Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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I recall several nice events in which I've seen 5-6" from an event that only had an advisory. With some luck, this one could also join that list.
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I know, which is why I said in the previous post that I don't really care that I'm not in one.
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Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually get the warning too.
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lol... I'm still not in a warning. But I don't even care. As Ron Paul would say, it's happening!
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I don't know when the snow was expected to start for the western crowd @clskinsfan @EastCoast NPZ, but from my experience, an early start is a great sign. Enjoy this one!
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It's fine. They are likely very busy, taking in a lot of info very quickly for a pretty tough forecast, working on a Saturday after many weeks without pay and no end in sight, all over a dumb political impasse. I think they're doing a great job considering the circumstances they're in.
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Hmmmm.... looks like they're hinting at expanding the warnings into Baltimore. Also it seems like barring a big north jump, @NorthArlington101 made the right move by driving to Charlottesville.
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My bar is 4". Hoping for at least a decent, high-end advisory event.
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That vort passage is a thing of beauty. Just perfect to crush our area. I don't care if it's 8" or 20", this right here is an awesome look.
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If this was 60+ hours away, I'd dismiss it immediately, but we're inside 36 hours and we have the NAM nuking most of us. I don't know what to make of this... it's one of the most stunning runs I've seen in ages.
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And it's not even finished. Still coming down. Maybe that 8" SREF mean in NE MD isn't as crazy as I thought. Or the NAM is just being the NAM. But still....
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Still coming down hard after sunset tomorrow evening, according to the NAM. I would've never expected a deform band like this a few days ago.
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NAM crushes Baltimore with heavy rates at noon tomorrow.
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Forgive me if I'm reading that wrong, but is this calling for 8.5" in Aberdeen? That sounds crazier than the NAM.
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Looks like a great event is unfolding for DC, southern MD, and VA. Enjoy this one you guys!
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I did a Shapiro-Wilk test on the precip data through 2017, and it confirmed a normal distribution (or close enough to it). But with 2018 included, that was no longer the case.
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I agree, which is why I ran the numbers using the entire period from 1871 to 2017. I'm not all that comfortable with a sample size of only 30 if I can do better.
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I'm not sure of their exact methods. I guess it would make sense to do that with their 30 year averages since the sample size isn't so big. I know they reduced the totals of Dec 2009 and Feb 2010 a few months after that winter, probably because of measurement issues or some other reason I can't clearly recall.
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I did a Python analysis on Baltimore's precip totals, just cause I felt like it, and it turns out that 2018 single-handedly wrecked the normal distribution. Precip totals are now skewed to the right. Sometimes one extreme outlier is all it takes. Baltimore's final total of 71.82" is over 4 standard deviations above the long-term pre-2018 average.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
Fozz replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ouch, sorry that happened. I also watched it from inside for the most part. Around mid-morning on the 16th, I went out to try getting some logs for the fireplace (we lived in the woods back then) but then the snow was too heavy so I just stayed inside for the rest of the day and watched it pile up. It was an incredible sight. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
Fozz replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
How well do you remember PDII? That one was also huge, and it was the first HECS that I remember well (I was way too young in 1996). -
I'm starting to wonder whether this March will end up colder than not only February, but also January and December. Some of the guidance is predicting some scary cold for the next few weeks, and since the actual met winter months have been so mild, I think we have a shot at March being colder than any of them, not just relative to normal but also in an absolute sense. I wonder how many times that has happened. Probably in 1960, but that sure isn't easy to achieve.
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I think we just need to remind ourselves (even though most of us already know it) that winters that are this bad, aren't the norm at all. Winters where the Carolinas to SE VA, as well as the cities north of 40N get big storms, while we get almost nothing, are NOT NORMAL. Otherwise, the whole "DC sucks" narrative gets out of control like it just before the last 3 good winters.
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2/10/10 Jan 2016 PDII December 2009 2/6/10
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6 years!!!
