jjwxman

The 12z GFS is cooking up something massive for Christmas week.  

7 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

First thing that stuck out to me. Massive trend southward with that system over the last 3-4 runs. 

I agree @SnowDawg. For reference here's Monday's 00z run and Tuesday's 00z run of the Euro for the same time frame.  

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Trends on BAM seem to be more ice into S.C. and NE GA

If the CAD can lock down, it would make sense because the precipitation would arrive earlier. 

The 00z NAM serves up a Foothills special.  If icing is to occur, west of I-77 seems the most plausible outcome. 

The NAM has not been as quick to move the HP out like the GFS.  At hour 84 the NAM has the HP centered over Mass. while the GFS has the HP already over Nova Scotia.  I tend to agree with @griteater . If anyone gets anything frozen it will be the result of impeccable timing.  

43 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

84hr NAM appears to be setting up a crippling ice storm. 

Be careful... it's really easy to be NAM'd!!  Lol   But yes, that's something to keep an eye on. Looking at the 12z NAM run, the Dew Points Thursday evening are in the mid to upper teens in NC and the Upstate of SC.  For comparison the GFS on the 6z run had dew points in the upper 20's, low 30's Thursday evening.  The 12z NAM is actually colder dew point wise than the 00z CMC at the same time frame.   

I deem this not safe for social media. 

Taken verbatim, 00z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm in NC along the HWY 1 and I-95 Corridor. Some measurable snow falls in the Triangle and Triad.  Temps are very marginal, so melting/run off would likely cut into all amounts shown. 

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Next!!! Trending worse and worse, if you want to see frozen precip 

00z GFS is barely hanging on.... for NC folks. It’s a very quick mover. We’re approaching 5 days out. We got to get some agreement from the remaining globals before I bite. @mackerel_sky not ready to pass just yet... but you’re right... the trend is your friend. 

Wow... Now that's a text book CAD set up.  

This is definitely intriguing. Particularly since the global models tend to underestimate the CAD at times.  This has the makings of a sneaky little system.   

With this technically being the first Winter for the new GFS... I’m anticipating whiplash all season long.  Lol

LOL at the long range 6z GFS.  Basically the entire east coast will be shut down after that one.  

36 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if  that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast....

The NAM 3km overdoes the intensity with Hurricanes, we all know that... but it has a pretty good record on the tracks of Low Pressure systems.  With that being said, it has been consistently showing a more westward track. The center is actually west of Wilmington on the 12z run when it comes on shore. That would definitely increase the impacts to all of Eastern NC especially since the stronger winds are east of the center. The OBX would get spanked on this track.   

38 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

6Z Euro back to just offshore its moves more than the other models, the Ukie, Icon, Nam's all agree with the 00Z Euro track...that's the one that will be the worst for NC so we will see if they trend east today any...

Interesting, the 6z GFS Ensemble had a quite significant shift west and has a landfall across most of extreme eastern NC now.  

2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Wow that 00Z Euro run was nasty for NC....direct landfall over Emerald Isle as a solid Cat 2.

The 00z ENS also shifted closer to the coast. Image courtesy of weathernerds.org.  (free site btw)

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Euro misses FL altogether LOL.

...And now has a 956mb Major Hurricane off the SC Coastline... I hope the Carolina's haven't let their guards down!  

12z Euro stalls Dorian just off the FL coast for at least 24 hours at hour 96.  Then the trough picks Dorian up almost due north.  

Dorian is now a Major Cat 3 Hurricane per the 2pm Intermediate Advisory from the NHC. 

Dorian is now a Cat 2 hurricane. 976.4 mb 95 knots (109 mph... 105 mph officially) Here’s the raw data: 

It’s not often you get to watch a strengthening Hurricane on radar. Dorian is looking healthy tonight. 

Current Surface Cape and Satellite imagery. Lots of breaks in there and that’s very concerning. I believe if the the CAPE can climb to 2000-2500 tornadoes will become a bigger threat. The sun is peaking through in the Piedmont of NC. 

It’s going to be a busy day across NC/SC. (And VA)  

Just now, LithiaWx said:

QLCS weakened considerably over the last few hours.  What came through here was eventful but not much to write about.  Better luck to you guys in SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas if you like severe.  It was a super under-performer in the slight risk area.  

The Carolinas will likely get some help from the trough tilting negative on Friday. The dynamics are just sick over central/Eastern NC by 2pm.

Everything about the HRRR for the last several runs has been just nasty for the Carolinas on Friday.  If the HRRR verifies, I can easily see the SPC go moderate for wind damage.