PivotPoint

4 hours ago, frd said:

Ying and Yang...... wonder what happens in the East between December 25 th and January 7 th 2021.

 

 

  

 

Honestly, if we can ditch any Aleutian low and get ridging up around AK, continue a -AO regime with even a neutral to slightly negative NAO... that’s a good look for us. The southern jet is active. I’m not quite sure why that is. My understanding is La Niña doesn’t feature the southern stream but I feel like this weak Nina to neutral ENSO state has kept the juice flowing. I like the period after the big (potential) cold period right after Xmas. Dive that AO down and have the NAO switch directions heading up. Good signal for a Miller b that can toe the line as NAO relaxes a bit.

2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The NAO barely dropped below zero!

NAO hanging around neutral isn’t a horrible look for us as long as AO goes negative and PNA isn’t a rager. One thing I’ve learned in the mid-Atlantic... a -AO is almost better then a -NAO because when the NAO goes real negative we get suppression. And NC wins. And that sucks

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

That’s a pretty good signal for winter weather on the EC

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I was looking at Snowshoe since someone mentioned it was cheap earlier. Looking at Wisp it actually looks cheaper if I'm just looking for a condo to escape to for marginal events and then rent out the rest of the year. Hmmm...

Look at Seven Springs. Their residuals aren’t bad and it’s conveniently close to I-70.

26 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

She’s here but you may not approve. She’s more than two decades younger than me. 

33 and getting hot in here.

@ravensrule agrees. He’s just being a Debbie downer 

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Should be switching back for us over the next few hours

The whole event is over in a few hours

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it's a total nowcasting situation.

By the time the mid-levels return to snow sounding, all the forcing will be to our N/NE And we’ll be left with light snow and quick drying layers. Those from Winchester on wmeast are mostly done. Winchester might pull 1-2 more inches but lessburg on East is mostly snow tv  wth any backside moisture that falls as snow

People expecting an additional 3-4” from the pivot are overly optimistic. Ain’t happening. 

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I hate when things are sagging. 

Lol @ravensrule you’re a funny guy

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Come on man. 

Lol, I was trying to be funny. I’m not always good at ok!?

You guys are cute, fine

Back from Leesburg. Poop rain in Arlington, 33

We’re gonna get dry slotted in nova for a bit

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Just did second shovel. There was 3 times as much snow as first time. Nice driveway snow walls already.

First clearing of snowboard and I had 4.2 inches in the board. That means I picked up 1.7 inches in the past hour. Got another .3 in the 10 minutes it took me to shovel the driveway. 

4.2 inches so far and still dumping. Under 1/4 mile vb for sure

Congrats man. I think you’re primed. Here’s hoping you get over 12” brother!

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

extremely heavy snow in leesburg lol

Sitting at king st oyster. Was super heaving 10 mins ago. Hiked up raven rock trail an hour ago, and it was pouring snow up there. Almost 4” on the ground at 1000”

13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

New WSW just dropped at 10:30. Still going with 12-18 for the 81 corridor. Sticking with the GFS and Euro I suppose. 

Euro has better totals out your way. Gfs hasn’t had anywhere close to 18” in multiple runs. Given the warm air push and soundings I’ve been looking at all night, don’t see how you make it past 12”. I’d say 8-12” but either way it’s going to be a good event for you. Enjoy natures best show on earth 

Just now, Snowchaser said:

I’m starting my drive out to snowshoe, WV for this storm. ☃️
I’m expecting 8-12” if no mixing 18” is probably doable. 

I’ll be reporting the snowfall 

Good luck! Don’t forget the yard stick

No need for anyone to look at the icon, btw

2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I would not be shocked to see some 18-20” snowfall totals from this zone if they can stay ALL snow.

With potential QPF being around 2.

Just follow the neon glow 

Just now, csnavywx said:

That's still snow, but not particularly efficient. Saturation cutoff is around -10C.

Thanks. Is that evident by the dew point crossing over there?

Can @psuhoffman explain this sounding. This is the back edge. Do we lose lift here? Looks like there’s no snow growth...

Yea, I really hope so for you guys out there. But here’s a sounding from one of your “heavy bands” on the 3k. Dgz not where you want it for heavy snow. Looks like probably warm layer there somewhere. On the run it shows heavy snow. So I’d expect at least 3-4 hours of mix. Still, I think you guys pull 8-12. (Hoping more)

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pummeled

Careful with that 10:1, she’ll seduce you.. 

1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

My final call

Best of luck everyone! 

Looks about right. I wouldn’t change anything. Nice work

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Fully expecting a sleet bomb here in central carroll county before the storm makes its move NE. Some of our best storms have had sleet however. 

Yea, it’s not usually a big deal out your way. 2-4 hours of mix won’t ruin it for you. Dc on the other hand, 2-4 of mix might be all of our frozen lol. I got to look for properties in Leesburg 

Back side love (best kind)

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Better track this time on the NAM. Low is better organized and tracks mouth of bay to off OC it appears. I am on shitty maps so dont kill me if I am wrong. 

Maybe just slightly better track. But makes no difference . Thermals are still shot out this way. You’re ok but prob pouring mix at some point

0z

18z