jjwxman

Well I mean if it's not going to snow... Nothing cleans the salt off the roads like a LCHS spin up. Nice sounding for Jan. over central NC Friday evening. 

Raleigh is considering upgrading portions of the NW Piedmont to a Warning in their afternoon forecast package.

Discussion:

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northwest and
Northern Piedmont including the Triad area for 1 to possibly 2
inches of wet snow. A Warning may be needed for portions of the
Northwest Piedmont and the Advisory may need to be extended
eastward with the afternoon forecast package...

Thundersnow reported in Jackson, MS earlier. 

The NWS offices across the deep south/ SE are reporting overachieving occuring. 

Looks like the classic case of GOM convection blocking moisture transport to me. Nothing can kill a storm system in the SE faster than GOM convection. 

I was happy with the Euro run. It was a good average between all the 12z data. I personally believe the best case scenario is Allen's first guess map. 1-4" would be a big win anywhere in NC before the Winter Solstice. Perspective, it's not even Winter yet.

But, without a CAD the WAA is less noticeable in the soundings even though it is definitely there. This set up is definitely unique to our usual snow set ups. Interesting times ahead!

One problem with that idea is there is no HP to the north. Much easier for WAA to invade without it IMO.

FWIW, the NAM 3km. Hr 60 is dangerous, but Warmer profiles noted.

At 54 dewpoints are in the upper 20's in the Triad. Upper 30's surface. Any moderate precip would be snow, per sounding.

You've been NAM'd

The 12z Euro snow accumulations:

Looks good for the Triad/Foothills.