Nibor
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Everything posted by Nibor
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
Nibor replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Snowing pretty good here. Dusting on most surfaces. -
it's all I have at this point...
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Personally, I need the euro at 6z onboard with the NAM solution to take it seriously.
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I think we may have hit the western wall.
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6z GFS at h5 is pretty much the same as 00z.
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6z GFS has a double barrel low.
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The one positive to take from the 6z RGEM is it got rid of the double barrel low.
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Yeah the NAM being right would be insane but nothing else is as far west or aggressive so it's an outlier.
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The nam is the furthest west. It needs support if it's going to be taken seriously.
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6z RGEM is slightly east. Later closing off of the 500 mb low.
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Cut these totals in half if you want to be realistic.
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Slightly earlier closed low. The trend continues...
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Jan 2016 they slowly increased their totals. If they need to they'll do the same here.
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lol On the NAM the dual max is back to the Jersey Shore and SE Mass. We've come full circle from the Euro runs back on Tuesday .
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Again, the NAM is BEST case scenario. It's still the NAM but the overall trend continues with the 500 mb evolution.
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The heavy band that has been centered over Long Island shifted west to over NYC.
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That slightly earlier closed low at 500 mb on the NAM making all the difference on the surface maps. "Tucked" and loops to the east of NJ. This is the best case scenario for folks west of NYC.
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Looks like the 00z euro closed off a bit earlier from 18z
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surprisedpikachu.jpg
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Yes we'll have to see but Trenton might be far enough away to not be burdened by dendrite destroying wind.
