27596WXNUT

85 special. Anything below 85 will be looking at rain and maybe token flakes.

Let’s face it. After a long wait the triangle finally gets to see a few inches. Close to 4” here just east of Youngsville. After waiting all day I’ll take it.

I was encouraged my Fish’s post. He’s been around this area for years. Longer than pretty much any other met. And now he can shoot straight since the WRAL chains are off. I think we could pick a few inches really quick this evening and tonight but we will see.

From the Fish for you guys in the triangle. Greg Fishel post: Winter Storm Update 3:30pm Sat Jan 31 Sponsored by Blanton’s Air, Plumbing & Electric The following is an example of what you will get if you subscribe to my Patreon channel. It's much more in depth and I create videos, complete with graphics and statistics Monday through Friday, and over the weekend if conditions warrant. To check it out, go to https://patreon.com/fishweather. Now, here is what I just posted on my Patreon channel: I am not shocked about the lack of snow so far in the Triangle. I believe I stated several times that to me, the most favorable time for heavy hitting was late Saturday afternoon into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Now, if it looks like this at 9pm tonight, I'll be genuinely concerned! As the storm offshore begins to rapidly intensify, the flow surrounding it will strengthen as well, and we will get into what we call a pattern of strong warm advection. Now snow lovers, don't fret. in this case "warm" is a relative term! But the process of warm advection is a contributor to upward motion and I expect that to maximize here in the coming hours. Thus, I am not giving up on my 4-7" prediction. And remember, 4-7 means 4 to 7, not 7! Now I want to be brutally honest with you because I saw someone giving me credit I didn't entirely deserve. It is true that midweek, I called into question the outrageous snow totals the American model was spitting out, as much as 18" at one point. So I was right about that. But I did backtrack slightly when I conceded that 4-7" of snow was possible, especially with the unusually high solid to liquid ratios. So if we get less than 4", I will have to confess that I went too high. There are many models out there right now telling me I'm wrong. Time will tell. As I said earlier, I'm looking at processes, not a computer program spitting out numbers. I didn't need to suffer through 4 years of calculus at Penn State to read numbers to people. I just wish all the clickbaiters out there that showed the outrageous snow totals earlier in the week would have the guts to admit they overdid it. Not holding my breath on that one. So that's really about it. It's a wait and see game from now until 1-2am Sunday morning. I'm doing the best I can with what I know and my over 46 years of experience. I'm not perfect but I promise you if I'm wrong, it won't be due to lack of effort.

Emerald Isle?

Same at the Wake/Franklin line. Very hard to think we will get much. I saw @PackGrad05 say don’t lose hope may come on later for Wake. Hope that means northern Wake too.

Virga. Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar …. Scratch that just started snowing.

Decent flakes here in Wendell for the last 30. Liking those returns moving up from south of here.

This is banter but I’ve been saying that for 5 years. People are more motivated by likes and clicks. Not by being factual or correct

Brick we are in a good spot. SE Franklin County here right at the Wake line. I’d venture to say 3-5” here. If the next run holds consistent I’d say 6”.

Going to be a fun week. Fixed that for you.

Looks like cold chasing moisture. Never pans out I’m playing reverse psychology here.

Snow with light sleet mixed in here after a bit of sleet to begin 3 miles east of Youngsville, NC.(Southeast Franklin County) Deck dusted. Weather friend neigbor 2 houses over weather station says 32°. Short range models seem to have us on the higher side of the tight gradient.

Depends on the winds. I’ve seen lake effect off of Kerr Lake/Buggs Island on the NC VA border.

Interesting thought by Eric