StoneColdWeatherAustin

16Z HRRR shows snow breaking out around Winston area at 7pm and shows it still snowing at 5am tomorrow. Most of it looks light to moderate. Depending on how much is lost to virga, it could be a moderate event, according to this model.

With the current GFS look, the precipitation outputs look meek. I would expect much more liquid if it plays out like that.

Yep, Ron White has a nice saying for those folks. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Every year I see posts from meteorologists irate over these 7 day model snow outputs that people post. Not sure why they waste their breath. There is so much misinformation posted on social media every day, and honestly I am not sure if it makes a difference with snow. People in the south lose their mind over snow whether it is an inch or a foot. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

I have noticed another trend. If all models are showing nothing, but then all correct to a solution where we all get snow, several people on here get really happy and do not start cursing at the models for being wrong to begin with.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the latest models were not showing the low making it to the gulf, but instead around northern LA/MS and then jetting East to SC and then North. Wouldn't the fact that it made it to the gulf cause some pretty different scenarios for a lot of locations? Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Hang on, I've got to go purchase another coffee maker. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

I have lived in the Winston area a long time and cannot remember getting a lot of ZR from a setup like this. Now sleet, yes. If anything, I believe you would stand a better chance at losing it due to the wind. I do remember a handful of storms over the years that started as an initial thump of snow and ending as sleet with just enough freezing drizzle mixed in to setup some epic sledding. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

I am not sure there is a real correct answer. Although the triad is considered central as a whole, places like Winston are very close to the mountains and obviously the furthermost western part of the triad. You also cannot draw a vertical line, as I know when people on the board speak of western NC, they are not speaking of CLT, especially south CLT. I do believe that when most people on here speak of western NC, they are including Winston and possibly even GSO. Once you get past Guilford though, I very much consider that central.

I have not seen any posts from the original QueenCityWX which I believe changed to BullCityWX once he moved to Durham. Did he move again ? Always enjoyed his input.

On the GFS control/mean graph, am I reading it correctly that it shows another storm about a week later ?

I am in Davie County and we cashed in on a couple inches from the 1/3 storm. Soil temps were pretty high (50s to 60s I believe) prior to that storm. It was sunny for a few days after that and it amazed me that 2 days later, I still saw shady spots of grass that were still holding snow. I assume that the snow sitting on the ground must really kick the soil temps down pretty quick.

From what I have been able to gather is that it is a clipper type system in the fact that it is coming from the northwest instead of the pacific, however could turn into a Miller A as it appears to dive south enough to interact with the Gulf of Mexico.

When past analogs are used to compare this storm, were those analogs also clipper type systems ?

37.6/26.5 in Advance Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Looking at the 18z long range HRRR, I see the triad starting to get into the mix around 3am or so. I see 6 hours of steady precipitation followed by approximately 9ish hours of very scattered precipitation. Is this a moot point ? Or could it mean that the majority of the precip is going to be in the first 6 hours (in the triad area) and also mean that those first 6 hours could be heavy precip to line up with the forecasted QPF ?

32.0 in Advance. DP at 30.7. Light rain. Deck steps were getting slick. Weird thing is about 4 hours earlier the temp read 31.4 and there was standing water on the deck and front metal railing. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

They have been showing up for three weeks. Not sure that really means anything, as I have seen them in January and February in cold winters and warm winters. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

It appears the low is further east in the HRRR. I believe that would keep the upper levels lower for the NW piedmont and may stay as all sleet and snow with no changeover to rain on the backend. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Tim Buckley was asked on social media why the models have seemed to be more inaccurate this year. His response was interesting and I was unaware of this "Well, winter fake outs are nothing new - but the more you pay attention the more you get disappointed. A real issue this year though is that there are many fewer airplanes in the air due to COVID. Weather data from planes goes into feeding computer models with important observations, so their predictions have been more chaotic and less accurate than usual." Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Weatherbug gave up trying to figure out what it's gonna do. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

FWIW....Sref mean is .086 QPF and .28 snow at GSO for the Thursday event. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Walked out and found frozen steps leading up to the deck and a light white coating from a patch of flurries earlier in Advance, NC. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

Anyone reporting from Danbury ? Seeing some pretty heavy radar returns from that area.

Light snow in downtown Winston-Salem Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk