jjwxman

1 minute ago, griteater said:

WPC's morning update

It doesn't get more textbook than that. What a Beaut!

This is incredible, just the shear amount of QPF makes the Wintry part of this storm system very unique for this area.  

Weathernerds.org has a better snowfall map than TT IMO. It still hammers the NW Piedmont, Foothills, and Mountains.  Some 30-36" totals in the mountains. Crazy. The Triad areas transition to rain but not before 1.75 if QPF as all snow falls. Damage done.

One thing to keep in mind is with the saturated ground and many trees that have been weakened by Michael and Florence, and many still have foliage, then you add heavy wet snow or ice, we are going to have a lot of power outages from falling trees. 

10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

yep, much better:

 

At hour 150 there's a good 6-8" along and north of the I-40 corridor from GSO to HKY.

7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

This matches up almost exactly like the snowfall output maps we're seeing from the GFS and Euro right now. This map doesn't bring the lower DP s into the upstate or SC, and the snowfall maps (op clown maps, not ensemble means) are almost an exact match, with any real accums stopping at the boarder. Remember, in the SE (especially outside elevation) cold is ALWAYS the first consideration. Needs these dews in the teens to come further south and west for any real chance for most.

Like this?  12z NAM:

11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm thinking the CAD is being extremely under modeled at this point.  Most of the globals have our high in near perfect position.  I think we will see the Hi-Res models paint a different picture with regards to sleet/freezing rain once they get in range.

As a general rule, you can normally shave 4 or 5 degrees off whatever the GFS is showing in this time range in a CAD setup. If you do that for this storm it's a devastating ice storm all the way down to Lookouts house.  The GFS is already showing some ice to that point as it is.

 

I agree 100%.  The dewpoint on the NAM at 84 is 10-20 degrees cooler than the GFS.  Now we all know the NAM past 48 hours can be a crap shoot, but these numbers are probably not all that off.

5 minutes ago, ajr said:

That's what I remember as well (in particular to Jan 2017 also)

The HRRR also nailed the warm nose in that Jan 2017 system. 

O M G...  And here comes another LP at hour 156. These totals are going to be unbelievable... literally. 

2 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said:

This is from Virginia Weather Network on Facebook.

Wow, almost a carbon copy of the GEFS mean. Incredible really.

Does anyone have the 12z EPS mean snowfall they can share? Or what does it show for the NW Piedmont of NC? Thanks.

12z EPS: You really can't ask for much more than this at this stage in the game. Roll on!

12z GEFS snowfall mean. 

In RAH’s video update put out around 12:30pm on YouTube they told folks not to change their weekend plans, just keep aware of latest forecasts. 

2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Sweet Jesus. 

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Banana high?? Can we believe this model!??

It's the NEW GFS! What could go wrong?? 

The FV3 is all love for a good portion of NC and Southern VA.  

The 12z GFS is about to start it's run on TT.  Let's see what kind of craziness the the 12z suite will us bring today. 

FWIW the 6z GEFS had several members jump north, although the mean still looks further south. 

4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Did notice the EPS and GEFS back off on the cold temps a bit last night.  EPS snow mean backed way off.  Clown maps are nice, but I'd like to see this thing stay south and trend colder as we get closer. 

I did take note of that.  There were only two or three EPS members that had a somewhat close 00z OP outcome. 0 out of 50 had 30" totals like the OP had for the NW NC Mountains and SW VA.

RAH is all in for the Triad. Makes me a little uneasy. 

12 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

That's about as bullish as GSP ever gets, and I don't ever remember that much confidence 6-7 days out. That surprises me at this stage. 

Yea, RAH is wisely erring on the side of caution as they often do. They are mentioning that CAD favored areas may see at least a wintry mix of all P-Types Saturday night. 

6 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yes climo is a beast. Gonna be a lot of disappointed people if they model hug. The south trend will cease and the nw jog will commence in a day or two. Then once we get within 72 hrs the totals will come down to realistic totals. Climo favored areas north of 85 in SC and NC would be my guess at this point. And a few inches at max.

Yes I will be very surprised if the GFS doesn’t commence a more suppressed campaign for the next 24-48 hours. Always happens it seems. 

Just now, WidreMann said:

I read somewhere that the FV3 has a cold bias. Not sure if that's relevant to CAD events like this.

Global models underestimate the CAD, so it may be more of a realistic outcome. 

The 12z FV3 was a very cold run. 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2018120212&fh=162&r=us_ma&dpdt=

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2018120212&fh=162&r=us_ma&dpdt=