PivotPoint

Thank god MN started this one... I feel the juju. I concede the se tick. Keep the ticks coming!

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. 

That’s the perfect way to put it. Charade is the right word. Some keeping acting like they don’t know how this plays out 15 out of 16 times. 
 

95 crew and even a bit west with this one are probably capped at 6”. Thinking more like 2-4 zone but maybe it pops. 
 

Everyone should just head to Leesburg that day. Get some food. Relax. If you’re able

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO.   

Yea, I kinda see it. And this might be too much parsing, but geeze I don’t think I would even call that a shift. I mean, the 0Z has colder temps to SW (albeit those look suspect, I agree). I dunno. Maybe it’s a tick colder. You’re right.

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yet the best guess precip type on all of the soundings at DCA at hr 90 is.... snow.  The entire column is fine till the last 50 meters

Eskimo beat me to it.. but I was going to say that if look caddy corner to the sounding the best lift is below the dgz and you’re right, it’s not horrendous but with air temps in the mid thirties and mixed precipitation... yoda, you know that doesn’t work in or near the city. Come on.

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Best lift is below the DGZ in that panel. Would probably be wet snow and some ice pellets. Still beats 35 and rain.

Thanks. And I agree. Also hoping for greater dynamic cooling with rates as ccb gears up and column cools top down to move that dgz up.

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

You’ve nailed a storm that is over 3 days away from starting?

I was kinda kidding but tbh, I fee like I’ve had a good wrap on this since Friday afternoon. At least best guess

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think he was forecasting the forecast.

Yea, I was kinda kidding but cool to see how years of lurking and learning gives me some confidence when I see mets show ideas similar to mine. Makes thae fact that I’m gonna get. A mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain a little more tenable.

By the way to reference my post from two days ago. My snowfall predictions That I posted are almost verbatim what most good Mets are squeaking today... I feel like I’ve nailed this one. Hope I’m wrong:

dc - arlington - McLean  2-6”

great falls, va - Leesburg 6-12”

Bluemont - Winchester 12-16”

west of Winchester, mountains, parts of central pa 14-22”

Just now, chris21 said:

Pivotal weather snow depth maps are notoriously inaccurate. I’d prob look at soundings and make your own determination rather than rely the snow depth maps. 

Funny I’ve always found them to verify well for marginal setups in nova. They’re typically underdone however when temps are more cooperative. 
 

Too me snowfall maps are the notoriously bad ones. Yea, but sounding is way to go...

This is when it’s suppose to be money time and it’s pouring snow in Winchester. Not here unfortunately 

36 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro made a 25-30 mile tick to the SE with the progression of the SLP and can be seen looking closely at 925mb and 850mb with the winds and it showed with the depth and extension west of the warmer air within the boundary layer. This was actually a step in the right direction. Also, I think the CAD is underdone considering the surface setup with the HP positioning over Quebec City and a strength of 1038mb. Thicknesses reflected were in line with GFS despite being more robust in the surface reflection. I think this will trend more favorable in the short term. Question is the tuck of the SLP once it gets to ORF. If it stays even 50 miles off the coast, we are looking at an epic run for many. The western crew and northern crew would undoubtedly get obliterated with that run. Absolutely no question. 

Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference  between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Not big change but agree that it edged back se this run. Did not continue NW.  I mean every 40 mile shift is huge either way.

What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually.

26 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It was gonna be epic. No doubt. 5H was pure weather porn

Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington

1 hour ago, yoda said:

disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol.  It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time.  06z GEFS support that.

No man. 0Z euro and 6z gfs are trending significant my worse for 95 crew. I use snow depth maps instead of snowfall, which most don’t want to look at but are way more realistic especially for cities. 
 

Plain truth is warm layers are farther west. Dca went from 9.9” to 2.4”. One op run but I can’t see how this isn’t worse. Ens are still good but like I’ve said for past couple of days. This will eventually shift more west and this is not surprising, and is not great (no sugar coat) for even those 10-15 miles WEST of the belt way. Great being relative, of course

 

0Z 

Little after the party snow showers too on GFS. How amazing would that be... drops a foot of snow then later next day a couple snow showers roll through for a quick .25” on top. Stuff of dreams

16 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

 

Add Seven Springs: 10-16”, 10% chance 20”+ 

48 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

Do realize we would be getting a decent snow a week before Christmas in our region if it is 6-12 inches and above. It's been a while since that happened, and we might still have the snow on the ground on Christmas Day itself with the cold temps.

Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm.

I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually.

We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation.
 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, 12+ is hard along 95 but you’ll be led astray 9 times out of 10 if you’re only using the clown maps to set your expectations.

Don’t ruin a perfectly excellent 8-9” event because you had inflated expectations watching the Euro op at 120 hours. That goes for any location along the EC.

Exactly. My expectation for dc has never been over 6”. No matter which juiced model I watch. It’s just not a solid setup for 95. Just isn’t.

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. 
 

Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. 

I feel like a west jog is almost inevitable given the modeled NE hp ever so slightly retreating over past two runs and PNA (again) just not quite as pumped as prior runs. 
 

We cant forget how MUCH we really need to go right in the mid-Atlantic (especially 95 crew) to get a 12”+ storm. It sucks actually. Total crap!

Eta: the total crap was not a jab at all by the way. Came out naturally lol

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

For posterity (for when it ends up totally wrong, hahahaa....)

Unfortunately, all too common. My call 2 days ago is still intact — 2-6” 95 crew. Winchester and mountains demolished. Not being Debbie downer (and it will flip flop) but this is the most likely outcome. Doesn’t matter for me — I’ll be surfing pow at 7springs or enjoying our anomalous foot here. Happy either way.

By the way, not that the Para has a handle but its decently warmer at 850 for 95 crew. Hoping the Euro ticks colder. Need that HP to sit a little snugger.

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Not sure if already posted but damn

Little mixy for most east of winchester. NY gets crushed. The low fully matures and mixing disappears as the low hits 40north .

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

#Jan2016...aka easiest tracking ever. But it's kinda rare!

100%. That was crazy accurate... it was like: just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

(every model run) 

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

The mean would be ineffectual guidance in this setup because it's blending the solutions together. The outcome will be all or nothing. You guys are seasoned veterans and this is 101 stuff.

Incorrect. Ensembles are not deterministic guidance, which are the individual op runs you're interpreting to be all or nothing, or individual members of the ensemble package designed to show degrees of variance eventually translating to a mean. Now, the ensembles do become less descriptive (in a sense) as you approach the event's starting point because the degree to which the synoptic set up varies, is greatly reduced as it greatly correlated to its time variable, i.e. as time to event decreases, synoptic variables become more certain. Hence using deterministic guidance -- op runs.  Ensembles 4-5 days out and using a mean to determine general themes is quite useful.

^ Run on thought... but thats the best way I can put it, as I understand it. A red tagger could be more eloquent with the phrasing. 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS mean is also impressive. Includes Monday's event.

That's a great looking ens mean 

Canada's on board.

Moved away a bit from the amped solutions over past 24hr, but tbh it has had the overall H5 a little better than Euro and GFS did 24hrs ago, imo. See if that holds.

It seems when we have stable blocking (relative) the models do much better in that 4-7 day time frame. Run-run consistency seems high. Haven't seen that since 2016 HECS -- during winter at least.

Of concern are the 2m temps here, per the 12z GFS during the height of the storm weds. However, given the time of year and other dynamics this storm will likely produce, it is possible most if not all DC stays vast majority frozen. Parts SE always struggle even in perfect setups

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Not annoyed.  Just pushing back on your bullshit

Wow, ok. 

2 hours ago, H2O said:

Comparing us to SNE is absurd. What’s also absurd is trying to make a small private weather board some sort of referendum on society as a whole. Government owes it to the citizenry to be transparent due to the fact it’s for the people, by the people. If this board and its owners chose to make everyone change their name to a number they owe you no explanation. It’s their board.  You CHOSE to be a part of it. 
 

You seem to have a certain notion as to what’s owed to you by the people who volunteer to moderate this sub forum. These people are tying to make it manageable for ALL that post here, not one or two people. Over the years the comments from most members is for more information and less clutter when storms approach. The people like yourself who seem to complain the most are the ones who just can’t accept that less blah blah blah and more info from red taggers and others well versed in this helps more than it hurts. There is another thread called banter for that purpose.  To complain that it’s an extra click to go from one place to chat to another place to read smacks of..well...laziness

 

i doubt you and I will ever agree on this. I see moderation at times as needed because people can’t control themselves. We see that time and time again here and in society as a whole. Sometimes that moderation will hit a member and they won’t like it. It is attempted to be applied as evenly as possible. The mods are doing this to help the board. There’s no fame or glory. 
 

