PivotPoint

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Also a coupled PNA/EPO ridge.

I like where things are heading. Move gfs through time and the higher latitudes start to look in our favor. Combine that with a PNA that goes positive and a favorable Atlantic, I’ll take our chances late Jan-feb to score 1-2 solid events

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

love living north. snowing nicely, sticking and temp down to 35. Kid home. PJs on. 

I love that you live up there too. Stay there forever!

Crushing now in McLean 

10 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

10 am update to my WWA:

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches
  are expected over portions of eastern West Virginia and western
  Maryland, and 1 to 3 inches over portions of northern Virginia.

 

 

Nice!

42 here in A-Town ballston

I was pretty confident that the cities would inevitably get screwed. Gfs has been pretty steady overall with not giving outrageous total from such a fast moving system. Now the low level warming trend as event approaches has started. DC is in for less than an inch but points NW will still see a little more.

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Down to 33. Efficient rad cooling so far. Gfs looks solid

Gfs looks meh. Has rgem bubble forming around dc. Warmer too by a smidge

My gut says dc gets good snow tv but blanked on tha accum department. McLean on NW and Rockville points west see 1-2. Hagerstown cashes in. Winchester down to snowshoe and valley gets the goods on this setup.

Eitherway nice to be in the game. I’ve seen signs of PNA perhaps flipping and PAC jet finally slowing down a bit

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Snowshoe is gonna get lit up. Nice 

If we get 1-2” I’ll be estatic. Plus I work in Rockville and we all know the ROCKVILLE death band is real 

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Snowshoe is gonna get lit up. Nice 

Nam for the win!!

lol

I love how NOAA 10% chance is still <1".

What a joke. I think given the current guidance since last night... it's pretty clear that over an inch (even slightly) is a 1 in 10 chance possibility, imo

6 hours ago, mappy said:

yay a slushy inch!

Discussion thread... keep it clean!

This has the potential to rip a couple hours on the front end. It’ll be too warm for real accumulation but the omega for snow growth looks nice. Perhaps an inch to score a coup during the dark days

30 minutes ago, frd said:

Looking to down under for some positive signs for our weather ........   subtle indications changes are going to start by mid to late month.  

A recent post by Paul Roundy

I believe some new data on the IOD is set to release in two more days. 

 

  

The problem with “searching” for changes beyond day 10, is that stable features always degrade quicker on models than what happens in reality. There’s a unrealistic expectation that any model can predict even macro level pattern evolutions. Never has been done. So my thoughts are a super strong WPAC ridge has to have an equally strong counter influence at some point to change its reload pattern. Which generally speaking is trough west coast/ridge east coast. That general look will not change until that ridge stops reloading imo

55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Only conjecture at this range and who's to say the GEFS are right...but the colder 850 anomalies are sliding East at the end of the run. It is a faint light at the end of the tunnel.

Yes, we can hope

56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We can only hope:

 

Eta:GEFS has a more smoothed over -AO look but the signal is there at least. 

Not sure I see that signal. -AO perhaps but no mechanism to bring that cold to EC. WPAC ridge remains strong on this

Trough in the west shows persistencey across most guidance. I saw this west coast trough and western pacific ridge early on in October and later in November. Thought to myself “that’s not a good direction”.

Funny how these features can be hard to get rid of. Just like NAO blocking. Big pieces don’t always move so easily. Definitely thinking below avg snow fall this winter with avg to moderately above avg temps. Hoping we can pull off a couple -AO periods with PAC Jet settling down long enough to allow decent spacing for something to pop late January. 

Happy New Year 

Any update on Stowe or Jay by chance would be greatly appreciated. Have they been mostly snow or are the getting the mix bag?

Was thinking of making the hike up from VA but wanted to check with the local knowledge first. Thinking the upslope looks palatable perhaps through Thursday.

Thanks guys... congrats on the snow (or frozen, at least)

13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

12z HRRR went inverse-HDRPSRDSRSD.  0.0" along the 95 corridor and not much better elsewhere.

These type of setups rarely break in our favor. They always look more robust 2-3 days in advance and then evaporate inside 24 hours.

I think 95 corridor sees flakes with minimal stickage. NW sees up to 2”.

We know this song and dance, unfortunately.

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Basically what we have been seeing.  High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low.  0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see.

 

Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

Understood. Thank you

In the season of being thankful I’m thankful tracking something. And the Euro being semi onboard - for now.

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nice looking setup on the EURO through 168.

Please elaborate kind sir

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS seems equally spread out between amped/rain, mixed, or mostly snow from what I can tell. It hard to capture spread with a single time stamp but this shows it well enough. The only clear thing we don't want to see is a strong storm as all the strong solutions are the wrong ptype. 

 

 

The overall strength and track of this next rainer coming our way will really set the stage for the cold shot thereafter. A more westerly track of this next system with a strong LP that cuts hard across the lakes would favor us (IMO) for high pressure dropping deeper into the central states thereafter.

This would hopefully allow the retrieating HP more space and time to leave us with a solid CAD, in the event we get a strong enough shortwave to form in the first place. 

Im rooting for a strong system on this next one. Followed by deep dive of Hp into the plains and a shortwave that rides the boundary as the HP retreats to our NE. 2-5in with mix would be fantastic. 

1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

you were one of the biggest complainers in this thread.

go away.

Storm mode. Stay on topic

Rain suckssss

Lol at CMC 

we finish out the season with a foot as NYC collects 2+ feet to finish with a becs 

I (and ji) would not stand for that

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Includes tonight as well

Thanks

Man, so close