sarcean

WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED: 3:39 PM JAN. 13, 2022 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches over the northwest Piedmont, 4 to 6 inches along the I-85 corridor, 2 to 4 inches south of I-85, and ice accumulations of around three tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia and the western Piedmont and foothills of North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin Saturday evening and will gradually change over to a wintry mix across the region early Sunday morning, with mainly snow north of the I-85 corridor. A mix of all precipitation types is expected in the I-85 corridor. Freezing rain is most likely to affect the Lakelands and lower Piedmont of South Carolina, and the Charlotte metro area, on Sunday morning. Gusty winds may contribute to power outages. The precipitation should taper off Sunday afternoon and evening, perhaps as a period of light snow. Black ice could be a problem each morning early next week. Later guidance may affect precipitation types and amounts, and when a Warning would be issued. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

I know we will get some snow in Charlotte but sure looks like alot of sleet, freezing, rain, and ice will mix in with it. Then when those backside winds hit it will be lights out.

Bad run for the Charlotte area with all that ZR

WInston-Salem is part of the Piedmont Triad (Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem) and very much still central NC. Charlotte is not really WNC--its more of a south central NC. When I think of Western NC I think Anything including Hickory to the west (Asheville) and mainly the mountains. No one here in Charlotte thinks we are in western NC.

Got the Charlotte/CLT version to compare?

GSP Discussion: The latest guidance suite is starting to feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain. Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24 hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However, both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream. Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half. The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I-85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into Monday, further enhanching snow amounts there. We are still a bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the southeast part of the area. Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system before this wave arrives.

Charlotte would shut down for a week with that and I would love to see it

can you post CLT?

I actually saw snow 0x this year in Charlotte proper. Last year was the same. Funny how much difference a 30 minute drive can make.

Going to be more 35 degree rain for Charlotte it looks like

Models in agreement that there is lots of (relatively) cold rain coming

My older neighborhood in Charlotte is surrounded by massive pine with willow oak trees all around with atleast 20 50+ foot trees surrounding my property and backyard (with powerlines running through a line of trees) . A ice storm would absolutely devastate the area. All the established neighborhoods of Charlotte are very tree heavy. I remember the terrible ice storm years bac in 2014 when I lived in High Point NC that knocked out power for 4+ days to most of the city.

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I wouldn't be overly bullish about this. The chance of marginal temps making this a potential bust is pretty high.

Even half this storm would paralyze the south (ala Blizzard of 1993). Here in NC they atleast have plows but Georgia has almost none.

Get ready for the snowpocalypse

"In the contiguous U.S. the highest barometric reading is 1064 millibars which was measured at Miles City, Montana, on December 24, 1983" So not impossile but extremely unlikely

Beech got 5 inches so far

Already have lift tickets for Beech Mountain on Sunday. Really hoping for mostly all snow event at that elevation (4500+) as that sleet / frozen rain / ice is not fun. Drive up there will certainly be interesting as will hit different types of precip if these models verify.

Can i cash out now here in Charlotte

Looking at radar there is light snow just west and north of the lake so should eventually start snowing there soon. Too warm to really do much.

From what I have seen around the Charlotte area so far, my day is ruined and my disappointment is immeasurable.

I know it will be a heavy wet snow - what are the liquid to snowfall ratios expected?

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 pm: ***The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for Catawba-NC, Iredell-NC, and Davie-NC. A Winter Storm Warning will also be issued for Rowan-NC. A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for a tier of forecast zones south of the Warning.*** Latest WV imagery reveals upper cyclone centered over northern Miss., with strongly diffluent flow downstream over much of the Deep South and the TN Valley. As the short wave ridge currently centered over the forecast area shifts east, and the upper low continues to wobble east, forcing and moisture will increase rapidly across our forecast area this evening, with precip chances ramping up quickly across western areas through midnight. Surface ridge extending from surface anticyclone over Ontario will spill into the area through the period, resulting in increasing low level NE flow and gradually advecting lower wet bulb temp air into the forecast area. Having said that, wet bulb temps are already around freezing across much of the NC mtns, and those areas are poised to see primarily snow as precip develops this evening. (The Little TN Valley and adjacent valleys are warmer as usual, and will likely see almost as much RA as wintry precip). Locations east of the mountains will, as usual be more problematic, and will (also as usual) depend upon temperature trends in the lowest 1000` or so. While all locations east of the mtns will more than likely start out with rain, advection of the lower wet bulb air should support a transition to snow along and north of I-40, and in fact, precip should be more frozen than not in those areas. Closer to the I-85 corridor, things get a lot trickier. Guidance generally agrees that mostly rain will be seen closer to the NC/SC border. However, periods of stronger synoptic forcing will support high precip rates at times tonight (classic "cross-hair signature" indicated in model cross sections), and this may force periods of a mix with or transition to SN, although how much that would be able to accumulate is debatable. Another source of uncertainty is the potential for a narrow band of mixed precip, most likely sleet, but a brief period of FZRA can`t be ruled out, as the NAM has been consistent in developing a warm nose, albeit not a particularly strong one near the NC/SC border tonight. Since the NAM usually does a good job in capturing these features, even when other guidance does not, we continue to forecast a region of sleet from the GA/SC/ southern NC mtns into the Piedmont. Forecast accumulation is minimal, but this does create another pitfall for the snow accum forecast. Of greater concern for areas east of the mtns, and especially the Piedmont and I-77 corridor, will be the potential for mesoscale banding during the daylight hours Friday, as deformation zone matures in response to cyclone deepening off the coast. Convection-allowing models, especially those that are NAM-based and even the operational NAM itself depict potential for locally high precip rates, esp across the Piedmont from late morning into the afternoon, possibly resulting in quickly accumulating snowfall, even in areas outside the warning. Of course, predicting where exactly this will (or if it will) set up is akin to predicting where a cluster of thunderstorms will develop 24 hours in advance. Nevertheless, the potential exists for locally intense snowfall rates tomorrow, especially across the Piedmont. In terms of amounts: storm totals are forecast to range from 5 to 9 inches across the NC mtns, except more in the 1-3 inch range across the valleys of far southwest NC and over much of Rabun County GA. Four to six inches are expected across the northern NC foothills, where a developing stout easterly flow is expected to enhance precip rates tonight, while 2-4 inches are generally forecast for the northwest NC Piedmont. General 1-2 inch amounts are forecast in the Advisory areas detailed above, although the southern part of those zones may see little to no accum.