If it bothers you so much to make this a never ending topic with you then you have every right not to be here.  To stay at a place that upsets you as much as it seems to doesn’t seem the best thing to do IMO

I think your view point is quite shortsighted and narrow. We don’t have to engage in a philosophical discussion (speaking of us specifically) that’s fine. 
 

But if constructive criticism rubs you the wrong way then that’s your prerogative. And again, i do think that you missed the point. It’s not clicking here or there, it’s how enforcement is applied. 
 

Additionally, by describing someone as a volunteer you’re implying that they’re providing there time, resources, etc for the benefits of others. Most would agree that’s general purpose of a volunteer. There are some really good red taggers on here. I always enjoy reading their insight. I hope my position doesn’t continue to bother you because you seem a little annoyed tbh. 

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

she had been joking around some lately...what's wrong with a casual comment now and then?  When things get really nasty and its nothing but a litany of attacks and complaints is when we need to reign it in a little...some fun is harmless.  

Yes, very much my point.

My other point is that moving posts is not a transparent process and it is applied sporadically. Being that we’re all proud weather geeks, we understand stats greater than the average Joe and could make a strong case (statistically speaking) that the application of the process is actually a “joke” in and of itself.

Im all for some good ole fashion banter, I mean look at the New England sub-forum... they’re funny and banter mid-thread ALL of the time. They’re not moving posts at the same frequency as “Uptight Sally” or “Take it Easy Tom”, down here. It’s just simply over used, and in my opinion capability should never equally ability. Meaning, Just because you have the capability to do something, does not mean you should be able to that something, endlessly, with zero oversight. That’s an abuse of power. Not complicated.

And a mod could say that there are checks and balances, but that’s like saying “we who made the rules, enforce the rules, and do not let anyone else participate in the above process, are totally fair and transparent.” Now more than ever in today’s world, we need people to own up to a fair and transparent process of how speech, and ultimately one’s viewpoints, are handled by those who have the issuing power to disseminate that information to the public. It may seem a silly point on a weather board but it’s not. It’s the seemingly “marginal” bits of freedom we give up a little at a time that go unnoticed, until one day you realize that isn’t TRULY free speech any longer. It really adds up fast too, those marginal concessions of “eh, who cares — it’s a weather board.” 

But small bits can add up quick. Take the case of the humble penny for instance...

“If I gave you a penny on day one and each day thereafter I doubled that penny I gave you from the previous day. After thirty days how much money would I have given you?” 
 

It’s a lot

4 hours ago, mappy said:

Moved this here -- you made a valid point that I listened too. I've backed off my "no banter" bullshit, and have let it go, and have bantered along with the rest of them.

So which do you prefer? No banter for all? Or banter mixed in with the discussion? you can't have it both ways. 

I’d prefer if moderators held their personal posts to the same standard they use to monitor member posts. Seems like sometimes there is a double standard. Like for example, randomly enforcing “banter” posts that wander off topic for a post or two, but then the mod turning around two pages later and going back and forth totally off-topic just because they can. It isn’t right, that’s all.

And truthfully, it deters membership growth which is strategically critical to keeping a forum operational over the long-term. On the surface, I think that the practice of moving posts or hiding them does not appear to be both a)well articulated to members and b) applied with consistency. Furthermore, the practice is confrontational, completely subjective, and typically unilaterally enforced. Most would agree that’s no way to run an organization that values transparency and equitable treatment of its members.

Alternatively, I think moderation inside of a thread (which I’ve seen you and others do) like, “move along” or “turn the page” is way less abrasive for the member and also demonstrates a higher degree of transparency. Additionally, it allows for more thread continuity while reading, and also reinforces that moderators are actively engaged in a process of evaluation that’s fair and transparent.

Obviously, if a post is verbally offensive or in any  way inappropriate, it should be addressed completely differently by the mods. Removing or hiding  etc.

I appreciate you acknowledging my viewpoint

Snow... the great uniter of people. 

As some would say: “this is the most important hh gfs run of the year.” Lol