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stadiumwave

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Everything posted by stadiumwave

  1. stadiumwave
    1870's is the benchmark. Probably the strongest El Nino going back to 1850.
  2. stadiumwave
    1982-83, 97-98, 2015-16 had 2.0+ ONI from August to February. He's not expecting that.
  3. stadiumwave
    Neither of those years were after a triple La Nina.
  4. stadiumwave
    Paul means historical in the sense of where we came from, a triple La Nina. He says the turn around from LA Nina to a strong El Nino of this magnitude in the same year is unheard since 1870's. Paul does not expect an El Nino of the magnitude of 2015-16 but does expect ONI to top 2.0 for one period either NDJ or DJF.
  5. stadiumwave
  6. stadiumwave
  7. stadiumwave
    They all have strengths & weaknesses. Personally, Iike: Euro, UKMET, JMA, & CanSips. Blend the 4 in Nov & roll with it. I'm 100% not a fam of the CFS. It's eradic. It's monthly forecast is sometimes good.
  8. stadiumwave
    UKMET Updated: DJF, 500mb JFM, 500mb DJF, ENSO:
  9. stadiumwave
    UKMET updated, really nice DEC-MAR DJF: JFM DJF: ENSO
  10. stadiumwave
  11. stadiumwave
    Paul was asked that question & responded:
  12. stadiumwave
    Probably not...like I said for interest & fun. But his MJO tools are really good in a shorter term.
  13. stadiumwave
    I'll throw this out there, just for interest & fun. Paul Roundy's MJO tools showing a big -EPO in early DEC: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
  14. stadiumwave
    EURO Seasonal Updated DEC JAN FEB
  15. stadiumwave
    Like to hear Paul kind of in line with some others. Thanks
  16. stadiumwave
    Did he mention any thoughts on what he thought winter would hold?
  17. stadiumwave
    Paul is an absolute giant of an expert. His peer-reviwed paper on this is in 2nd tweet:
  18. stadiumwave
    Here are the CanSip ensemble member 2m Temps from the update I posted yesterday: DEC JAN FEB
  19. stadiumwave
    CFS has AO going negative for entire month which is most of the time a good indicator of PV staying relatively weak. Now, there could be major decoupling & that not be true.
  20. stadiumwave
    No seasonal model has much skill outside of a month. So the take away is more a take away of themes & trends rather than specifics.
  21. stadiumwave
    CanSips Updated: DEC JAN FEB
  22. stadiumwave
    Surprise, surprise! Typical climo NOAA outlook, yawn. However, not all that dissimilar to the latest IRI.
  23. stadiumwave
    IRI Updated TEMP Probabilities Link: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
  24. stadiumwave
  25. stadiumwave
    It's just guidance. Not a forecast for sure.
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