sarcean

What’s the chance of Charlotte getting some decent flakes?

Some wild parts to the Forecast Discussion out of Greenville: "Changes happen in earnest late Wednesday afternoon as the forcing moves up from the SW and after sunset as the main surge of moisture arrives. Precipitable water values are expected to rise above 1.5 inches east of the mtns, with some guidance showing all-time high values late Wednesday night/Thursday compared to the climatology at FFC and GSO. Even more impressive are the moisture and water vapor transport anomalies during that time period, which are greater than 3 standard deviations and represent max values in the climatology. Periods of heavy rain are likely from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the atmospheric river translates across the region accompanied by strong mid/upper level forcing. There is the potential for 3-5 inches of rain by the time this system exits our region early Friday morning, with even more in the S/SW upslope areas of the mtns. A Flood Watch seems like a foregone conclusion with the scenario presented in the model guidance. However, the main threat will not ramp up until Wednesday night and there remains some uncertainty about the extent of the flood potential, so we will hold off with issuance for the time being. The other problem with be the severe thunderstorm potential, the details of which continue to remain elusive as guidance shows run-to-run inconsistency with the amount of instability. Everyone agrees that shear will be outstanding, on the order of 50-60 kt in a deep layer on Thursday and Thursday evening as a 60-70kt low level jet surges NE out of the Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF have backed off with their depiction of sfc-based CAPE, with both barely registering 100-250 J/kg. Meanwhile, the latest NAM develops better than 500 J/kg to the south of a boundary running along I-85 late Thursday afternoon, but the 03Z SREF shows very low probability of getting the CAPE above that level. Thus, the amount of instability continues to be a limiting factor. Suffice to say, the best chance for severe storms will be along and south/east of I-85, but will the mode be a QLCS with wind damage and isolated tornadoes, or will it be a large band of heavy rain with embedded tornadic supercells? The cold front should cross the region late Thursday and early Friday, bringing an end to the flood/severe threats. Moisture wrapping around a frontal wave will keep precip chances along the TN border into at least Friday morning, while colder air moves in from the NW. Precip will change to snow showers in the upslope areas along the TN border, with some potential for a minor snow accumulation at high elevations. This activity should wind down by sunset on Friday."

we had a good 10-15 minutes of a nice heavy snow shower in Uptown Charlotte. Hope that is not in for the winter...

Fresh in my mind is Greensboro receiving officially over a foot (which was really 15"+ in many areas) in a snowstorm last season with Winston 14.5". Sure the rest of the winter was mostly quiet but it was the third snowiest day in Greensboro history. Lets not act like central NC hasn't gotten anything in a while.

What a mess of a forecast here in Greensboro Saturday A slight chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with sleet after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. High near 34. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Night A chance of rain before 10pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 10pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Raleigh is normally quite conservative to call for snow so I think its big they are so bullish on this storm so far

Have to feel pretty good in Greensboro when the official NWS forecast is: Saturday A chance of snow after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

isn't it about time to make a thread for it

Hard to measure but has to be over 10 in Boone so far and still dumping

Driving in Boone is a little sketchy right now 4 to 5 inches of wet heavy snow on the road

Snowing pretty good in Boone

Would of been happy with the totals in Greensboro but driving to Boone right now to a cabin. Looks like I'll hit jackpot there. The question is when I'll be able to get back to Greensboro....Wilkesboro and Winston Salem in between look like they will get slammed too

Crap I'm headed up to Boone shortly. I need to get on the road if it's already in Asheville!

RAH Southern stream shortwave over the Lower MS Valley Saturday evening will eject east-northeast across the Southeast US through Sunday night. At the surface, attendant sfc low traversing the Gulf Coast States on Saturday will re-organize off the SE coast Sunday and Sunday night before moving out to sea on Monday. Preceded by a strong cold Arctic high that will build into the area from the north Saturday and Saturday night, there is still high confidence that a significant winter weather event will unfold across central NC late Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for some lingering light precipitation Sunday night as the next shortwave trough approaches the area from the west. Forecast confidence in snow amounts are highest along and north of the I-85, including the Triad, where the strong CAD High to our north and associated diabatic cooling will keep the low-level cold air locked in place and where the warm nose will be less prominent. So after a potential brief mix at onset Saturday night, the predominate p-type will be mostly snow through late Sunday afternoon and evening, transitioning to a light freezing rain/drizzle, once we loss saturation aloft and lift/forcing begins to weaken. Have kept snowfall amounts in the 8 to 12 inches range, with the bulk of this falling between 4 am to pm Sunday. An additional 0.10" of ice from light freezing rain/drizzle on top of the snow is possible. Given, this is the area where confidence is highest, will upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning across the far NW Piedmont counties, including Person County. Just east of this heavy snow area(south and east of I-85) and west of Interstate 95, given the potential for the warm nose aloft to support multiple p-types throughout much of the event, forecast confidence in snow amounts are much lower in this area, which would greatly cut-back on snow accumulation. However, the latest 12 km NAM has trended colder both in the low-levels and aloft across the central/northern Piedmont, as well into the northern coastal Plain. Given the colder thermal profiles, snow and sleet could now linger into afternoon/early evening, before changing over to freezing rain/drizzle with loss of saturation and lift aloft Sunday evening/night. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch east to include areas west of I-95. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, with expectations of a sharp cut-off along the eastern edge of these area. IF the warm air aloft is indeed stronger than advertised, the impacts across this area will still be great, with the potential for ice accumulations from freezing rain of 0.10-0.20" possible. Finally, for areas east of I-95 and across the far se counties, rain Saturday night/Sunday morning could briefly mix with sleet and freezing rain before changing over to rain. At this time, snow and ice amounts are expected to be light. As such, will be omitted from the watch. Temperatures: Lows Saturday night in the upper 20s NW to mid 30s, with only a 2 to 3 degree recovery expected on Sunday. Lows Sunday night very similar to Saturday night. Thus any snow and ice on roads and surfaces will linger through Monday.

at this point I would trust the NAM-3k on precip type!

Greensboro is only like 50-60 miles from you and I believe we are getting a ton. I'm sure you will be fine!

Well it takes over for the GFS in less than a month and the formulas could still be tweaked (still in beta) but here is hoping it's accurate

and the high end map

wow RAH call map

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Significant accumulations of snow combined with sleet and freezing rain is expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches combined with ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are possible. The greatest snow amounts are likely to be in the Triad, where amounts could approach 10 inches.

Near Boone (KTNB) is 17.4" with a QPF of 1.91"

Wonder if we will see a Blizzard warning at some point for the mountains of NC if those winds hold true

Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh. But we will see!