Fozz

I was at Timberline yesterday, near Canaan Valley. Went from heavy snow via upslope to sunny and bitterly cold.

Yeah I think a WWA for 2-4”, and maybe 3-5” in the favored spots should work. No need to jump the gun on a warning IMO.

Did we just get NAM’d for an event 90% of us gave up on?

Probably their feast or famine stage. I think it's like psuhoffman and Terpeast said, the changing climate is probably shifting the Hadley cells and speeding up the NS with not as much digging south. That means more Miller Bs which favor 40N and less opportunity for us. But if that trend continues, then we'll probably see a lot more New England exclusive Miller Bs in the future. Even Philly got 45% more snow than BWI since 2010, which is also ridiculous. From the late 19th century to 2010, they averaged 3% more snow than BWI, and actually had many decades with less. Some of their recent disparity was certainly luck, especially 2013-14.

Since you mentioned NYC, I took a look at the data between Baltimore and NYC to see how much disparity there was each decade. Turns out, from the late 19th century to 1990, NYC averaged 25% more snow than Baltimore. The highest decade I found was 75% more for NYC (1940s), while the 1960s actually had slightly more snow in Baltimore. In the 90s and 00s (including 09-10), NYC averaged around 35% more than Baltimore. But since 2010, NYC averaged more than 2x the snow of Baltimore, which is completely unprecedented. It is very apparent just from the raw numbers that something has clearly changed. The NY and NNJ snow weenies should take this all as a cautionary tale, because the change isn't stopping any time soon and they aren't going to like where it may eventually take them.

The mineral pyrite (/ˈpaɪraɪt/ PY-ryte),[6] or iron pyrite, also known as fool's gold, is an iron sulfide with the chemical formula FeS2 (iron (II) disulfide). Pyrite is the most abundant sulfide mineral.[7] Pyrite cubic crystals on marl from Navajún, La Rioja, Spain (size: 95 by 78 millimetres [3.7 by 3.1 in], 512 grams [18.1 oz]; main crystal: 31 millimetres [1.2 in] on edge) Pyrite's metallic luster and pale brass-yellow hue give it a superficial resemblance to gold, hence the well-known nickname of fool's gold. The color has also led to the nicknames brass, brazzle, and brazil, primarily used to refer to pyrite found in coal.[8][9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrite

I used to wonder about that wide disparity between DC/Baltimore and NYC. Seems like that faster NS you mentioned due to the elephant, that was less willing to dig south probably had a big role in that disparity, and led to a lot of Miller Bs that buried New England and sometimes NYC, but screwed our area.

It seems like the 2016 super Nino was a major game changer in terms of climate and global temps. If you look at the data, it becomes apparent that these super Ninos tend to break new ground when it comes to global warming. Same thing happened after 1998.

In Deep Creek, right?

You might be slightly exaggerating. How much snow did you get in winter 2020-21? I remember it being a lot, and I doubt SC in the old climate would’ve gotten that.

It is days like today that convince me that dead ratter seasons are preferable to winters like this. The rug pulls are just so tiring.

Nice overrunning storm in the fantasy range.

I’m just thankful that all my formative years were in those good times. Especially 2003, 2010, 2014, 2016. I’ll never forget those winters, especially if we never get anything like them again.

Oops… I thought this was the panic thread. My bad. I’ll keep the climate talk there.

Between the lake cutter upslope and the Monday “event”, there’s a lot of perfectly timed opportunity for the long weekend.

It just hadn’t progressed as much yet. The 2016 super Nino changed everything.

Winter 2013-14, where it snowed just about every week, was only a decade ago. Feels like a lifetime now.

By then it’ll be time to move to Labrador.

This frame from the 12z Euro made me panic because I just know that in the old climate, this would've been snow for the cities in mid-January.

Which rainstorm this season with temps in the 30s had a “perfect track” (by 20th century standards)? I think this past weekend storm was probably too close to the coast, but a few decades ago I imagine it would’ve been 3-6” for the cities followed by a changeover, instead of nearly all rain.

It’s only ever easy for us in the rare historic years where IAD or BWI get 50+. But most of those years are Nino so they’re always the back of our mind

Last year was an atrocity here.

I think that was 2022. Incredible event though.

I see some nice upslope potential for MLK weekend in the mountains @nj2va

I was at Whitetail yesterday, where they ended up with around 6-8”. It was a rainstorm until I was close to Hagerstown, and afterwards it didn’t take long to change over to heavy snow. Fun times.