations based on where you live. I think most of us are eager for a good winter with a few big storms, but December is no time to panic.
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I'm 28... I haven't experienced much of life either, but on the other hand I've been in this hobby since 2002. I've seen many stretches of shitty winters before, but if you're a little patient, then you'll really enjoy the payback when things turn around. However, nobody enjoys a wet blanket.
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I'll sometimes jokingly say "I hate you " to someone on the other side of the rain/snow line, but I never actually mean it. It's one thing to joke around or lightly troll someone, and I've seen some of that around here, but actually being hostile to someone because they're getting more snow is incredibly petty and immature.
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@Maestrobjwa If the lack of snow really drives you this crazy, I think it's a good idea to find a few other hobbies or things to do, so that your emotions aren't so dependent on the weather. Enjoy the snow when it comes, but if not, then focus on other things. If you really love winter weather that much, then it might be worth making a trip to Northern New England to explore their mountains. A flight to Manchester, NH or Portland, ME isn't that expensive from BWI.
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Yeah I think a lot of it comes with maturity, and I'm sorry about what happened in your life. Getting a few bad winters is nothing compared to those real life adversities. I was really bad about this stuff 10 years ago, and even as recently as 2015 I melted down a few times, but I've been in this hobby long enough to know what to expect. A lame December is nothing unusual.
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IMO, Jan 2016 was just as good as any of the storms in 2009-10, if not better. It was an amazing storm with perfect duration, good heavy rates and blizzard conditions during the day, and even a little thundersnow.
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Damn that's brutal. Lets's hope this year delivers at least one HECS for us.
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I've noticed over the years that women handle this hobby much better than men do.
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I just plugged in that standard deviation, and if it reaches 3.8σ (assuming a normal distribution), then this year's precip total would be a 1 in 13000 year anomaly.
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I’ll be back home on the 30th, so perfect timing for me.
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That’s an insane anomaly, especially if our precip totals are normally distributed or close to it.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
Fozz replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ouch, sorry that happened. I also watched it from inside for the most part. Around mid-morning on the 16th, I went out to try getting some logs for the fireplace (we lived in the woods back then) but then the snow was too heavy so I just stayed inside for the rest of the day and watched it pile up. It was an incredible sight. -
Honestly I think 12-16" of snow through the end of January would be pretty good. A lot of great winters had less than that. February is often our best month, so let's hope it gets even better by then.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
Fozz replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
How well do you remember PDII? That one was also huge, and it was the first HECS that I remember well (I was way too young in 1996). -
That might be the best looking block I've ever seen on an ensemble map.
