Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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0z NAM has slashed totals north of DC. Not sure how much it's worth, but not really what I wanted to see. Maybe 18z was too wet.
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I'd say Reisterstown and Cockeysville are in that in-between area. Not inside the Baltimore beltway, but not really near the M/D line either. But in this case, yeah we'd definitely like to see a last minute north jump.
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Probably a lot of watches too.
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The latest FV3 is warning criteria even up here.
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Probably a good guess.
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Honestly with a lot of these storms you are in the same boat as psuhoffman, such as this one, where it's looking drier north of Baltimore.
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That RGEM ensemble mean is worthy...
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Ensembles are better beyond 72 hours.
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Honestly what's even more impressive than the few high-end HECS runs is the huge number of pinks. From a quick glance it looks like they're in the majority, which really is remarkable.
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Quite possibly the next two months. We have an amazing pattern coming up, and the good thing is, after this coming week I'll have a lot more free time. I'm really looking forward to this.
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That's pretty incredible for a mean. I can only imagine what the high end ensemble members show. Does anyone remember what the weeklies showed in mid-late January 2010? I know for sure that I haven't seen this kind of optimism about long range patterns on the forums since 2009-10.
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At this point I think it's safe to throw out the wacky NAM run. Most guidance looks good for a nice 2-3" event, with maybe a bit more in VA and southern MD.
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Also, does the ICON "true SLR" algorithm have a track record of underdoing the ratios? Maybe it hasn't been around long enough for us to know for sure, but I'm honestly curious about that.
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That lolly north of Baltimore looks very tasty
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I'm skeptical of high ratios, even if we're cold, especially for those of us who end up with light rates and probably less snow growth. There was a similar event in mid-February 2015 (before the good one) in which the ratios underperformed due to the lack of snow growth.
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28 and windy. It’s been so mild lately that I’m not even used to this cold anymore. Feels nasty.
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I never really bought into the good GGEM run, nor even the good ensemble means. I think the dry, strung out solutions are more realistic. So this doesn't surprise me. We'll most likely have many more opportunities in the weeks to come.
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Doesn't look too terrible. I'll take 2" at this point.
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A KU is a major snowstorm that is big enough to be studied in depth by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini (KU stands for their last names). Usually a widespread 10"+ storm. So a "KU pattern" is the type of pattern that favors a major or historic snowstorm for our area. If the long range guidance is right, then we have a lot of fun times coming up.
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I went to College Park a little while ago, and even when it was under 25 degrees (1/30/2010), the snow was melting on contact on the sidewalks. Some spots really do have a terrible heat island.
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Right along the lines of what I'm thinking for the northern tier. 1-2" sounds like a good call. If the coastal gets going then southern areas will do better than what they're currently saying.
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I've made a few lolworthy typos in the past few years.
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Looks like a good event may set up for @usedtobe and @PrinceFrederickWx. Hope they enjoy this one.
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You're right, I don't know for sure, but most of the latest guidance does not favor my area for anything more than -SN from a fairly weak WAA. So my expectations are very low at this point.
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I don't think there's anything wrong in feeling a bit disappointed, especially for those of us getting under 2".
