Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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That's a very long duration MECS at the 7-9 day range... a Thursday evening to Saturday morning event.
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You aren't the only one.
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It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms.
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I don’t usually like sleet but I had a lot of fun with it in Feb 07. It was so glossed up that you could just glide on the ground.
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As far as I know, the ICON reads every non-snow precip type as "rain". So what they depict as "rain" may very well be a wintry mix.
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Is Feb 2014 the only recent KU storm in which so many people have faulty memories? I don’t understand… we remember all the other big ones so well.
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It's already a lower resolution run, so calculating a Kuchera ratio is based on a level of detail and precision that doesn't make sense for ensembles. The point of the ensembles is to show the big picture, especially more than a few days away when things are too uncertain to rely on just the operational run.
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The GEFS mean is a composite of 30 different simulations. It would be very messy and not practical at all to try speculating on the exact ratio of the snow from an average of 30 different versions of a run.
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Famartin posted a bunch of those maps on his site. This one has the proper legend. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/NJSnow-03Mar94.png http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html
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I can't blame you. I think most of us consider a HECS to be anything over 20", but to get twice as much is just ungodly. Not many people outside a mountain or LES snow belt will ever see a 40" storm in their backyard.
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25 + 20 inches here. I can't imagine beating that stretch, ever.
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Yup, I've been going back and forth for a while but I moved back officially right after Christmas. Remote work can do that.
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Looks like he's in Columbia now.
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I liked Jebman's melt in 2015. That was amazing. Maybe a March 2001 rug pull is worth a similar rant. But not something like this. That is just petty.
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No. The OP is not a blend at all. The OP is the operational run that is run at a higher resolution. The ensembles are different variations of the run at lower resolutions, to depict different scenarios under various tweaked conditions. The ensemble mean is the blend of all ensembles.
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Probably because people feel that there's no going back to a further east track. I'd still give it until Thursday or Friday.
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Maybe, but I'm skeptical. More often than not I've seen the models overdo the scouring out of cold air. But this is a potent system with an overhead track as depicted so who knows?
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GFS has southern MD surface go from 20°F to 50 in the span of 18 hours. I find that a bit hard to believe.
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Honestly I'd also ignore the ICON if it was the only one that showed a big storm.
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That is one hell of a blizzard for SNE.
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I actually don't drink, but I'd be happy to meet up if I head out that way.
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The one thing those three storms had in common was the amazing rates and dynamics, including the widespread thundersnow. I remember seeing that flash of lightning at Millersville back in Feb 2014.
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I might also head to Deep Creek if this storm cuts too far west. I haven't been to Wisp in a while.
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I don't think you or I have much to worry with the snow being washed away. I don't see that happening. Sleet is in play, maybe also zr, but I don't think it will even be a major ice storm.
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Looks a lot like a March 1993 lite.
