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sarcean

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Everything posted by sarcean

  1. beautiful totals for here in the Triad...i would love for that to verify
  2. I'm in Greensboro but plan to go to Boone or Banner Elk Sat night if the Triad somehow busts. I'm confident I'll find a monster of a storm past a certain elevation.
  3. nope that is there expected this is there "high end map"
  4. I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already
  5. Real interested to how NAM-3K picks up precip types as it comes more into play
  6. hasn't ICON been on its own island these last few days?
  7. It's basically RAH vs every model at this point. They will have to cave if these models keep it up (atleast for the Triad) today or tomorrow or they risk it being too late too sound an alarm. I understand they don't want their torecacts to busts but I don't remember a winter storm ever getting this general model concensus for this many days straight
  8. RAH is still almost refusing to acknowledge the possibility of significant snow Wintry precipitation is still likely this weekend and confidence in said occurrence is high, however the exact timing, amounts and p-types are still uncertain due to continued model differences and thus low confidence. Best chances for wintry precipitation are still along and north of the US-1 corridor. Overview: A pair of upper level lows/troughs will develop on Saturday, one off the Southern Rockies/Desert Southwest and the other over the Northern High Plains/SW Canada. The former will shift eastward then east-northeastward through the ARKLATEX and into the TN Valley while the latter will dive south-southeastward, deepening over the Plains/Midwest. The southern stream low will become absorbed into the stronger northern stream low over the MS/TN Valley Monday/Monday night as it continues its southward dive toward the Gulf. Expect strong moisture advection into the Gulf Coast states and Southeast US ahead of the system Saturday and Sunday. Cold, high pressure will dominate at the surface over the Great Lakes region, ridging into western/central NC through the period in a CAD setup. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop along the Gulf Coast on Saturday in response to the upper level system. The surface low is expected to move along the Gulf Coast, through the panhandle of FL and northeast along the Carolina coast, while the wedge remains in place over northwestern portions of the area. As a result, there will be a very strong pressure gradient from west to east across NC on Sunday/Sunday night. Even the slightest shift in track, timing, temperature, etc. will result in significant impacts to the forecast. Timing: The latest medium-range models suggest precipitation will likely move into central NC very slowly from the south-southwest late Saturday or Saturday night. The ECMWF continues to be a tad slower than the GFS, though the timing has come into significantly better agreement from 24 hours ago. P-type: As mentioned above, a lot of uncertainty still remains with respect to wintry precipitation, as any small change/difference in timing, temperature, thermal profile, etc. will impact the p-type. As past events would suggest, a purely snow event is not likely as there is usually a mix of wintry p-types. Expect precipitation to start as rain across the far south and southwest, though chances are looking decent for a mix of rain/snow across the northwest half of central NC when precipitation moves in overnight. A mix of p-types, especially over the northwest half of central NC, is likely overnight as temperatures fall, while the southeast could remain rain for the duration. Expect several p-type changes throughout the event, especially along and north of US-1, with snow, sleet and freezing rain all possibilities. Regardless of p-type, liquid equivalents could range from one to two inches. Will hold of on getting too cute with any snow amounts at this time given the degree of uncertainty and how the varying p-types would impact accumulations. Temperatures: Highs on Sunday expected to top out in the low to mid 40s while Sunday will be much colder in the NW, with highs topping out around freezing while the SE should reach into mid 40s again. Lows both Saturday and Sunday nights will be similar, upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday night and low 30s to around 40 degrees Sundayb night. Monday highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s expected at this time. -KC Monday night through Wednesday: Medium range model guidance in general agreement depicting a deep upper level low traversing the SE U.S., initiating yet another deepening sfc wave just offshore of SC/southern NC. The string dynamics associated with the upper level low and the potential for the sfc wave to sling moisture back into central NC. The models have trended a little farther south with the system and attendant precipitation. Thus, expect a chance of rain or rain/snow mixed primarily focused across the southern counties Monday night. If the system drifts just a little farther north, could see a threat for snow across the northern counties with some light accumulation possible. Min temperatures generally in the 20s to the lower 30s. The upper level system and associated coastal low will sweep quickly eastward and offshore Tuesday with improving weather conditions into mid week. If there is any residual snow/ice pack across the Piedmont, could see temperatures Tuesday night drop into the teens. Away from the snow/ice pack, expect overnight lows in the 20s. Afternoon highs will remain well below normal with high temperatures in the 40s expected, closer to 50 across the far south southeast by mid week. -WSS
  9. Good chance i40 gets shut down at some point atleast from Asheville to Statesville
  10. History has told me there is nothing realistic about Greensboro getting 23" but would love to see it
  11. Greensboro just updated before they were calling for rain/sleet with only slight snow... Now Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow before 1pm, then rain. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night A chance of snow before 11pm, then snow and sleet likely between 11pm and 4am, then snow likely after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  12. Every model is saying RAH is being too conservative, this storm is REALLY going to catch some people by surprise. Guess they don't care about calling it safe since the event is on a weekend?
  13. when does the 3K NAM window come into play? isn't it suppose to be quite accurate sniffing our precip types
  14. I know there is a question of how far south and east the snow will get (and how cold it will be) but here in the triad (Greensboro) up to the high country in Boone have been in a great spot nearly every model run by every model . NWS is still calling it conservative with lots of mixed precip in the forecast
  15. I am just waiting for the rug to be pulled out from under this storm but model after model keeps showing the same (more or less). I can't recall this level of model consistently from this far out possibly ever.
  16. I would take that in a heart beat. Would be an incredible storm. I've lived in Greensboro since 2005 and never remember over 10 inches
  17. I would like to cash out and take this to the bank Hell I would be very happy with half that
  18. I guess i can live with a foot+in Greensboro but really hoping Boone / Banner Elk jackpots wifh 2 feet But really the size of that green area is absurd
  19. A few years ago I went up to Snowshoe, West Virginia for the 3 foot blizzard that also hit DC (was something to behold), plan on being in Boone/Banner Elk this weekend. Had never been in snow like that before, One of those things I will remember forever.
  20. Hard to think we are not on the brink of a potentially historic storm for atleast some of North Carolina
  21. I feel relatively confident in Greensboro that there will be enough cold and liquid to make something significant happen
  22. There is so much QPF that there doesn't need to be all snow to be a great storm. With nearly 2" of liquid...even if it is a 6:1 or 8:1 ratio for a decent portion of the event, it will still be significant.
  23. I plan on going to Banner Elk to Sugar Mountain...if I can make it! If these snow totals are even remotely close travel will be damn near impossible past Boone.
  24. Where can I see all the euro ensembles?
  25. Hoping it stays cold enough here in Greensboro / the Triad about 30 miles from the VA border for a mostly snow event
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