StoneColdWeatherAustin

Looking at the 18z long range HRRR, I see the triad starting to get into the mix around 3am or so. I see 6 hours of steady precipitation followed by approximately 9ish hours of very scattered precipitation. Is this a moot point ? Or could it mean that the majority of the precip is going to be in the first 6 hours (in the triad area) and also mean that those first 6 hours could be heavy precip to line up with the forecasted QPF ?

32.0 in Advance. DP at 30.7. Light rain. Deck steps were getting slick. Weird thing is about 4 hours earlier the temp read 31.4 and there was standing water on the deck and front metal railing. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

They have been showing up for three weeks. Not sure that really means anything, as I have seen them in January and February in cold winters and warm winters. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

It appears the low is further east in the HRRR. I believe that would keep the upper levels lower for the NW piedmont and may stay as all sleet and snow with no changeover to rain on the backend. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Tim Buckley was asked on social media why the models have seemed to be more inaccurate this year. His response was interesting and I was unaware of this "Well, winter fake outs are nothing new - but the more you pay attention the more you get disappointed. A real issue this year though is that there are many fewer airplanes in the air due to COVID. Weather data from planes goes into feeding computer models with important observations, so their predictions have been more chaotic and less accurate than usual." Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Weatherbug gave up trying to figure out what it's gonna do. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

FWIW....Sref mean is .086 QPF and .28 snow at GSO for the Thursday event. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Walked out and found frozen steps leading up to the deck and a light white coating from a patch of flurries earlier in Advance, NC. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Anyone reporting from Danbury ? Seeing some pretty heavy radar returns from that area.

Light snow in downtown Winston-Salem Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Comparing current radar returns at 11pm versus the 0z 3k nam at same time looks pretty darn close to the same. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

40/32 Advance, NC Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Is it just me or is anyone else not getting updated SREF Plumes since this afternoon ?

40.5/24.3. Advance, NC 33.26 wet bulb Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

40.3/28.7 - Advance, NC

Advance, NC 45/28 Clearing Skies

From what I can recall, those normally come out in the afternoon packages. Around 3-4pm today.

Snow breaking out in western NC at 10am.

I am just glad that Tim Buckley was man enough to go all in yesterday. Maybe that will help us not have a grocery store/gas station apocalypse the day that the snow is falling.

SREF Plumes doubled again. Up to 2.05 in GSO. On a side note, Tim Buckley said forget all you other peeps....I'm going all in ! First call 2-4" in the triad and mentioned that it could be higher.

Yes, Indeed. Doubled for GSO.

SREF mean for snow in GSO has moved today from .11 to .21 to .55

That image almost looks like a traditional CAD signal. Has anything changed with the HP up north that could cause that? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Moderate sleet with a few big snow flakes mixing in. Advance, NC Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Radar seems to indicate a very over performing storm comparing it to the 15z HRRR. Radar is absolutely blowing up in the MS and TN Valley's. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk